Introduction: Since August 2018,Mobile InternetThe price of network traffic began to show a trend of price cuts; the media and entertainment industry did not have "counter-cyclicality". In 2019, the market must pay attention to these two "big things", they may decide the mediathe InternetThe industry has not changed much in ten years.
One, two big things and one small thing
1, mobile Internet traffic prices began to decline
Whether based on our own data or qualitative perspective, we can draw a conclusion, namelySince August 2018, the flow of the whole network has shown a trend of price reduction, which has never been seen in the past ten years.So it is called a big change in the past ten years.
In the 12 years since the mobile Internet first year in 2007, most of the time, the global mobile Internet and Internet traffic prices are rising.Now we have observed the trend of price cuts, and we can confirm this trend from a qualitative perspective. For example, several large Internet advertising platforms have lowered their KPIs in 2018, and most of the Internet-based companies rely on advertising as the core company. The three quarterly reports have performed more than expected, and more than expected, includingFocus MediaSuch offline advertising platforms have also been affected.
2, the media and entertainment industry does not have "counter-recurring"
We did a regression analysis of the form of Internet entertainment and offline entertainment formats, mainly based on US data, and the conclusion wasThe media and entertainment industry is actually not anti-cyclical.If we use the data of the United States in the past 30 years as the benchmark, on a quarterly basis, the film industry isAperiodicSex or weak cyclical industry; but if calculated on an annual basis, film and video are strong cyclical industries.
So depending on whether the investment cycle is quarterly or annual, if it is a long-term value investor, you should agree that the film and the game will be good when the economy is good. Of course, from a technical point of view, because of the rhythm of the release of the work, there may be some non-periodicity, but there is no counter-cyclicality. So there is no so-called lipstick effect, which is hard to prove from the data.
3. The tone of regulatory strictness will not change suddenly in 2019.
Another little thing is thatThe tone of regulatory strictness should not change suddenly in 2019.Although the game version has been restored, and the State Council has also introduced financial and tax support policies for cultural enterprises, we believe that supervision is generally stricter.
4, the problem is mainly at the demand side
In 2018, among the big advertisers in the Internet advertising industry in China, the game industry was badly hurt, because the factors of the sector caused serious problems; the growth rate of the e-commerce industry double 11 Ali Jingdong was a record low. It’s really a lot of growth, but it’s just a platform;real estate, these two industries are very strong, not to mention;Net financeUnder the strict control of the country, in the deleveraging environment, there should be no major achievements; the rapid elimination may be relatively less affected by the economy.
When advertisers' overall budgets are more serious, their prices may fall.In the past few years, advertisers have been rushing to spend money at the end of the year, but in the fourth quarter of 18 years, many advertisers are cutting budgets. From social communications, e-commerce traffic, distribution of entertainment, content tools, and in-game advertising, advertising prices in these areas have declined.
Second, the mobile Internet ecosystem
1. "Four major ecosystems" for head applications
At the end of 2018, we can divide the head applications of the Internet into four major ecosystems, Tencent, Ali, Baidu, and headlines. Baidu is relatively backward behind, only iQiyi Baidu and Baidu map, and the management of iQiyi is still independent. The headlines that are raised are mainly headlines and vibrato. Although it looks small, it is going up, there is hope to replace Baidu.
2. “Six Ecosystems” for waist application
There are 35 applications in the user base of the waist application from 200 million to about 80 million. Tencent, Ali and Baidu still have a high level. Headline also has volcano video, watermelon video two waist or quasi-head applications. The millet, Jinshan, and cheetah owned by Lei Jun are probably small and complete systems. There is also the 360 series, or someone called Zhou Hongyi.
In the waist, the layout of Tencent's market is still relatively perfect, so many people criticize Tencent as a strategic investment company. But it is undeniable that its layout in the waist area is quite perfect. Ali is now investing more in the application field after ranking 25. For example, if it is hungry, it will be won in 2018. The scope of the word-of-mouth application into the waist should be only a matter of time.
3, the startup company must stand
The two largest Tencent, Ali and two second-largest Baidu, headline four ecosystems, almost completely divided the head application, and also occupy a pivotal position in the quasi-head or waist market.Now any startup company or company in the pre-market stage must consider which system to rely on when making strategic financing.Now I see a little more than the Tencent department, but the strategic investment formula since the Ali system has also won a lot. Baidu is relatively backward, and the headlines are mainly hatching in its own system, such as vibrating, volcanoes and watermelons.
If you don't go to the team as a startup, the difficulty of going up is very big.Just like the company listed in 2018, iQiyi is Baidu. The B station started with Tencent. Later, Tencent and Ali all bought shares, so there is one on both sides. At the end of the year, Ali has re-invested the already-listed Ali Films in the system. In 2019, Ant Financial will be listed, it is a very important company of Ali. After the spin-off financing, it is also possible to go public separately. Tencent and Tencent Music have just listed. There is also the Himalayan is the most popular audio application, it also accepted Tencent's strategic investment in July last year, and began to link with Tencent video.
So for startups, the opportunities in the future may be more embarrassing and must rely on an ecosystem to grow.The two systems of Tencent Ali are still the most complete layout. Although the headline has impacted Tencent or Baidu, the headline and Baidu are still in the same order of magnitude on the overall user base. They have not yet reached the ranks of Tencent and Ali. To the point.
4, the "five circles" of the head Internet company
We divided the head Internet company into five circles, with the user base as the horizontal axis and the user viscosity as the vertical axis.The company with the highest user base and user stickiness is called the overlord.At present, there are only Tencent and Ali.The user base and the user's sticky level are relatively high, called the potential hegemon,There are mainly headlines today, ant gold clothes, Weibo, and the US group. It may be possible to count more. However, these potential hegemons have basically stood up, such as ant Jinfu and Weibo are Ali, and the US group is a lot of Tencent.Only the headline family has not yet stood, so the headline is actually the only company that can enter the ranks of the hegemon.
The third type is called the former hegemon, the user base is large, but the user stickiness is relatively low.This is mainly a company that has slowly fallen from the PC-end era, such as Baidu and 360. Their challenge is whether they can re-raise the user's stickiness in the future.The fourth is the largest local overlord, or the market leader, which is stronger in a vertical field, but the overall strength does not reach the highest volume.For example, B-station, reading, 58, Ctrip, and vertical social Momo may also be possible in the future.
The last type is called a lost person, and has a certain user base, but it is not big, and the user's stickiness is also at a level that is getting worse.It is equivalent to the tail of the crane in the head Internet company. It is rather confused in the future. For example, Mito, Vipshop, and Sohu belong to this category. The future of such a company is nothing more than two directions, either acquired and become part of several systems such as Tencent Ali. For example, after Vipshop accepted the shares of Ali, Tencent and Jingdong, it was slowly going up. The second is to convert to an investment company and incubator. For example, Sohu hatched a sogou swim.
Of course, the macro economy has entered a relatively slow growth cycle. For most small and medium-sized Internet companies, what they have to do now is to survive, and they have not yet entered the strength of the five circles.
Third, there is no counter-cyclicality in the Internet industry.
1. Media Internet Industry
We analyzed the data from the United States and found thatThe media and entertainment industry is not anti-cyclical or even pro-cyclical.If annual data is used for analysis, the correlation between movie box office and game revenue is very high in relation to GDP and disposable income. But the United States in the past three decades has been a country with rapid economic growth in developed countries, and the overall situation of movie box office and game income is also going up. Then it is possible to make a so-called false positive error, and the coincidence factor in the estimation result will be relatively large.
So we calculate by quarterly units, there is indeed a little non-cyclical factor in it. Therefore, we can only say that at least from a quarterly perspective, media entertainment has some non-periodicity. From an annual perspective, the periodicity of movies and games is relatively strong, so we can't agree with the idea that the entertainment industry has a lipstick effect.
2. E-commerce industry
We found that Tmall's growth rate in most of the year was lower than the same period last year. Baozun E-commerce is the highest end of Tmall's flagship store. Now there are about 200 high-end brands in the Tmall flagship store. It can be seen from the monitoring data of Baozun E-commerce that the decline in GMV growth since September this year is more obvious, and has not been significantly promoted by Double 11. So we can thinkThe e-commerce industry also has almost no acyclicity.
Fourth, the Internet head product development strategy in 2019
1, the pursuit of user time is stupid
Yesterday, Zhang Xiaolong gave a speech on the small program, and the small program may become a more important new traffic entry in the future. But he thinksIt is a very stupid thing to pursue user time.Because if it is a tool application, such as WeChat, it can also be considered a communication tool. It should increase efficiency and should not stay in this application. If it is a news information application, the user's length is very long, indicating that the user cannot obtain the desired information in a short time, indicating that the news application is incompetent. The consumption of entertainment content may be as long as the user length, such as Tencent video, vibrato, etc., but Zhang Xiaolong said that many video sites now look at long content when you like to press the fast forward button, meaning to lengthen the time. The practice violates the natural will of the user.
So don't pursue the growth of the user's duration. The vibrato and the fast hand have its powerful place, but they are not so powerful in taking up the user's time. This is a practice. What's amazing about them is the tonality of the content in the short video field.
2, short video enters a steady growth period
We believe that all short videos have entered a period of steady growth, and now the number of daily users of vibrato is almost 130 million. This number has slowed down since August 2018. The fast hand has almost stopped growing, and the MAU has stopped at about two or three billion. The volcano and watermelon are actually going downhill, and the peak is almost in the first and second quarters of 2018. Fast hands and vibrato are still growing tenaciously, but the growth rate has been slower. The fast-handed MAU is higher than the vibrating, but the fast-handed DAU is lower than the vibrating, and the vibrating user's very sticky is its advantage. But the fast hand has never been pulled by the vibrato.The two strong positions have not changed.
The task of short video applications in 2019 is to do cash, not to think that users have a particularly large increase. Now the advertisements of vibrato and fast-handed are already good, and the fast-handed shop is still open. The vibrating advertising revenue can continue to go up, for example, a lot of advertising on the vibrato. Therefore, the diversion of the vibrato platform is useful, and it is still very good to realize the e-commerce diversion by advertising or realizing the e-commerce diversion with Ali in the future.
The last point that needs to be emphasized is that it is not harmful to others if the user market of an application increases. For example, is the rise of the vibrato sound harmful to Tencent, iQiyi, and Weibo?The Internet industry is not a dark forest, it is a win-win situation.
3, fight a lot with Ali
The 17-year vibrato is a phenomenon-level product, and the 18-year-old fight has become a new phenomenon-level product.Our conclusion is that the MAU of all e-commerce types is growing in 2018, the penetration rate of e-commerce has not yet peaked, and it is still infiltrating into third-tier cities. This is why Alibaba has sponsored the Spring Festival Gala for three consecutive years in 2016, 17 and 18, and 16 years and 17 years are Alipay's 18 years of Taobao, just to grab the county level and the village-level market.
The user base of Taobao Jingdong is actually growing, and it is natural to make a lot of growth.Although basically from about 16 years in the past two years, from the user base close to zero to the current user base of 200 million or so, there is no WeChat small program, if you do not have to go through 300 million. But this user is not robbed from Taobao. I don't approve of the user who grabbed the phone from Tencent, and I don't agree to grab a lot of things from Ali.
The rise of a lot of fights, the first is the victory of social e-commerce.Ali's social e-commerce is carried out through Weibo, Vibrato, Alipay and so on. Originally, there was no e-commerce giant on the huge WeChat platform. Jingdong was given the entrance by WeChat, but because Liu Qiangdong was more stubborn and wanted to be an independent platform, it did not rely on WeChat, so the huge user base of WeChat 1 billion was originally Not well used by e-commerce, and the traffic system between Ali and Tencent is not interoperable, soA lot of people are the first to find the key to using the huge 1 billion WeChat user group.
In the future, social e-commerce will become a popular term, whether it is the social e-commerce of WeChat acquaintance chain, or the content-based e-commerce similar to B station and fast hand will go uphill in the future. And there are a lot of WeChat applets and e-commerce embedded in the public number, which is ignored by everyone. We have repeatedly stressed that the relationship between Ali and Ali is not a zero-sum game. If you can really multiply the business of the five-ring business in the village and township level, these users will slowly go to the high-end in the future and will become Taobao Tmall. User.
The GMV of more than 18 years is estimated to be more than 400 billion yuan. This level is still only about 1/10 of the Ali system, and it does not constitute a direct competition. However, after a lot of alarms for Ali, Ali will react as much as possible to social e-commerce and low-city e-commerce.
4, vibrato and Tencent
We believe that the vibrato is not harmful to Tencent, because according to the data, when the vibrato rises, the number of QQ music and national K songs of Tencent has also increased. For a period of time, the monthly user of QQ music has a very obvious overlap with the growth of the vibrating user. This is why there are nine downloading and listening songs in front of QQ music. Not to mention.
This is the spillover effect of the vibrato.Through a video ranging from 15 seconds to two minutes, a song was brought to the fire, and the vibrato itself earned traffic, and successfully cultivated the net red. The vibrato earns money from the growth of the traffic ecology, because the vibrato does not make copyright, and does not want to do live broadcasts. After the user has shaken the consumer demand for music net red, he will definitely have the demand for continuous consumption. He will go to QQ music, national K songs, and even go to Momo, YY. Therefore, we repeatedly emphasize that we should not be narrow-minded. Everyone who has no hatred with anyone can make money together.
Fifth, the game industry: What is the growth of eating chicken shadows in the past
The question we are paying now is, how about 19 years of Tencent, Netease, Jinshan, Perfect and other big game companies? Our basic view is that it is difficult to have explosive growth in 19 years. In 2017, the mobile game industry is close to 50% growth rate. The actual growth rate in 2018 is estimated to be within 10%. If the market grows by 20% in 19 years, it is good. It is.
1, the head game product life cycle is greatly shortened
Assuming there is no version number problem, the market in 2018 will be the only one who eats chicken.Other game companies can't find the explosion, and Tencent is hitting new heights by eating chicken. There is no way to hide the fact that Tencent games can't do anything except eat chicken. Tencent's "Stimulus Battlefield" downloads are so high, and they have a sucking effect on games of all other companies. These games will not work. It can be seen that after July 2018, most of the game downloads released by Tencent are not optimistic.
Tencent has been unable to promise partners how much traffic they can give, because a lot of traffic was sucked away before the end of last year. Now eating chicken may tend to decline, but will there be new explosions? For example, Tencent is testing "Dungeon Warriors" and Netease is testing "Diablo Mobile Games". In 2018, the life cycle of head games products of Tencent and NetEase was greatly shortened. In 2018, only two new games in the year of the year, "QQ Speed" stopped in the forefront of the best-selling list for a long time, and other games basically Leave the top 20 in the bestseller list within 3 to 6 months.
Of course, at the end of 2018, Netease pushed a "after tomorrow", and has stopped at the forefront of the bestseller list for two months. But in addition to "After tomorrow", the life cycle of all popular games launched in the past few months is very short.
2, the game version number approval returned to normal
After the game board resumed approval, there were not many games covering the head company. From the perspective of the distribution pattern, there is a relatively strong randomness, and there are not many rules. Now there will be a few days each month to distribute the version number, which is about 80 per time.
We don't know how many rounds will be put in a month. If we can put four rounds and five rounds a month, it may be five or six thousand in the whole year. Is the total game control not implemented? Because the 5,000 editions are almost enough to meet the needs of most companies. If you only put two or three times a month, the version number is still quite tight.
Moreover, not only Tencent and Netease have received a lot, but the number of game editions that are really owned by listed companies is not much, so the law of the issue number is still being explored. There is a saying that the review staff of the Publishing Bureau is very scarce now, and now 5,000 games are waiting to be issued, but we don't know if these games are strictly in the order of first come and then.
Because the proportion of big factories in products is relatively low, of courseFor large companies, it does not depend on the number of the product number, or whether the head product can get the version number.
For Tencent, instead of taking the number of ten new games, it is better to take the version of "Dungeon Warrior Mobile Games". For NetEase, the version number of Diablo Mobile Games is more important. We judge that the possibility of eating chickens in the short-term is relatively low, because since the beginning of 2017, China has not approved Korean games, and the import of Korean cultural products is in a state of disconnection. In addition, the developer of the blue hole chicken game is more cautious about this issue, because if you want to review it, you must cooperate with the Chinese regulatory authorities to make some adjustments to the content, including making major adjustments to the art and even the entire game worldview.
As a Korean company and a small company, Blue Hole is not short of money because it has already made a lot of money around the world. It wants to take into account the long-term operation of IP, and it is impossible to be completely consistent with the interests of Tencent, and it is impossible to fully comply with the requirements of Chinese regulatory authorities. So in the short term, there is no hope for eating chickens to get the version number. This is in itself beneficial to SMEs, because if you get the chicken to get the version number will absorb a large part of the income, and now this part of the income may be divided by many SMEs.
6. E-sports live broadcast: one of the few highlights in 2019
The live broadcast industry itself is now highly headed. In the live broadcast industry, Momo and YY are two live broadcast giants. Fighting fish and tiger teeth are two e-sports live broadcast giants. The MAU and DAU of these four applications are among the highest in the industry. . In 2019, the growth rate of Momo and YY may have to go to the next level, because in 2018, Mo Mo and YY actually ate the bonus of the vibrato, and many of the vibrating net red anchors will bring their own heat to these two platforms. , produced a spillover effect. 2019 certainly does not exist, because the vibrato has passed the fastest growing period and entered a period of steady growth, and it is unlikely that there will be too much excess traffic overflow. So Mo Mo and YY are only a dozen times more dynamic PE, mainly for this reason.
But the esports live broadcast is very good. In 2018, we can see Wang Sicong's IG win. Everyone knows that Wang Sicong has called the club IG overnight. It won the League of Legends. In addition, at the Asian Games in Jakarta from August to September 2018, the Chinese team won the gold medal of three gold medals in the e-sports. The People’s Daily newspaper congratulated Deng Wen, and it should be a very positive report from the official media on the Internet industry in 2018.The whirlwind brought by the IG won in 2019 and the Asian Games won will further strengthen the trend of e-sports live broadcast.
However, the e-sports live broadcast industry is still looking for a profit model, because the live broadcast of the show is to see the beauty, most of the audience is male, of course, willing to reward. The game's rewarding power is actually insufficient. The probability that a good game anchor is still a beauty at the same time is not high. Even if it is a beauty, playing a game cannot be interactive from day to night, so the willingness to reward is relatively low. Some platforms have engaged in quiz, but the country itself is still sensitive to this issue, and the quiz should not be gambling.
Next, the variables of the live broadcast platform are betta, tiger teeth and Tencent's penguin esports. Who can become the last big man on the market.But fighting fish and tiger teeth are actually a family, and they have all been invested by Tencent. Tencent also has penguin esports, and there is also the possibility of merger between the future fighting fish and tiger teeth. However, the gap between the second-line live broadcast platform and the four giants is getting bigger and bigger. For example, the user base of the live broadcast of the live broadcast and the live broadcast of the pepper has actually been pulled far, and the live broadcast of Tencent’s own, the platform of Wang Sicong’s panda tv, and the first line. The gap is getting bigger and bigger.
Seven, 360 system or will fall into the bottleneck
The 360 system is now divided into two parts, some of which are 360 finances that have just been listed in the US. The Internet finance of 360 is now a certain order of magnitude. However, in the case that the state has stricter control over Internet finance, it is hard to say how it should go.
The biggest problem with the security pain of the mobile Internet is that the mobile device tools are becoming more and more marginalized and will probably fall into the bottleneck.360 used to apply security guards, browsers, etc. on the PC side. But on the mobile side, tool-like applications are highly marginalized. Apple's mobile phone accounts for about 20% of mobile phone users in China, accounting for 40% of the market in China's mobile game industry. But it doesn't need to install any tools. The Apple phone is a closed system, it is impossible to get a virus, and it can't be phishing. This part of the demand for high-end Android is not particularly strong, especially many mobile phones will be pre-installed with internal security applications, so it is not easy to do tool-to-C applications.
Similar cheetah mobile has been doing this for a long time, both domestic and foreign tools, and finally rely on the United States to do live applications and news applications, to be able to make money by advertising, the application of the tool application itself can not always get up . 360 Next, if you want to make money in a secure application, it is a B-side business. The concept of doing B-side applications is called B-side Internet. For example, Ali is also engaged in cloud and security, and the benchmark for B-side business is probably A-share.Venus StarWait.
Eight, 2019, the film industry industry content supervision scale will not relax
We have a conservative attitude towards the film and television industry for 19 years, because the first 19 years are the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China, so it will not be too loose on the scale of reviewing some content.In terms of the scale of film supervision, some of the more controversial subjects have some difficulty in reviewing the subject.On the other hand, at the end of 2018, the country launched the policy of online drama and network major, and the national regulatory authorities issued an announcement that the short video content should be reviewed first. Even the content of the barrage and the barrage of station b must be reviewed first. Although some of them do not specifically agree with this practice, the state has already stipulated this, and it is certain that this year's content supervision system will be stricter.
There is also a particularly strange phenomenon in the film industry. The Central Propaganda Film Bureau launched the "80,000 screen plan" at the end of last year. If it is really necessary to build 80,000 screens, the compound growth rate of the film industry's screen will be double-digit in the next two or three years, and the single-screen output of the film may fall. But in the end, how to achieve double-digit screen growth, because now the film industry's box office growth rate is a low double-digit situation, theater companies will bear greater pressure. Of course, I don’t know if the content of the movie will be beneficial.
The only thing that can be seen in the film industry in 2019 is that Hollywood imports may be a rising cycle.Because 19 years, there are indeed a large number of imported films. Not only the legendary "Avatar 2", but also more superhero movies. There are variables in the Internet video platform in the series, because You Wei, the president of Youku, was investigated by the police after being reported by Ali at the end of last year because of alleged corruption. Now everyone is staring at Youku's 19-year strategy will not change, if there is a clear turn, for example, some people say Youku wants to sell to today's headlines, then Youku returned two words to say nonsense.
But even if it is not sold to today's headlines, what should it do in the future? Because Youku's user volume and revenue really differ from iQiyi and Tencent video. If Youku closes, iQiyi and Tencent are happy, the two between them do not want to fight the price war, do not want to spend too much money on the content side, the industry giants can enjoy peace.
But if Youku wants to continue playing, Ali can definitely support it for another two or three years. Iqiyi has just made a round of financing, and then support the next year, the problem should not be too big, Tencent will not withdraw. Therefore, under the current situation, if Youku really wants to quit or has a significant transformation, it may be unfavorable to the content side, but it is beneficial to iQiyi, Mango tv, etc. However, we believe that Youku will not withdraw from the market and will continue to play. Therefore, 19 years is a good thing for content companies, because the competition of the three platforms is better than the two platforms, but it is not necessarily a good thing for the platform itself.
Above areGuojin SecuritiesPei Pei, chief analyst of Internet Media, recorded the roadshow of Caijing.