02.11 Loyalty commentary:gemLeading the way to open the door, Chunsheng market opened the battle
On the first day after the Spring Festival holiday, the A-shares continued their practice of opening the door after the previous year's holiday and opened the door as scheduled. The Shanghai Composite Index opened 5 points lower at 2613 points.SSE 50withShanghai and Shenzhen 300It is also a green plate, but, the GEM,Small and medium boardDeep fingering,CSI 500But go high and go high. In particular, the GEM's strong impact on the success of the 1300-point integer has stimulated popularity and drove the entire market to full-fledged.
Before noon, the SSE 50,Shanghai and Shenzhen 300,CSI 500The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index, SME Board and ChiNext increased by 0.64%, 1.25%, 1.68%, 0.83%, 2.28%, 2.32% and 2.95% respectively. Individual stocks rose and fell ratio: 1341:86, 2026: 80.42 stocks daily limit, 2 stocks limit. The turnover was 182.9 billion, which was about 20% larger than last week.
The bright performance of today's A-shares is mainly due to:
First of all, the market bottom and valuation of A-shares have been recognized by most domestic and foreign institutions. In January, the two bottoms were further confirmed and confirmed. As of February 1st at 2618, the average P/E ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index was 13.16 times, the average P/E ratio of the Shenzhen Composite Index was 14.95 times, the small and medium board was 23.52 times, and the GEM was 32.35 times. In the US market, as of February 8, the average price-to-earnings ratio of the US S&P 500 index was 20.76 times, Dow JonesIndustrial indexThe average price-to-earnings ratio of stocks was 28.7 times, and the average price-to-earnings ratio of Nasdaq 100 stocks was 33.2 times. In contrast, A shares have already had a strong appeal.
Second, before the Spring Festival, the A-share market gained a series of policy packages. The CSRC completed the coaching change. The new chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Yi Huiman, has not made public voices yet, but a series of policy measures have already met with the market:
A series of supporting documents of the Science and Technology Board will be released, and public comments will be completed by the end of February. The science and technology board must be launched, the stock market must be revitalized, and there must be appropriate policies and an active market atmosphere. As a result, a series of favorable policy signals for the A-share market were released: the two systems of QFII and RQFII were fitted to one, and the scope of investment was expanded; it was proposed to cancel the 130% limit of the two-finance line;securities companyThe proportion of venture capital preparations for equity securities such as investment constituents and ETFs is reduced to reduce capital occupation. As one of the most important strategic funds in the A-share market, insurance funds have also received strong support from the policy. On January 28th, Xiaoyuan, a spokesperson of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said that the China Insurance Regulatory Commission encouraged insurance companies to use long-term account funds to increase the stocks and bonds of high-quality listed companies. For insurance funds, general stocks and major stock investments, etc. Accelerate the relevant filing and approval work; speed up the process of special product landing, and attract more insurance funds to participate in capital market investment in various ways.
Therefore, the current A shares have shown a strong overall. But it also has structural features.
The GEM, which has fallen for three consecutive years, has the strongest rebound, with an increase of nearly 3% and a 1300-point mark. 5G, domestic software and other concepts are among the top gainers. This is also related to the cancellation of the profit standard for the new shares of the science and technology board to be opened. The course will have a higher valuation, which will cause other boards to fade the price-earnings ratio standard, which is conducive to high-tech speculation, and enhance the theme stocks and growth stocks. , valuation of the transformation of stocks.
The oversold low-priced stocks are the vanguard of the rise. Most of the two cities were in the top of the list, and most of them were low-priced stocks.
Before the holiday, the 2018 performance loss forecast stocks appeared in the thunder. Due to a quarterly report, there was a continuous daily limit. Such asFirst spirit informationThe annual report was expected to lose 300 million yuan, while the first quarter report was expected to increase by 720--750%.
The ST report, which has turned its losses into profit in the annual report, is expected to pick up the hat and pick up the stars, and restructure the assets, has a continuous daily limit.
Banks, insurance, white horses and high-priced stocks were weaker. Since the second half of 2018, especially in the fourth quarter, it has just experienced a fierce slump. QFII, RQFII, MSCI, and North Bank have lost more than 300 billion yuan, and public funds have suffered losses of around 20%. Another data: At present, the total number of A-share accounts is 146 million, but the number of investors with an account amount of more than 500,000 yuan is only 5.57 million, accounting for only 3.8% of all B&Bs. Before the new capital is put into the market, it is difficult to become the driving force for the science and technology board and the entire A-share market by relying solely on the institutional stock funds. No one is willing to act as a "liberation army" to raise large-cap stocks and buy stocks. This has created a situation in which large-cap stocks are mutually restrained and stalemate. This is exactly the "set up" for the spring market.
Under the favorable effect, the "Spring Life" market in 2019 is ahead of previous years. Before the Spring Festival, it was just a rehearsal. After the Spring Festival, it opened up. With the warming of policies and liquidity, the market rebound in February is expected to continue, becoming an excellent window for the year. As for whether there is a real spring, it is necessary to see whether there is a large-scale new capital entering the market, whether it can correct the guiding ideology of expansion, and whether it can reform the monopoly and the non-reduction system of the new share structure. Otherwise, you can only use the annual "Spring Health" band market, or "grab rebound" market.
At present, the market stands above the five-week moving average (currently at 2601) for three consecutive weeks, standing at 60 antennas (now at 2583) for eight consecutive days. This morning, for the first time, it stood above 120 antennas at 2,634 points. Two points of concern in the market: Can you consolidate 2630 points and 2600 points? This is the key to advancing the spring market.