The overall box office of the Spring Festival this year was flat. In the context of high fares, the number of people watching and attendance was less than expected.


The viewers of the 3, 4 and 5 line cities are more sensitive to price, and the attendance rate has dropped significantly.


As the total amount of ticket replenishment decreased and the delivery mode changed, the superimposed cinema and some theaters actively or passively adjusted the business strategy, the ticket price of the Spring Festival was significantly improved (the average box office could not fully reflect the price increase).

1. Researchers' previous pessimistic/neutral/optimistic expectations for the Spring Festival box office were 59/65/72 billion, corresponding to a year-on-year growth rate of 2%/13%/24%, which is expected to account for the total box office ratio for the year. 9-10%;

2. The first box office was 1.433 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.13%.Chinese filmThe market single-day box office record, media analysts cheered, the opening of the door indicates that the market growth is expected throughout the year;

3, most people deliberately dilute the background of the new box office in the background, the fact that the number of people watching the market fell back against the market, this data fell 3% on the first day, 15% in the second day, 12% in the third day, the whole day in the next few days The fall rate is also around 10%;

4. The decline of the number of people watching the film, resulting in all the days except the first day, the box office has seen a significant year-on-year negative growth. Fortunately, the fare as a whole has a rise of about 12%, partially offset the decline of the number of people;

5. As of 24 February on February 10, the total box office of the Spring Festival in 2019 exceeded 5.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, almost negatively. The data of the sixth day was 100 million less than the seller's general pessimistic expectations. The noteworthy details are: If there is no "Wandering Earth" word of mouth bursting to give birth to two brush / three brush demand, the data will be more ugly;

6. A part of the seller has completely relaxed his mindset and recounted the box office forecast of the Cat Eye Professional Edition. He shouted that the expected box office of "Wandering Earth" was about 5 billion yuan. I have known that the cat's eye is based on the historical performance of the flat push, basically without the holiday factor adjustment;

7. Researchers who tracked the box office data on a daily basis, basically responded after the third grade data came out, suspended the tracking, and began to re-emphasize the neutral judgment of the box office throughout the year;

8. Why is this data so much concern, partly because of the Spring Festival topic effect, and one reason is that if the growth rate of this segment is only single-digit growth, then the overall industry valuation should theoretically kill 10- 15 times interval;

9. It is worth noting that the word-of-mouth of "The King of New Comedy" and "Detective Pu Songling" is unusually obvious. The box office of 530 million and 130 million is obviously lower than everyone expected. "Pigpe" is even directed by the director. After the death, the violent death was realized. The box office of 110 million yuan has basically entered the shameful interval compared with the 470 million yuan of the competing product "Bears".

10. The problem is that before the three ministries, the public has obvious expectations: "The King of New Comedy" has Zhou Xingchi's blessing, "Pu Songling" has Jackie Chan + comedy film blessing, "Little Pig Page" has a trailer for viral spread blessing ;

11, here is actually very embarrassing, writing public relations from the media has been the industry's unspoken rules, most of the 10W+ blowing articles you see about the film are public relations. - In a sense, the people are the meat on the cutting board of others, but they are cut by Mi Meng, or are public relations and other media-cutting, giving up the struggle;

12. A young team of sellers discovered this fact and wrote an article, "Your time is so precious, why do you still want to read the public relations soft paper? ", although the reading volume is only 1000, I would like to pay full respect to this;

13, for the entire film and television industry, this is actually caught in a new logical dilemma: big card (Zhou Xingchi) can not guarantee the box office, viral marketing (small pigs) can not guarantee the box office, only word of mouth, quality and based on both The basic marketing can guarantee the box office – this symbolizes that our film industry has officially entered the process of industrialization, and all must be based on film quality and word of mouth, not others;

14. What's interesting is that almost everyone did not expect it. The acceleration of this change is the rise in fares (and the retreat of the ticket). Because the ticket is expensive, people will cherish every opportunity to watch the movie, and the box office will gather more in the high-quality movie;

15. This is almost another model for supply-side reform. The price increase can promote industry capacity improvement and capacity integration.the Internet+, the idea of ​​subsidies prevailing almost contradicts.