Quick news

1. The Sino-US high-level economic and trade consultation will be held in Beijing on February 14-15. The US team will arrive in Beijing on February 11th. The Politburo member of the CPC Central Committee, the vice premier of the State Council, and the Chinese leader of the China-US Comprehensive Economic Dialogue Liu He will be in Beijing from February 14th to 15th, and will hold a new round of high-level Sino-US economic and trade consultations with US Trade Representative Wright Heze and Finance Minister Mnuchin.

2. The Ministry of Finance has clarified that the old-age care institutions are exempt from VAT and other policies. The Ministry of Finance clarifies that the old-age care institutions are exempt from VAT and other policies. From February 1, 2019 to December 31, 2020, funds between units within the enterprise group. Free lending, exempt from VAT.

3. The two high judicial interpretations clarify the illegal foreign exchange recognition standards. The Supreme People's Court and the Supreme People's Procuratorate jointly issued the "Interpretation on Several Issues Concerning the Application of Laws in Handling Illegal Funds Payment and Settlement Business, Illegal Trading of Foreign Exchange Criminal Cases", stipulating the implementation of reverse buying and selling of foreign exchange or In disguised form of buying and selling foreign exchange and other illegal trading of foreign exchange, disrupting the financial market order, if the circumstances are serious, the crime of illegal business shall be convicted and punished. (Xinhua News Agency)

4, red, yellow and blue announced the name changed to "GEH Education" through the acquisition of the transition education platform February 9th, Red, Yellow and Blue Education announced that it announced the acquisition of nearly 70% of Singapore's private children's education group for $125 million, red, yellow and blue Founder Shi Yanlai said in the announcement that after the acquisition, Singapore and Beijing will cooperate more in international bilingual courses and education management. (interface news)

5. Ministry of Culture and Tourism: Tourism revenue in the Spring Festival in 2019 was 513.9 billion yuan, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year.

In June, the property market was in a downturn, and the sales of leading real estate enterprises were in 2019. The first-month transcripts of real estate enterprises were announced one after another, but the market theme was still “downturn”. The sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises continued the downward trend since the third quarter of last year, and the market performance continued to decline. According to the data of Cree, in the past month, the sales amount of the equity of over 300% of the housing companies fell year-on-year. Among them, the sales amount of the equity of 13 real estate enterprises fell by more than 30%, and the decline of 22 real estate enterprises was less than 30%. Although the number of home sales projects is currently significantly higher than last year, the overall sales performance is not satisfactory. (First Finance)

Macroeconomics

1. The Spring Festival returns to the hometown boom, and the third and fourth-tier cities are becoming more rational. Experts say that the returning homes boom shows that the third- and fourth-tier citiesreal estateThe market has smoothly eliminated the bubble and gradually became more rational. It is also a concrete manifestation of the implementation of the “control policy based on city policy and classification guidance”. The stable housing prices in the third- and fourth-tier cities are also conducive to the establishment of a long-term regulation mechanism, thereby weakening the investment property of the real estate industry and realizing the positioning of “the house is used for living, not for speculation”. (Xinhua News Agency)

Comments: The monetization of the sheds in the previous two years has helped the third- and fourth-tier cities to vigorously go to a real estate inventory. Now the sheds have gradually withdrawn from the monetization, and the housing prices have increased substantially, even doubled.Common peopleThere is not much cash in the hands of the down payment, and the heat of home ownership is naturally reduced.

2, Ganzhou responded to "the housing business can not fight the price war": will not intervene in the market behavior recently, a "Civilian Real Estate Chamber of Commerce in Jiangsu Province issued a "Notice about the recent sales chaos in the real estate market in Zhangzhou"" spread in the network. On February 8th, the person in charge of the relevant department of Chenzhou City replied to the reporter, "The above notification is true, but we are investigating the legality of the chamber of commerce and the real estate chaos proposed in the above notification. The housing price in Zhangzhou is Real estate business associations are not allowed to drop, can not fall? Real estate is also a commodity, price reduction is also a market behavior, as long as it is not malicious price reduction, we will not intervene, but will curb the excessive rise in housing prices according to the spirit of superiors." Newspaper)

Comments: Under the real estate control policy, some real estate developers have been a bit uncomfortable in order to withdraw funds. However, the decline in house prices is not conducive to the government selling land, so ah, individual places are holding hard.

3. China's elderly population may increase in 2025 According to a report issued by Peking Union Medical College and China Association of Geriatric Care (CAWA), the number of people aged 80 or above in China may increase rapidly from 2025 to 2050. By 2026, China will become an “ageing society”, with the proportion of people aged 65 and over accounting for more than 14% of the total population. (Xinhua News Agency)

Comments: Our actions in releasing family planning have been too slow, and the rapidly growing aging population will pose challenges to China's economic development. However, the industry related to pensions will flourish. Nowadays, the advertisements for all kinds of old shoes on TV are the entrepreneurial ideas formed according to the demographic changes.

4,Guotai JunanHuachun Changchun: It is expected that the central bank will cut the benchmark lending rate 1-2 times in 2019.Guotai JunanChangchun, the chief economist of the world, believes that the downward pressure on the Chinese economy in the second and third quarters is relatively large, and it is hard to say the bottom of the economy in 2019. It is imperative to lower the benchmark lending rate. It is expected that the central bank will cut the benchmark lending rate by 1-2 times in 2019, down 250 basis points. Under the guidance of the policy, it is very likely that the fourth quarter of 2019 will stabilize. The asset allocation order for the first quarter of 2019 is gold, yen > credit bonds > interest rate bonds > stocks. “The stock still maintains a cautious judgment and needs to wait for opportunities, such as reforms in place, to restore market confidence.” (澎湃)

Comments: The RRR cut makes the market's currency more affluent. In the relevant market, the number of voices has increased recently. Haitong Jiangchao believes that although the economy is not good now, the valuation of A shares is low enough, and the cheap is the last word. The assets such as bonds are at a high level, and the price/performance ratio is not as good as the stock market. According to Zhang Jun of Da Mo Hua Xin Securities, from the perspective of global asset allocation, global assets are in a pattern of outflow from the United States in 2019. In the process of global capital seeking certainty, the Chinese market has no stall risk and exchange rate. Stable, attractive valuation, so the certainty is very strong.

5. Fed Kaplan: It is estimated that the US economic growth rate in 219 is close to 2%. The Federal Reserve's Kaplan said that the US economy performed well in 2018, with a growth rate of 3%. The fiscal stimulus made the economic growth rate peak in 2018, and the impact of fiscal stimulus is expected. Resolved in 2019, the US economic growth rate is expected to be close to 2% in 2019.

Comments: Trump's tax cuts, the strong heart of the US economy, are about to expire. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen told the media on February 6 that the Fed must rely on the mostNew economyThe data to determine whether its next policy is to raise interest rates or cut interest rates. If global economic growth really weakens and spills into the United States, then the next step is to cut interest rates.

6. The Baltic Dry Index fell by more than 40% in half a month. From January 18 to February 5, the Baltic Dry Index fell for 13 days, with a drop of nearly 42%. Compared with the four-year high of 1747, which was set in July last year, the cumulative decline was nearly 60%, hitting a two-year low. (一财)

Comments: The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is an economic indicator of the shipping industry. It includes a shift in the dry bulk trading volume of the shipping industry. Now that the global economy is down, the shipping industry is bound to be affected.

Observing observation

1. The first week of the first year of the opening of the year, the ban on the ban, the 11-year ban on the market value of over 3 billion pigs in the first week, the A-share market will be lifted. According to statistics, the number of shares banned in the first week after the Spring Festival totaled 57, and the total number of banned shares reached 10.99 billion shares. The latest closing price was calculated, and the total market value of the ban was 102.8 billion yuan. Putting it all year round, in 2019, the market value of the ban was over 100 billion yuan in 9 weeks. Since the first week of the pig year, the next week of lifting the ban on the market value of 100 billion yuan is the third week of April. (Securities Times)

Comments: The market has withstood the thunderstorm before the festival. From the historical point of view, the impact of lifting the ban on the market is general.

2. In the first week after the holiday, the trillion yuan will expire in the first week after the Spring Festival holiday, the capital market will have 680 billion yuan reverse repurchase expires, February 13th 393 billion yuan MLF expires, returning 9.5 billion yuan to replace the MLF, Therefore, a total of 106.3 billion yuan of funds has expired. In the last week before the holiday, the market has no reversal repurchase due, and the accumulated net investment of the week is 180 billion yuan. (First Finance)

Comments: During the economic downturn, the currency will not tighten. In addition, some institutions expect that the money market is expected to usher in a "good time" after the Spring Festival. In the future, we need to pay attention to the credit situation and the issuance of government bonds. These two aspects may have a certain impact on the liquidity of the money market.

3. The local debt boom prompted the issue rate to be lowered two weeks before the Spring Festival, and the 417.966 billion local bonds were intensively issued in advance. On January 29th, it was reported that the lower limit of the local debt bidding interval will be adjusted to 25-40BP, that is, the minimum can be 25 BP on the basis of the benchmark. After that, the local bond interest rates issued by Shenzhen, Jiangsu, Hainan, Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Beijing, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other places have been executed in accordance with the “New Deal”, which has declined compared with the previous ones. For example, the 5-year interest rate fell to 3.39% from around 3.33%, and the 10-year interest rate fell from 3.5% to 3.38%. (澎湃News)

Comments: Under the background of economic downturn, monetary easing, and risk-free interest rate rapid decline, the asset shortage has become increasingly fierce, and local debt with high cost performance has become a must for banks and other institutions.

4. The non-performing rate of Jianhu Rural Commercial Bank is 25.10%, and the provision coverage ratio is not up to standard. Jiangsu Province, the economically developed region, also experienced the deterioration of the asset quality of the rural commercial bank for the first time. The 2019 annual deposit certificate issuance plan announced by Jianhu Rural Commercial Bank. It shows that as of the end of November 2018, the non-performing rate of the bank rose to 4.81% from 1.96% at the end of 2017, and the provision coverage ratio fell from 154.15% to 83.99%. The bank explained that the first is due to the impact of the county economy downturn; the second is affected by the borrower's own; the third is affected by the guarantee circle and the guarantee chain. In September 2018, China Chengxin International rated the bank as A, and in 2016, Oriental Jincheng rated the bank as AA-.

Comments: The bank's interpretation of the county economy downturn, the borrower's own influence, the guarantee circle guarantee chain impact is actually one thing, that is, the economy is not good, business is not good.

Observing observation

1. The total box office of the Spring Festival has exceeded 5 billion yuan. As of 22 o'clock on February 9th, Beijing time, the total box office of the Spring Festival in 2019 exceeded 5 billion yuan. "Wandering Earth" ranked first with 1.58 billion yuan, "Crazy Alien" ranked second with 1.29 billion yuan, and "Flying Life" was ranked third.

Comments: The participation of A-share listed companies in the Spring Festival this year has increased significantly. In simple terms, "Wandering Earth" correspondsChinese filmwithBeijing culture, "Crazy Alien" correspondsLight media, "Flying Life" correspondsWanda MoviewithLight media.Beijing cultureThis time, the bet was successful again, but in history, the market is pulsating.

2. The State Food and Drug Administration announced the preliminary investigation of Shanghai's emerging related products. The State Food and Drug Administration announced preliminary investigations: Shanghai's three kinds of viral nucleic acid tests for HIV, hepatitis B and hepatitis C in the batches of human immunoglobulins. All were negative; Jiang West faced the patient's HIV nucleic acid test and the result was negative. Relevant work such as on-site verification of enterprises is being further carried out.

Comments: The virus nucleic acid is negative, which proves that there is no HIV in this batch of blood products, and only the antibodies of AIDS patients, the users of the products should not be affected. However, once it is found that production negligence has led to the incorporation of AIDS patients, the company must be severely punished!

3, iPhone replacement cycle extended to 4 years, this year only 16% will be replaced by new iPhone Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi said that people's update cycle of the iPhone extended, which may cause trouble for Apple. He said that the fiscal year 2018 is about every three years, and the upgrade period for the iPhone in the 2019 fiscal year is about every four years. Sacconaghi expects 16% of the 900 million iPhone users to purchase a new iPhone in FY 2019. (TechWeb)

Comments: Although Apple's mobile phone is easy to use, it has already faced innovation bottlenecks. The extension of the replacement cycle may have an impact on the growth of the Apple industry chain.

4. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Launching for 2035new energyAutomobile planning is to promote the high-quality development of the new energy automobile industry. Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized the "New Energy Automobile Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" (referred to as "Planning") preparation work kick-off meeting for the next stage.Guoxin EnergyCar development is top-level design. Miao Wei, Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology pointed out that in the planning and preparation work, it is necessary to take the high-quality development of new energy vehicles as the main line and explore new modes of deep integration and development of new energy vehicles with energy, transportation and information communication. (Car home)

Comments: It is relatively certain that the new energy vehicle subsidy policy has been set. Miao Wei pointed out that the relevant departments are working hard to study and formulate the subsidy policy for 2019. The general principle is that after ensuring that all subsidies are withdrawn in 2021, the industry will not experience major fluctuations, and the pressure from the phased release will be reversed. In addition, plug-in hybrid vehicles and fuel cell vehicles deserve special attention and joint research.

5, the Spring Festival bank management is difficult to "hook", gold investment is still favored This year's Spring Festival bank wealth management market performance is flat, lack of attractiveness, the "warm" phenomenon in previous years is difficult to see. However, contrary to the performance of the bank's wealth management market, the purchase of gold products has not been reduced this year, and the market performance is stable. A number of brokers and analysts also have confidence in the gold trend in 2019. They believe that the hedging effect of gold will be further highlighted by factors such as the fall in the dollar and the weakening of the global economy, which will support the rise in gold prices. (Xinhua News Agency)

Comments: In addition toCommon peopleWhen buying gold, central banks are also buying. According to the "Gold Demand Trend" report released by the World Gold Council, the official gold reserve of the global central bank increased by 651.5 tons in 18 years, an increase of 74%.

6. Domestic steel enterprises speed up restructuring and adjustment. Many steel companies in China are planning cross-regional, inter-provincial and cross-ownership mergers and acquisitions to seek a larger, more stable and farther development space. According to reports, the current merger and reorganization of steel enterprises is in-depth development, and a large number of enterprises are brewing negotiations and restructuring. Achieving the goal of achieving a 60% concentration in the steel industry in 2025 will result in a larger restructuring. (Xinhua News Agency)

Comments: Capacity will not increase, concentration will increase, and the high-profit era of steel companies will remain for some time.

Company news

1. Softbank Sun Justice: Not selling Ali stocks, optimistic about its growth potential Softbank Sun Zheng said that it did not sell Alibaba stock because he believes the company still has great growth potential. Previously, Softbank's Vision Fund sold all Nvidia shares worth 398 billion yen. Softbank sold shares of Flipkart to Wal-Mart last year. Flipkart's total internal rate of return is 58%. Softbank Group received revenue of 220 billion yen through the sale of shares in Flipkart and Nvidia.

Comments: For those great companies, all you need is patience.

2,Wanda Movie: Adjusting the restructuring plan, will acquire 95.77% stake in Wanda FilmsWanda MovieAnnouncement, due to the failure of Qingdao West Coast Cultural Industry Investment Co., Ltd. to obtain the approval of its state-owned assets supervision and administration department to participate in this transaction, the company intends to adjust the transaction plan, Qingdao West Coast Culture and its holding Wanda Films 1.0579 The % equity is no longer included in the scope of the counterparty and the underlying assets. The company will issue shares to purchase a total of 95.7683% of the shares of Wanda Films.

Comments: The acquisition of Wanda Film and Television amounted to 10.523 billion yuan. Wanda Films promised 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 annual net profit of not less than 763 million yuan, 888 million yuan, 1.069 billion yuan, 1.274 billion yuan. Based on 18 years of net profit, the acquisition of PE is less than 15 times, which is not expensive. However, it is still necessary to observe whether the compound growth rate of nearly 20% can be maintained.

3,Shanghai movie: The comprehensive income from "Wandering Earth" is temporarily -2.8 million yuan to -2.3 million yuanShanghai movieAnnouncement, as of February 7, 2019, the company's comprehensive income from the film temporarily was -2.8 million yuan to -2.3 million yuan (the final data is subject to actual settlement). As the film is still in the release, the relevant income will increase with the increase of the box office, the company will release the progress announcement in due course according to the income situation.

Comments: This means that after 8 days, the company's comprehensive income is basically positive, and the current market estimates that the total investment of the Wandering Planet is 350 million.Shanghai movieThe investment amount is about 20 million.

4,HaleyShareholder Zhang Jianping and his concerted action were issued a warning letter on the afternoon of February 10,HaleyAnnouncement, the company's shareholders received the China Securities Regulatory Commission Shanghai Regulatory Authority administrative supervision measures decision "about the decision on Zhang Jianping, Fang Wenyan, Fang Deji issued a warning letter."

Comments: I have never understood why Zhang Jianping bought this company. Previous media research found that this company has great problems.

5,Chinese medicine: Shanghai's emerging business scale and profits account for a small proportion of the company.Chinese medicineAnnounced on the evening of February 10, recently, the General Administration of Health and Health of the People's Republic of China issued the "Notice on Suspension of the Relevant Batches of Shanghai Xinxing Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.". At present, the company holds a 51% stake in Shanghai Xinxing and was included in the consolidated statement of listed companies in June 2018. The company has no guarantee for Shanghai Xinxing. Shanghai's emerging business scale and profits account for a small proportion of the company and have less impact on the company. At the first time, the company asked Shanghai Xinxing to inform relevant units to stop selling, using, sealing and recalling the problem batch products in full, and Shanghai Xinxing was completely shut down.

Comments: There is currently no detectable product with HIV. But what is certain is that there is a link that makes AIDS patients participate in blood supply.Chinese medicine17 years of net profit of 1.298 billion, Shanghai emerging 18 years of semi-annual report net profit of 49.07 million, has little impact on the company's performance, but the social impact is very bad. It is estimated that a down limit may still occur.

6,Han nationality laser: Has spent 490 million yuan to repurchase 1.44% sharesHan nationality laserOn the evening of February 10, the repurchase progress was disclosed. As of January 31, 2019, the number of shares repurchased was 15.33 million shares, accounting for 1.44% of the company's total share capital. The highest price was 35.50 yuan/share, and the lowest price was 29.49 yuan/ Shares, the total amount paid is 490 million yuan.

Comments: On February 10, the company's dynamic PE was only 16 times, and the stock price fell back to the 17-year starting point. Guangzheng Hang Seng statistics found that the company's gross profit margin (41%), per capita income (9.6 million yuan), per capita profitability (140,000) Yuan) is much higher than its peers. It is expected that with the increase in the proportion of self-produced lasers and the significant price cuts of the company's major supplier IPG, profitability and scale will be further reflected. From the perspective of incremental space, the company's growth is still there.

7,ST Conde New: "17 Kangde New MTN001", "17 Kangde New MTN002" and interest will be paid on scheduleST Conde NewOn the evening of February 10, the meeting of the bondholders’ meeting stated that the company will pay “17 Kangde New MTN001” and “17 Kangde New MTN002” and interest according to the time specified in the prospectus. The company is actively raising funds to resolve the current flow. Sexual risk, and agreed to provide credit enhancement measures for “17 Conde New MTN001” and “17 Conde New MTN002” bonds at the appropriate time. The company strives to pay the principal and interest of “18 Kangde New SCP001” and “18 Kangde New SCP002” before March 31, and additionally provides the company’s actual controller Zhong Yu irrevocable joint liability guarantee.

Comments: The aggressive investment of the major shareholder, the listed company lying gun, is the most white horse in history.

8,Tong Ding Internet: It plans to spend US$49.22 million to acquire Nasdaq-listed company's wholly-owned overseas subsidiary, Caymantong, to invest US$49.22 million to acquire 9.2 million shares of NASDAQ-listed UTStarcom Holdings. After the completion of the acquisition, the company will control its 35.96. % shares, the largest shareholder.

Comments: This acquisition is more suitable. UTS is a global telecommunications infrastructure provider, and continues to research and develop in the 5G transmission field. It plans to launch a sliced ​​packet network product.

9. The relationship between the proposed takeover and Lantian shares is a mystery.Oriental Golden DragonflyThe Shanghai Stock Exchange holiday has not yet ended.Oriental Golden DragonflyThat is, we received a letter from the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The reporter noted that the inquiry letter was directed at the identity of the listed company's proposed takeover, China Lantian Corporation, including its relationship with the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and Lantian. (Daily Economic News)

Comments: Lantian shares have been delisted due to financial fraud and continuous losses. China Lantian was the major shareholder of Lantian. In addition, the chairman of Lantian Co., Ltd., Zhao Zhaoyu, is also the legal representative of China Lantian. Let such a person with a "former" settle inOriental Golden DragonflyThe impact is really bad.

The content and opinions in this report are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice for anyone.

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