Under the circumstances that the proportion of foreign capital in the market share of A shares continues to rise, foreign capital has gradually gained a certain voice and influence. For the market, the continuous net flow of foreign capital often represents the market attitude of smart funds or prophetic funds, and has a certain reference role in the running trend of the stock market.
Stepping into May, as a Northward-funded fund that has received much attention from the market, its net outflow has intensified. Among them, just recently, the Northward funds once again had a single-day net outflow of more than 10 billion yuan, and the single-day net outflow scale became the peak level of the net outflow in a single day.
It should be noted that on the one hand, the net inflow of funds to the north has exceeded 100 billion yuan since this year, and the net outflow of the most recent month has not completely changed the state of large net inflows during the year. Attitude is not too pessimistic; on the other hand, the northward funds are not exactly equivalent to foreign funds. Under actual circumstances, some domestic funds rely on the low interest rate advantage of the Hong Kong stock market channel, and disguisedly enter the A-share market by means of Lu-share, and some of the north-facing funds are actually inseparable from the domestic funds, and some funds are even high. Leveraged domestic speculative funds.
For the single-day large net outflow of northward funds, it is still inseparable from the comprehensive consideration of many factors. One aspect is the fluctuation of the exchange rate, which triggers a change in the attitude of the net flow of some northward funds. In the case of northward funds, stock price fluctuations are a factor to be considered, but exchange rate fluctuations also need to be taken into account; During the holiday period, the volatility of the A-share market increased slightly. Considering the risk-avoidance factor, some North-way funds chose the net outflow in the first trading day of the resumption of trading of the stock exchange, which is still the expected action of the market. In addition, considering the valuation difference between the two markets and the factor of discount and premium rate, some Northbound funds will use this to achieve arbitrage demand.
However, in the final analysis, for Northbound funds, it is more likely to be affected by investment sentiment. As an emotional A-share market, capital investment sentiment often affects the volatility level of the stock market itself. In reality, it is better to say that the A-share market is a policy market or a market dominated by funds.
Since the beginning of this year, the overall volatility of the A-share market has not been low. Among them, from the analysis of market performance in the first four months, the Shanghai stock market climbed from 2,440.91 points to 3,284.45 points, and since April, the Shanghai stock market has adjusted from 3,284.45 points to 2,383.38 points. In a short period of time, the cumulative market adjustment has reached 13.68%. However, after this round of rapid adjustment, the average valuation of the A-share market has once again returned to the low valuation area. Among them, as of May 14, the Shanghai stock market average price-earnings ratio of 13.30 times, the deep market average price-earnings ratio of 23.05 times. As for the Shenzhen City, the average price-earnings ratio of the main board is 16.42 times.Small and medium boardas well asgemThe average P/E ratio of the market is 25.47 times and 39.12 times respectively.
From the valuation of the stock market, although the average valuation of China's A shares is still slightly higher than the Hong Kong stock market, considering the liquidity advantage of the A-share market, the A-share market can still give a moderate premium rate. However, for foreign capital, the primary consideration may be the need for hedging and exchange rate fluctuations. In other words, in the context of a slight increase in exchange rate fluctuations, the net outflow pressure of foreign capital still exists. However, when the exchange rate environment is gradually stabilized and the low valuation advantage of the A-share market is further highlighted, it is likely to gradually reverse the pattern of a large net outflow of funds from the north, and even gradually return to the trend of continuous net inflow of funds from the north.