Author | City boundary Qin Haiqing

 Edit | old take

 It’s hard to know how to make money, and whether you can surpass Jingdong is not known, but it’s quite a shadow of Jingdong’s.

 On March 13th, the company released a total of unaudited financial reports for the fourth quarter of 2018 and the whole year. It sold a total of 5.654 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of 2018, a year-on-year increase of 379%, but the net loss increased significantly and the number of active users increased. The speed is obviously slowing down.

 Total revenue for the full year of FY18 was 13.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 652%. The net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders for the year was 10.297 billion yuan, a loss of 499 million yuan in the same period last year. The number of active buyers of the platform reached 418.5 million, an increase of 173.7 million over the same period in 2017. In addition, the sales expenses of the company increased by 900% year-on-year, from 13.446 billion yuan to 13.424 billion yuan.

 The most proud of the fight is that in 2018, the total amount of goods sold (GMV) was 471.6 billion yuan, an increase of 234%;

 In terms of tiger sniffing research, the value of GMV is already very low. First of all, GMV is not a general accounting standard data, auditors can not effectively verify it; in addition, the existing e-commerce platform is also very different in statistical methods, some have been secret, and lack of horizontal comparability. So the GMV data just looks beautiful.

 On the eve of the release of the financial report, the company has surpassed Jingdong to become the second largest e-commerce company in China. It once appeared on the microblogging hot search list, but objectively, the current fight is more than an order of magnitude.

 In the fourth quarter of 2018, Jingdong's revenue was 134.8 billion yuan, a total of 5.7 billion yuan, less than one-twentieth of Jingdong; more than 2018 annual GMV of 471.6 billion yuan, Jingdong annual GMV of 16,700 100 million yuan, more than one-third of Jingdong; fight more than 2018 total revenue of 13.12 billion yuan, Jingdong is 462 billion yuan, is completely small.

 From the perspective of market value, in July 2018, as the largest IPO of technology stocks in 2018, the market value of US$29.778 billion was obtained by listing more than one IPO. The market value of Jingdong at that time was 52.294 billion US dollars. Since the second half of 2018, there has been a lot of competition. Continued to rise, Jingdong's share price continued to fall due to Liu Qiangdong's sexual assault scandal, resulting in more market value in January 2019 than Jingdong.

 With JD gradually getting rid of the founder crisis and taking drastic adjustments since 2019, revealed a slight sign of recovery.

 As of the close of the US stock market on March 13, Jingdong slightly rose 0.07% to 28.13 US dollars, with a market value of 40.7 billion US dollars. After the multi-year report, the first trading day, the price fell 17.45% to close at 25.12 US dollars, with a market value of 27.8 billion US dollars. More than two-thirds of Jingdong, to the market value all the way to Jingdong, and even once over Jingdong, and now the market value gap between Jingduo and Jingdong has begun to widen.

 So, how do you fight more than Jingdong?

 A report by UBS, the European financial holding group, said that the 2018 GMV increased by 234% year-on-year, while grew by only 29.5%; especially in the annual active users, the total amount was 418 million, surpassing JD's 305 million. According to this calculation, UBS will maintain a compound annual growth rate of more than 60% in the next three years. In 2021, more GMVs will surpass Jingdong. By then, the number of active users will reach 628 million.

 Based on the current growth rate, the research institute believes that the fight will surpass Jingdong in the future. But what will happen in the future, who can predict?

 Some analysts believe that the increase in the number of active users and GMV transactions is still the fastest in the head e-commerce, but the marketing costs are too high. The low-cost group mode succeeded in getting customers, but the profit margin left was too narrow. There is a negative feedback effect between the two: the more the spell is narrower, the price increase disappears.

 Some netizens believe that the most important issue at present is not to surpass anyone, but to solve the problem of counterfeit goods first. Since the birth of a lot of self-skills, the products on the platform, counterfeit and shoddy goods are often criticized by users.

 A lot of CEO Huang Wei also said in the earnings conference call that efforts will be made to reduce the number of counterfeit and shoddy goods and infringing products. In 2019, the anti-counterfeiting team will add 500 employees. In addition, the company will also set up a technical advisory committee, former Microsoft Global Executive Vice President, now YC China founder, fight more independent directors, Baidu Board Vice Chairman Dr. Lu Qi will lead the technical committee related work.

 Do you think that the future will surpass Jingdong in the future?

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