Xintian, Dynasty, these big brothers of the domestic wine industry, nowadays are the front waves, were photographed on the beach. Under the continuous attack of imported wine, if Zhang Yu is also a forward wave, the domestic wine industry may become a sea without waves.

文✎ Li Baibai

Edit ✎ Wang Siyuan

In 1892, 51-year-old Chinese rich Zhang Shishi came to Yantai with 3 million two silver.

Boss Zhang, who often travels to and from Europe, has a special liking for wine. This year, the Qing dynasty's industrialists were studying the railways and mining mines. Zhang Shishi, with 1.2 million imported saplings, quietly established China's first industrialized winery in Yantai.

Zhang Shoufu’s family is 80 million yuan in silver, which is equivalent to the finance of the Qing Dynasty. It costs 3 million wineries and Zhang Yu’s starting point is not low. Facts have proved that since 126 years of ups and downs, Zhang Yu has been the industry responsible for domestic wines.

However, Zhang Yu at the moment is facing a battle against the water.

01

Maotai's pocket money

Zhang Yu had the same name as Maotai, but his price was a world apart.

In 1914, a Qingtian native named Chen Qi, with 4,000 selected items from 19 provinces, went to the San Francisco International Exposition. Chen Qi will have 5 foreign languages ​​and professional households participating in the Expo.

Before the delegation’s departure, the government of the Republic of China, whose mood was as bad as the situation, did not intend to participate. However, the Americans have just dug through the Panama Canal, and they urgently need the world to praise them. They have sent special representatives to China twice. Finally, Yuan Shikai made a decision, "Awakening Eastern Powers" should support it.

Guizhou MaotaiIt was the biggest winner of the exhibition. Until more than 100 years later, Maotai also took the story of the anger and smashing from time to time for people to recall.

This time, it was praised as “the most successful World Expo in New China”. Zhang Yu also participated and won the gold medal. Compared with the medals that Maotai was questioned, Zhang Yu’s gold medal was genuine.

Changyu wine

Zhang Yu and Maotai not only went abroad to win awards, but also were frequent guests of the state banquet. The politicians of various countries they had seen each other made it difficult for any domestic wine company to look back.

In fact, the aspirational Guizhou Moutai has always demanded itself with the national wine standard. Zhang Yu is also the same. Maotai has always wanted to go international, and Zhang Yu has dreamed of the world first. The two cherished each other, even after the introduction of the "eight regulations" in 2012, the symptoms of the cold were exactly the same.

Regrettably, in the past 6 years, Maotai and Zhang Yu have come out of different lives.

Guizhou Moutai

From 2000 to 2017, the post-tax net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in Guizhou Maotai increased from 250 million yuan to 27.079 billion yuan, a compound growth rate of 31.73%. 2000 net profit is higher than MaotaiYanjing BeerThe compound annual growth rate of net profit for the 17 years is -2.82%.Zhang Yu AThe net profit compound growth rate was 13.12%.

In the first half of 2018, Changyu A's revenue was 2.82 billion yuan, accounting for more than half of the total revenue of 14 listed wine companies. The domestic wine industry is well-deserved. However, comparing Maotai, it can be called "the fallen nobles."

According to the data of January 9. The value of Kweichow Moutai is about 780 billion yuan, and Changyu A has been opened up by 760 billion yuan. Hard work earned 1 billion yuan a year, but it is Maotai's pocket money.

Zhang Yushi must have never imagined Zhang Yu, who has witnessed the ups and downs of Chinese wine for a hundred years, and his situation is still very delicate.

Although expensive for the domestic wine industry leader, but the big brother is not good, Zhang Yu A fell from the peak in 2013, the performance has been low for six consecutive years, under the aggressive attack of imported wine, domestic wine companies almost collapsed. Zhang Yu is a rare survivor in this war.

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02

Foreign enemy attack

Zhang Yu’s current situation is mainly due to the impact of imported wine.

According to industry insiders, in 2011, the Sino-foreign wine campaign started. Surprisingly, there is basically no control over imported wine in China. A Chinese company imports wine, except for industry and commerce, taxation, no permission, no quota, and people can go straight to the battlefield.

New Zealand, Chile, Australia and so on are all major wine producers. In 2012, New Zealand became the first country to enjoy zero tariffs on imported Chinese wines. Chile also enjoyed this policy in 2015. Georgia and Australia have recently achieved zero tariffs.

Under the tariff assistance, the average profit of the Chinese grape industry is 10%, and the profit of imported wine can reach 15%-20% or even higher.

Agents saw the opportunity. In 2015 alone, China's Chilean wine importers soared from more than 400 to more than 900, and hundreds of thousands of tons of imported wines poured in. The domestic liquor companies were caught off guard.

Imported wines sold in supermarkets

If zero tariffs open the city gate for the importing wine army, the tax policy limits the counterattack of domestic liquor.

According to media reports, foreign wine production uses a large number of agricultural subsidies, and the grapes are subsidized to promote wine products to go abroad, but Chinese wine taxes are relatively high.

Under the internal and external attacks, the Chinese wine low-end market was quickly captured. Especially after 2012, it ushered in a cliff-like decline, and there was no protection for the dynasty, Xintian, and the boxing in the melee.

Changyu is one of the largest listed wine companies, both in terms of net profit and revenue, and is far ahead of domestic competitors. But in the face of foreign enemies, it also suffered heavy losses.

Zhang Yu A's 2011 net profit was 1.907 billion yuan, slipped to 1.03 billion yuan in 2017, nearly half of the decline in the heyday. Operating income was from 6.028 billion yuan in the heyday of 2011, and fell to 4.9 billion in 2017.

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Zhang Yu is not without a chance.

Zhang Yu has cooperated with France's Castel Brothers Simplified Joint Stock Company, the largest wine company in Europe, to establish a high-end winery. In this imported wine war, Zhang Yuben can cooperate with the Castel brothers to get the exclusive agent.

However, in the process of restructuring, the former boy who wanted to hold Changyu lost to Maicheng, and 33% of the shares were accidentally taken away by Italian wine companies, and the two sides parted ways.

The Custer brothers then worked with other Chinese agents and doubled the number of wine bottles imported. The pioneering wine industry established by Zhang Yu is not a pioneer in the import of wine, and it is a second time delay.

Zhang Yu once wanted to re-energize on imported wine. The industry generally believes that "the pattern of China's imported wine agent industry is initially fixed, and it is difficult for Zhang Yu to break through."

03

The crisis is still

For domestic wine companies, it is the toughest year every year.

Before 2011, the domestic wine market share was as high as 90%, but now, imported wine has surpassed half of the country, and this trend has continued.

According to public data, in 2017 China's domestic wine production fell by 5% to 1 million tons, and imported bottled wines increased by 15% to 550,000 tons.

Imported wines from supermarkets

In 2017, sales growth of wine companies above designated size was negative 9%. The decline in profits and the slowdown in growth are not only the labels of the Chinese wine industry, but also the reality that Zhang Yu is encountering. Since the fall of the cliff in 2013, Changyu A’s revenue and profit continued to be sluggish.

The growth of imported wine seems to be an irreversible trend.

According to the city's understanding, among the four first-tier cities, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have good drinking atmospheres and consumers are becoming more professional. In June 2018, in the Beidan Desuo wine tour held in Shanghai, the scheduled fare was 800 yuan, still full of people. However, imported wine is the beneficiary of the feast.

According to China Customs data, in 2017, the top three provinces in terms of wine imports were Shanghai, Guangdong and Shandong, and the market share of the three provinces (cities) was 62.69%; the market share of the top five provinces was 78.94%; The market share of the ten provinces totaled 96.7%.

Imported wine is being re-partured by more provinces and municipal markets, and sales channels are sinking. In March 2018, Viorel Garaz, global marketing director of the Moldovan Grape and Wine Bureau, revealed in an interview that five cities, including Ningbo and Chengdu, will be the main markets in the future.

Marketing expert Yang Yonghua told the city that wine is not China's dominant industry, just as 80% of domestic beer is the same as foreign brands and foreign brands. In the future, domestic wines will also be acquired and acquired by foreign wine companies.

As the import of wine channels continues to sink, the battle for second and third-tier cities is about to fill the smoke. If this battle falls, the situation faced by domestic wine companies will be even more embarrassing.

Large enterprises lose share, and small businesses face life and death.

Just when Zhang Yu was tired of coping with “external troubles”, a trademark war that lasted for 10 years also made him feel bad. Zhang Yu’s decision-making mechanism, operational efficiency, and lack of incentives for sales staff have also been criticized.

In 2011, Zhang Yu once insisted on investing 6 billion yuan to build an “international wine city” in the midst of overcapacity. The first phase of investment is 2 billion yuan.

In the golden decade of China's wine industry, Zhang Yu took the lead and laid out the popular market, creating one of the most important large-scale items of domestic wines, “Xie Baina”.

Zhang Yujie Baina

There is no clear ratio of raw materials and there is no fixed brewing process. In 2001, the application for the registration of the trademark of Cabernet was submitted to the State Administration for Industry and Commerce. In April of the following year, Zhang Yu got the registration certificate, but the certificate was not in the hands of the certificate. It has been opposed by other companies. Everyone thinks that the three words of Cabernet come from grape varieties and are the public resources of the industry.

In July 2002, the trademark of Cabernet was revoked. In June 2008, the Trademark Commission ruled that “Xiebaina” was owned by Changyu Group, and more than a dozen companies headed by the Great Wall and Dynasty also embarked on the appeal road. Until 2010, the Beijing Higher People's Court mediation, the six companies including Great Wall and Veyron can use Cabernet free of charge.

At this point, the ten-year trademark dispute came to an end. However, the damage caused by market chaos to Cabernet needs time to make up for it.

04

Jedi counterattack

Zhang Yu is still the vanguard of the domestic wine industry. He ranks fourth in the world in terms of annual sales volume, and his performance has gradually stabilized.

In October 2018, Changyu A's third quarterly report showed that operating income from January to September was 3.86 billion yuan, up 1.65% year-on-year; net profit was 769 million yuan, down 5.69% year-on-year. If government subsidies continue to grow, most of Zhangyu's data The number must be added to the front, which also continues the trend of net profit decline in the semi-annual report.

The Pacific OceanThe Securities Research Report pointed out that it was mainly due to the slowdown in the growth of low-end wine.

Under the continuous attack of imported wine, the low-end market of Chinese wine has fallen. Changyu, who once wanted to "close to the people", faced a dilemma in the face of the low-end market.

With the import of foreign languages, not only does it satisfy the sense of vanity, but more importantly, its price does not put too much pressure on the consumer's wallet.

According to industry insiders, the cost of domestically produced wine has continued to rise as the price of imported wine has been falling.

At the end of December 2018, some dealers had a communication letter from Zhang Yu. After the documents listed such as brand, upgrade, cost increase, etc., the document announced that since January 1, 2019, the invoice price of some products has been raised.

Changyu's price-raising products are mostly products with large sales volume and low price. Although the increase is not large, but the scene is very familiar, in November 2017, Zhang Yu has carried out a round of price adjustment, the adjustment range is about 2% -10%.

The price increase is a way for Zhang Yu to cope with the decline in profits, but as a dealer, “pressure is big”.

It is difficult to raise prices, and transformation is more difficult. It is not easy to blow Zhang Yu in the mid-to-high-end market. According to the market, the high-end wine market of more than 300 yuan in China is also occupied by imported wine.

Faced with the staking of imported wine, Zhang Yuzheng, who is positioning the high-end and high-end, launched an overseas counterattack.

In January 2018, Changyu officially announced that it will invest A$20.605 million in cash and acquire 80% of the equity of Australia's Grange Winery. The remaining 20% ​​will continue to be held by the original core management of the Chateau. According to statistics, this is the fifth overseas acquisition of Changyu.

Zhang Yu acquires Chateau Winery (Source: Changyu official website)

Previously, Zhang Yu successively acquired the French Fuldo Cognac and Bordeaux Mickey Wine, spending €26.56 million to hold the Spanish Aiou Group. In 2017, Changyu signed an agreement with LAMBOSPA to jointly contribute US$48.83 million in Chile. Established a "base".

Changyu has an important layout in the world's major wine producing countries, well-known production areas and outstanding brands.

The Chateau Winery is a famous winery in an international winery. Since its inception in 1997, nearly 30 wines have received 90 points from Robert Parker. Robert Parker's rating is known for its rigorousness. The acquisition of Song Yu by Zhang Yu represents the possibility that the Chinese wine industry will finally have a name for it.

(Source: Changyu official website)

The largest constellation group in the United States has dozens of wine brands. The logic of Changyu is that if you want to have more brands in the short term, the shortest and best way is to acquire.

Geely may have thought about it when it acquired Volvo. However, Zhang Yu can not hold the last position of domestic liquor, and needs to fight back. According to industry insiders, Haibao Winery may be an important growth point for Changyu's future, but the import business needs long-term training, and the current performance is very limited.