As of the evening of January 10, 2019, 34 listed brokers disclosed the monthly report for the last month of 2018. So far, the annual results of listed brokers in 2018 (parent company's caliber, the same below) have basically surfaced: in the context of the general downturn in the primary and secondary markets, the annual performance of listed brokers fell into a high probability event.

According to the monthly data for December 2018, 16 of the 34 listed brokers saw a net increase in net profit, 6 fell, and 12 losses.CITIC Construction InvestmentAccording to the securities analysis, the single-month revenue growth of brokerages mainly comes from the confirmation of quarterly interest income of self-operated and fixed-investment investment and asset management business; the differentiation of revenue and net profit growth is mainly due to the impairment of large-value stock pledges. mention.

The brokerage Chinese reporters simply added the parent company's performance data in the first three quarters of 2018 to the parent company's performance in the last three months, and obtained the annual results of the listed brokers last year (Note: The following statistics are based on this calibre). At present, 29 brokers have published the December 2018 monthly report and have the same year-on-year data.

onlyShen WanhongyuanSecurities,Founder Securitiesas well asFirst ventureThe three brokerages of securities last year saw positive growth in revenue year-on-year; the net profit of two brokers of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities and Founder Securities increased year-on-year, that is, the net profit of the listed brokerage company over 90% declined in 2018.Zhongyuan Securities,The Pacific OceanIt is the only two listed brokers with a loss throughout the year. The former has a loss of about 62 million yuan and the latter has a loss of 924 million.

A number of research institutions believe that competition in the securities industry will further intensify in the future. Under the background of continuous pilot projects of derivatives, overseas business and innovative business, head brokers can further strengthen the Matthew effect by virtue of their own accumulation and capital advantages.

Single month: 16 brokers' net profit increased quarter-on-quarter and 12 losses

Since mid-October 2018, due to the improvement of policies and market environment, brokerage stocks have changed, but in mid-to-late December, brokerage stocks have begun to fall as the overall market declines. In December, the average daily trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 296 billion yuan, a decrease of 23% from the previous month.

In terms of single-month results, the performance of listed brokers in December 2018 was huge. There are 24 listed brokers whose revenues have increased from the previous month.Huatai Securities,Dongxing Securities,Southwest Securities,Guotai JunanThe monthly revenue growth rate exceeded 150%; there were 9 brokerages with a decline in revenue, and Zhongyuan Securities’ revenue declined by nearly 30%.Western SecuritiesRevenue fell by nearly 20%.

In addition,Changjiang SecuritiesRevenue was negative, with a monthly revenue of -52.9075 million yuan, which is the only listed brokerage with a single monthly revenue. However, the revenue and net profit of its investment bank subsidiaries and capital management companies were positive, with a significant increase in the chain and year-on-year.

According to the year-on-year data, compared with the year-on-year decline in revenue in the previous months, the operating income of listed brokers in December increased and decreased by half.Guohai SecuritieswithGuojin SecuritiesThe monthly revenue growth of the single month exceeded 100%.

The monthly net profit data is generally worrying. Among the 34 listed brokers, there are as many as 12 companies with monthly losses, namely:Industrial SecuritiesFounder Securities,Northeast Securities, Southwest Securities, Guohai Securities, Western Securities, First Venture Securities,Nanjing Securities, Zhongyuan Securities, Changjiang Securities,Oriental SecuritiesAnd Pacific Securities.

Another 6 brokerage net profit fell from the previous month, respectivelyCITIC Securities,GF Securities,Tianfeng Securities,Huaxi Securities,Zheshang SecuritieswithHuaan Securities.

Dongxing Securities, Huatai Securities, Guotai Junan,Caitong SecuritiesThe net profit of 16 brokers increased against the trend in a single month. Among them, Dongxing Securities' net profit in December was 220 million yuan, up by 299% from the previous month. Huatai Securities' net profit in the month was 753 million yuan, up by 216% from the previous month.

In December, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.64%.Small and medium boardMeansIt fell by 7.56%. Guotai Junan Research Report believes that the decline in market activity in December 2018 and the deterioration of the self-operated environment of brokerages led to a large division of the performance of listed brokers in December.

According to CITIC Jiantou's analysis, the growth of brokerage's monthly revenue is mainly due to the recognition of quarterly interest income from self-operated and fixed-investment investment and asset management business; the differentiation of revenue and net profit growth is mainly due to the impairment of large-value stock pledge. The loss of the accrual.

Full year: over 90% of listed brokers' parent company's net profit fell, credit business risk broke out

In 2018, the average daily trading volume of A shares was 398.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19%. As of the end of December, the balance of the two financial institutions was 762.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26%. With the release of the monthly brokerage brokerage report in December, the overall performance of listed brokers in 2018 has generally surfaced. Consistent with expectations, the overall performance of brokerages in 2018 showed a downward trend.

On the evening of January 10,Guoyuan SecuritiesThe 2018 annual performance report was released. The consolidated revenue for the year was 2.57 billion yuan, down 26.80% year-on-year; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 684 million yuan, down 43.18% year-on-year. Guoyuan Securities explained that in the policy environment of de-leverage and strict supervision, the trend of the securities market continued to be sluggish in 2018, the market fell by a large margin, and the volume of securities trading shrank. In the face of unfavorable market environment, although the company strives to adjust its business structure and control the scale of venture capital investment, it is still difficult to overcome the decline in revenue of its main business.

The brokerage Chinese reporters summed up the performance of the parent company in the first three quarters of 2018 and the monthly performance of the parent company in the last three months, and obtained the performance of the listed brokers last year. At present, there are 29 brokers that announced the December monthly report and the same year-on-year data. Only three brokerages saw a year-on-year increase in revenue, and the net profit of the two brokers increased year-on-year, that is, over 90% of the listed brokerage parent company in 2018. Net profit fell.

Among them, CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan,Haitong SecuritiesThe revenue of the four brokerages of Huatai Securities exceeded RMB 10 billion. The net profit of the parent company exceeded RMB 5 billion for the whole year and temporarily ranked among the top four in the industry. Compared with the same period in 2017, the four head brokers' parent company's revenue and net profit declined in the whole year. Except for Huatai Securities' annual revenue and net profit, which fell by 30% year-on-year, the other three brokers' annual parent company Both revenue and net profit declined slightly.

Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, Founder Securities and First Venture Securities’ parent company’s annual revenue increased year-on-year, while the former two were the only brokers whose two parent companies’ net profit increased year-on-year. Their common point was that they received dividends from subsidiaries. . Shenwan Hongyuan Securities received a profit distribution of 1 billion yuan from its subsidiary Shenwan Hongyuan Western Securities in July last year. Founder Securities received a dividend of 900 million yuan from national securities in September, all of which boosted its performance.

Zhongyuan Securities and Pacific Securities suffered a year-on-year loss, of which Zhongyuan Securities had a loss of 105 million yuan in a single month in December. When the December monthly report was announced, Zhongyuan Securities issued a notice for the provision for credit impairment: in the second half of 2018, the company accumulatively provided for credit impairment of about 216 million yuan, which will reduce the net profit of the consolidated statement for the second half of the year by 162 million yuan. .

Pacific Securities disclosed in the monthly report that due to fluctuations in the securities market, the Pacific (parent company) made provision for impairment of approximately RMB 972 million, of which the purchase of resale financial assets was subject to impairment provision of approximately RMB 947 million. The provision for impairment of financial assets for sale was approximately RMB 24 million, resulting in a significant decrease in the net profit of the Pacific (parent company) in December. Excluding the income tax factor, the company's 2018 net profit was approximately RMB 729 million.

Credit business including equity pledge business is regarded as the biggest risk point for brokerage business in 2018. The brokerage Chinese reporter found out that many brokerages announced the announcement of the provision for impairment of assets last year, which was mostly related to the above-mentioned business.

On December 28, 2018, Industrial Securities issued a statement on the provision for impairment of assets. In 2018, the provision for impairment of assets for a single item totaled 651 million yuan, which will reduce the net profit by 488 million yuan, including 4 stock pledges. In the repo transaction business, the accumulated provision for assets was reduced by 608 million yuan.

Guohai Securities issued a related impairment announcement in October 2018, stating that in the first three quarters, the accumulated provision for impairment of financial assets purchased under resale agreements was 30,370,300 yuan, including provision for asset impairment on a stock pledged repo. For the period of 1998.59 million yuan, the stock pledged repo business was provided with a provision for asset impairment of 10.3844 million yuan.

ThunderingLetvWestern Securities, which is deeply mired in equity pledge, will make a provision for impairment of 439 million yuan in February 2018, reducing the consolidated net profit of 2017 by 330 million yuan. In August 2018, the announcement will be depreciated in the first half of the year. The loss was 187 million yuan, and the total profit of the current consolidated statement was reduced by 175 million yuan.

The brokerage asset management business is divided, Huatai Asset Management has the first year net profit

In 2018, the new regulations and supporting rules of the asset management have been successively launched. The brokerage asset management is in the stage of reshuffling the industry. Returning to active management will become the core competitiveness that brokers need to train.

Twelve brokerage companies announced their December 2018 performance data. Among them, the revenue of 9 brokerage companies increased from the previous month, and only 5 net profit per month increased. Among them, Guangda Asset Management and Huatai Assets' monthly net profit increased significantly. The net profit of Everbright's assets of 187 million yuan increased by 522%, and Huatai Assets' net profit of 187 million yuan, an increase of 98%.

It is worth mentioning that the Galaxy Jinhui and the Yangtze River Asset Management achieved a turnaround in December 2018. Both Donghui Ronghui and Xingzheng Assets Management suffered a single monthly loss.

According to the monthly report data, the total assets of the Eastern Asset Management, Huatai Asset Management, Guojun Asset Management, Guangfa Asset Management and Merchants Asset Management exceeded RMB 1 billion, of which the annual revenue of the Eastern Asset Management was 2.466 billion yuan. The revenue of the company was 2.355 billion yuan. Huatai Asset Management is the only asset management company with a net profit of over 1 billion in the whole year, with a year-on-year increase of 14.81%.

Due to the impact of the new regulations on the channel's superposition of assets, the development of brokerages in 2018 is facing an unprecedented dilemma. As of the end of 2018,securities companyIts subsidiary's asset management scale is 13.4 trillion yuan (including private equity funds of private equity subsidiaries of securities companies), which is 20.24% smaller than the 16.8 trillion yuan at the end of 2017.

GF Securities believes that the brokerage asset management is currently in a critical period of transformation, and the large collection will be on the same competitive platform as the public offering, and the channel-oriented asset management business will continue to shrink. It is expected that the overall asset management business will continue to adjust in size, and the profitability of the head brokerage business of the active restructuring will continue to rise.

Only one investment bank subsidiary's annual growth

From the point of view of investment banking business, as the first complete year after the most severe trial committee in history, the initial meeting (IPO) rate in 2018 was only 60%, setting a new low in the last 9 years. The number of companies in the meeting was also at a historically low level; According to IPO underwriting, 105 companies completed IPOs and landed in the A-share market in 2018. The number of IPOs and the scale of fundraising have been significantly reduced year-on-year. 40 brokers received a total of about 5.442 billion yuan in issuance expenses, compared with the 2017 industry-wide sponsorship income. Reduce by 65%.

Seven listed brokerage investment bank subsidiaries announced December performance data - single-month revenues increased on a quarter-on-quarter basis, with five net profit growth.

Among them, Huatai United Securities is far ahead, with a revenue of 366 million yuan in December and a net profit of 176 million yuan in a single month, a significant increase in the chain. Shenwan Hongyuan underwriting sponsored a net profit of RMB 0.17 billion, a slight decrease from the previous month; the company’s subsidiary Ruixin Founder’s net profit for December was a loss.

In terms of annual results, except for the annual net profit of Changjiang Securities underwriting sponsorship of RMB 12 million, a year-on-year increase of 134.81%, the net profit of the other five investment bank subsidiaries declined year-on-year, among which a venture capital bank and Credit Suisse Founder The annual net profit was a loss. Sino-German Securities' annual net profit was 0.05 billion yuan, down more than 95% year-on-year.

Tianfeng Securities Research Institute said that the central economic work conference mentioned the deepening reform of the capital market. The core is to create a new capital formation system, to cultivate the core functions of the capital market with Chinese characteristics, and to be intrinsic to the stocks of listed companies. A market entity with a truly responsible value, this market-oriented entity has a high probability of being an investment bank.

Outlook 2019: The Matthew effect is more obvious

The continued sluggish performance has forced the brokers to transform, and brokers are making drastic changes in pay reforms. The business model of the brokerage research institute is making a difficult transition.

At the end of the year, there were three large brokerage brokerage divisions renamed wealth management. At the same time, there were also leading securities to acquire the equity of small and medium-sized brokerage firms. In the future, the Matthew effect of the strong and weaker securities industry will be more obvious.

Huatai Securities Research Institute stated that the 2018 Central Economic Work Conference will increase the proportion of direct financing after three years. It is expected that in 2019, the establishment of the science and technology board and pilot registration system will be carried out, the quality of listed companies will be improved, the trading system will be improved, and the opening up will be accelerated. The supporting policies and measures for long-term funds entering the market and promoting innovative businesses such as derivatives will continue to be launched. At the same time, there is a possibility of further improvement in the market environment.

Guojun Non-Silver believes that the core driving force of the stock price of the brokerage sector in 2019 is the marginal improvement of policies, and leading brokers are still the biggest beneficiaries. Under the classification and supervision mechanism, leading brokers are expected to further develop their business and contribute more performance to Alfa, focusing on innovative businesses and varieties such as derivatives business, cross-border business and international business.

Haitong's non-bank financial team believes that under the background of deleveraging, brokers still have more points of view in the areas of science and technology, PB business, direct investment, asset management, derivatives business, and domestic and overseas linkage service models. It is expected that the future will become a new profit growth point. In the context of further strengthening competition in the industry and continuous piloting of derivative, overseas and innovative businesses, large brokers will be able to form the Matthew effect by virtue of their own heritage.

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