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Three quarterly report comments: performance growth slowed down, overseas orders gradually cashed

Westdollar.com November 09, 2018 00:00 Guohai Securities Zhou Shaoqian View original PDF

New coordinates (603040)

event:

The new coordinates released in the 2018 quarterly report: The company achieved operating income of 219 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2018, +16.1% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 179 million yuan, up +7.5% year-on-year. Net profit was 0.7 billion yuan, compared with -1.0% year-on-year; among them, operating income in the third quarter was 75 million yuan, down +5.9% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 28 million yuan, compared with -4.63% year-on-year. The profit was 0.24 billion yuan, compared with -16.0%.

Investment points:

In the third quarter, the growth rate of the company slowed down by 5.9% in the third quarter, and the net profit of non-returning mothers fell by 16%, lower than expected. The gross profit margin in the single quarter was 63.6%, which was 1.0pct higher than the same period. The outstanding performance, thanks to the steady growth of precision cold forging products of the valve train, contributed about 140 million yuan in revenue in the first three quarters. The expense ratio during the first three quarters was 25%, an increase of 6.7pct year-on-year, mainly due to the impact of amortization of equity incentive expenses.

Overseas orders gradually fulfilled the company's continuous development of the valve transmission group product market. In the third quarter, the company began to export the German Volkswagen hydraulic tappet project. It is expected to contribute about 2 million yuan in a single month. It is still in the climbing stage. The potential space in the European market is similar to that in China. Corresponds to the doubling of sales of current valve train products.

Old customers continue to expand new projects, new customers will receive new orders. It is expected to start adding new Geely products in the fourth quarter. The initial incremental contribution is limited. Due to the coverage of the 1.4T and 1.8T engine models, the new batch will be gradually realized in the next year. . The old customer Volkswagen EA888 engine rocker project is expected to contribute in 2019, the company's growth rate is slightly lower than expected but has begun to gradually fulfill, 2019 performance growth is highly certain.

Earnings forecast and investment rating: The downward adjustment of the neutral rating is expected to be 1.18/1.80/1.81 yuan for 2018/2019/2020, corresponding to the current share price PE of 20/17/17 times respectively. The company's growth in 2019 is highly certain, and in 2020 There are certain challenges and will be temporarily downgraded to a neutral rating.

Risk Warning: The progress of customer expansion is less than expected; the construction of overseas production bases is less than expected; the risk of rising raw material costs; the impact of exchange gains and losses on performance uncertainty.

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New coordinate fundamental data
  • Total share capital of 0.80 billion shares
  • Circulating shares of 0.32 billion shares
  • Earnings per share 0.99 yuan
  • Undistributed profit per share 3.76 yuan
  • Net assets per share 8.22 yuan
  • ROE 12.72%
  • Net profit of 798.612 million
  • Net profit growth rate 7.51%
New coordinate investment rating
Overall rating in January
Overall rating in March
Statistical period Buy Overweight neutral Reduction Sell total
Within one month031004
Within three months031004
Within six months151007
Within a year5810014
New coordinate profit forecast
                                index 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E
Earnings per share (yuan) 1.32 1.51 1.93 2.46
Net profit (100 million yuan) 1.05 1.20 1.53 1.96
name Quote change Number of research reports Institutional investment rating (nearly six months)
Buy Overweight neutral Reduction Sell
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New day constant force 10.04% 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chunxing Seiko 5.99% 0 0 0 0 0 0
Fangda Group 5.66% 0 0 0 0 0 0
Phoenix-shaped shares 5.38% 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dongshan Precision 4.69% 17 15 2 0 0 0
Zhongfang shares 3.93% 0 0 0 0 0 0
Hongyu new material 3.53% 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jianlang Hardware 3.31% 0 0 0 0 0 0
Fangda B 2.86% 0 0 0 0 0 0
Good wife 2.59% 9 4 5 0 0 0
Victory 2.38% 5 4 1 0 0 0
Xinjingang 2.14% 0 0 0 0 0 0
Corson Technology 1.61% 1 1 0 0 0 0
Jingda shares 1.46% 0 0 0 0 0 0
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Data Sources:Eastern Fortune Choice Data