In the A-share market above 3000 points, the stock market volatility increased significantly, and the market's single-day decline also increased significantly. After the Shanghai index fell 4.40% in the previous week, March 13gemMeansThe number of single-day declines exceeded 4%, while the other major indices in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fell more than 1%.
3000 points, as the core value of the A-share market in the past ten years, in the vicinity of this interval, the stock market is inevitably subject to the risk of increased shocks, and 3000 points has undoubtedly become an important barrier for the market to compete for long and short.
From 2440 to 3129, the A-share market has risen more than 25%. As forgemIn terms of the market, it has climbed from less than 1200 points to a high of 1789, and the cumulative increase is close to 50%. The market index has seen such a significant increase, while the listed company's share price performance is more active, and the cumulative increase has more than doubled, and even more.
In fact, for this round of stock market rally, both the positive entry of foreign capital and the incitement of leveraged funds are also inseparable from the improvement of many household risk appetites, which in turn triggers some assets to switch to the stock market. And recentlyCurrency ETFThe sudden drop in size is also a true portrayal. It can be seen that in the context of the substantial activation of the money-making effect in the stock market, the enthusiasm for participation in market funds has been greatly enhanced.
In the past week, the risk of high shocks in the A-share market has increased significantly, and the one-day decline has also intensified. However, the one-day rapid adjustment of the stock market is mostly related to the factors of leveraged funds. Among them, from the recent policy supervision of the attitude analysis of OTC, but it has a more regulatory attitude, and this signal is indeed worthy of market thinking.
For investors who have experienced the leveraged bull market in 2015, they are deeply impressed by the scene of on-market financing and off-market allocations. Cheng also leveraged, defeated and leveraged. It was also a true portrayal of the stock market at that time. The leveraged funds had a huge impact on the stock market at that time. However, under the influence of the significant tightening of policy supervision, a series of powerful deleveraging measures accelerated the decline of the stock market at that time, and there was a liquidity crisis during the period. The market experience and lessons at that time were also very profound.
After a few years, there is a sign of resurgence of off-exchange funds, and the market is still investigating the scale of off-exchange funds, and is strictly regulating external access, identifying problems in advance and preventing the recurrence of risks.
Compared with on-market financing, the compliance of OTC funds is questionable, and the potential capital leverage ratio is very high, often in a state where the risk is uncontrollable. At the same time, because the over-the-counter allocation is more concealed and there are factors that regulate the gray area, there are still many difficulties in the investigation of off-exchange funds, and how much capital will be involved in the off-site fund-raising. Obviously still an unknown factor.
However, after the vigorous de-leveraging process in 2015, investors are now more cautious about leveraged instruments, and the phenomenon of fully leveraged funds has been cooled more or less, but because greed belongs to people. The nature of nature, and profit-seeking is the essence of capital, so for the radical funds, when the market establishes a substantial money-making effect, often dare to use leverage tools to improve the utilization of funds.
Policy supervision gradually pays attention to the attitude of OTC, and actually more or less implies the expectation that policy supervision attitude has tightened. However, the supervision of the brokerage dealers to check the risk of fund-raising and standardize external access is actually quite difficult to operate, but for off-market fundraising, the series of regulatory measures will still have more or less impact. As for the two aspects, the balance between the two companies is still rising and the trend of innovation is high. However, compared with the off-market fund-raising, the two companies have stronger compliance, the risk control system is more perfect, and the balance of the two companies has steadily increased. The trend can still be expected.
China's A-shares, although funded as the mainstay, are better influenced by the attitude of policy supervision. Just as the previous stock market rose, in fact, it has benefited from the relatively loose attitude of policy supervision, and the reverence of the market and respect for the rules of market operation has also brought positive effects to the continued active capital.
However, precisely because the recent stock market's rising pace is too fast, it is easy to cause the expected tightening of policy supervision, and this is essentially intended to guide the market to operate healthily and steadily, so that the stock market will not rise too fast and consume the market too early. Rising momentum.
Above 3,000 points, the stock market volatility intensified, in line with market expectations. However, it is necessary to slow down the rhythm of the stock market, not to consume the market's long-term kinetic energy, but also to respect the market's operating rules and achieve self-regulation of the market. This requires precisely testing the wisdom of the city.
However, after a sharp round of previous rounds of speculation, the funds for self-rescue of the theme stocks have gradually been fulfilled, and in the absence of substantial fundamentals and profitability support, the concept stocks after the speculation are difficult to go far. . At the same time, after the market's repeated violent shocks, the market's too high speculation enthusiasm is also expected to gradually cool down, return to rationality, and the price speculative stocks are still inseparable from the value return, and the stock price is suppressed, staged by The value of stocks that are neglected in the market will still be reflected in the stock price. The timing of value investment gradually replacing price speculation may not be far behind.