Recently, a news video about the loan structure data of the four major banks of workers and peasants in 2008-2017 caused concern in the industry.

Among them, the most interesting data is: In the past ten years, the four major banks have accumulatively issued loans of 68.84 trillion yuan to individual home purchase loans, far exceeding the total loans obtained by the manufacturing industry (49.34 trillion yuan). This has a long history.

The data of the four major banks is only the tip of the iceberg. In the past decade, the impact of the bubble development of the property market on the real economy, residents' debt and consumption has been an answer to this article.


Mortgage, the first investment of the four major banks


First of all, look at the key information presented in the above video. Based on the data of the four major annual reports of workers and peasants, the total loan scale of the four major banks in the decade of 2008-2017 was 252.76 trillion yuan, of which the personal housing loan scale was 688,400. 100 million yuan, accounting for 27%, manufacturing loans 49.34 trillion yuan, accounting for 19%. Plusreal estateCorporate loans, the total amount of loans from the four major banks to the real estate industry in the decade reached 87.96 trillion yuan, accounting for 34.8% (see the chart below).


Looking at the trend of change, in 2012, personal housing loans historically replaced manufacturing loans, becoming the first direction for the four major banks to add new loans. Since then, the Chinese real estate market has entered a period of bubble rising.


The growth rate of the property market loan is higher than the overall growth rate of bank loans


The preference for the real estate market is not just the four major banks, but the entire financial institution. In the decade from 2009 to 2018, the balance of China's financial institutions' loans increased from 34.95 trillion yuan to 136.3 trillion yuan, while the balance of real estate industry loans (real estate development loans + personal home loans) expanded from 5.67 trillion yuan to 38.7 trillion yuan. yuan. During this period, the proportion of loans in the real estate industry also climbed from 16.3% to 28.4%.

Reflected in the growth rate, an obvious fact is:In most years, the loan growth rate of the property market from banks was significantly higher than the overall growth rate of bank loans.Especially in the six years since 2013, this phenomenon is quite prominent (see the figure below).


Next, we will further analyze the scale and growth rate of the two major components of the real estate industry loans, “real estate development loans” and “personal mortgage loans”. Among them, real estate development loans include real estate development loans, affordable housing development loans and real estate development loans (land mortgage loans). As of the end of June 2018, the balances of these three major types of loans were 8.18 trillion yuan, 4.08 trillion yuan and 1.46 trillion yuan respectively. It is worth noting that as the nationwide shed improvement process accelerates, the growth rate of affordable housing development loans is much higher than that of commercial real estate development loans.


Personal mortgage loans account for the largest share and fastest growth rate


Of course, in the real estate industry, the largest loan and the fastest growth rate is still the personal mortgage loan. At the end of 2018, the balance of personal home purchase loans reached 25.75 trillion yuan, accounting for about 2/3 of the total real estate industry loans, while new mortgage loans accounted for about 3/4 of the total new loans in the real estate industry (see below). Figure).

Personal mortgage loan growth severely squeezes consumption


The rapid growth of personal mortgage loans not only has a significant crowding out effect on the financing of the real economy such as manufacturing, but also led to a record high in the leverage ratio of residents, which in turn caused a large drag on household consumption.

Specifically, at the end of 2018, the balance of household sector loans soared to a high of 47.9 trillion yuan, and the leverage level (% of GDP) also broke through 50% historically. Among them, the proportion of personal mortgage loans rose from 49.2% to 57.4%, which did not include the rapid growth of provident fund loans - the balance of national provident fund loans in 2017 was 4.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 37%.

At present, China's mortgage income ratio has exceeded the peak of the US and Japan real estate bubble, and the heavy mortgage burden has seriously weakened the consumption prospects of durable consumer goods such as automobiles and other fields.

In fact, the excessive leverage of residents in the past two years has caused the effect of rising house prices on household consumption to be significantly greater than the early wealth effect.

The wealth effect here means:The wealth of real estate owners will increase with the increase in housing prices, and residents can also obtain positive returns through real estate investment. At this time, the leverage ratio of the residential sector is not high, and the income of residents is increasing faster than the increase in housing prices. In this context, rising house prices will increase residents' marginal propensity to consume and promote consumption growth. This is the wealth effect of rising house prices on stimulating consumption.

The extrusion effect refers to:With the housing price increase too fast, the income growth rate of residents cannot keep up with the increase in housing prices, and the residents' departments have to be highly indebted and add leverage to buy houses. After the “new boarder” deducts the mortgage expenditure, the decline in marginal consumption propensity is an inevitable trend. At this time, the crowding-out effect of housing price increase on household consumption will be far greater than the wealth effect.

Judging from the trend of the two, before 2015, the wealth effect of housing price increase on household consumption is very obvious. The national housing price increase is highly correlated with household consumption expenditure. Among them, the price increase in 2006-2008 and 2012-2013 led the residents. Consumer spending is about two quarters, and the leading consumer spending in the 2009-2010 housing price rise cycle is about three quarters. However, after the property market destocking stage after 2015, house prices have soared, but consumer spending has continued to decline, and the trend of differentiation between the two is very obvious (see the following figure). This differentiation is the effect of high housing prices and high leverage on consumption. The inevitable result.


On the whole, the bubble development of the real estate market since 2008 has not only produced a siphon effect on the financing of the real economy such as manufacturing, but also a major drag on the continued sluggish consumption of residents in recent years.

Under the background of the central government's “household and non-speculation” spirit of regulation and the heavy debt burden of residents, the regulatory authorities have actively guided bank funds into private enterprises, small and micro enterprises and infrastructure investment.In the short term, the proportion of personal mortgage loans will likely fall to the top, and the squeeze of the real estate market on manufacturing financing will gradually ease.

(Source: Suning wealth of information: Director of the Center for Macroeconomic Research Institute of Finance, Su Ning Huang Zhilong)