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The sales target is overfulfilled and the rental income is growing rapidly.

Westdollar.com January 11, 2019 00:00 Southwest Securities Hu Huaru View original PDF

New Town Holdings (601155)

Event: The company released its business briefing for December and April 2018.

Sales exceeded 200 billion, and the growth rate of TOP10 housing enterprises was the first. In December 2018, the company achieved sales of 22.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, a sequential increase of 30.8%, a sales area of ​​2.208 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 41.1%, a sequential increase of 52.2%, and an average sales price of 10,205 yuan / flat. The company's sales from January to December reached 221.10 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 74.8%. The sales area reached 181.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 95.2%, and the average sales price was 12201 yuan/level. In 2018, the company's sales target is 180 billion yuan. In the current market environment, it still exceeds its sales target. It ranks eighth in the Kruger rankings, and its growth rate ranks first among the top 10 housing companies, far exceeding the mainstream housing enterprises. Average growth rate of 20%-30%. Since the second half of 2018, the company has continued to push hard, and the distribution of vending value has been well-reformed. In the case of the decline in the growth rate of most mainstream housing companies, the company has a three-month growth rate of more than 200%.

Take a steady land and ample land, and test the water for the elderly and education. The company's land acquisition in December was affected by the high base, and the area growth rate declined significantly. The newly added capacity was 29.13 million square meters, down 47.6% year-on-year and 38.7% quarter-on-quarter. The payment of equity price was 14.98 billion yuan, up 56.9% year-on-year, 334.2% quarter-on-quarter, and the average price of land was 5274 yuan/level. The reason why the growth rate of equity price far exceeds the growth rate of Jirong Jianbian is that the company tests the water for the aged and the land for education. In December, it purchased a piece of land in Beijing that involves pension, and purchased another land use in Nanjing. The plot price is 22,385 yuan / flat and 15,802 yuan / flat, respectively, and the equity is 100%. In 2018, the company added a total of 25.36 million square meters of building capacity, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and paid equity price of 67.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%. Due to the positive expansion of the company's land acquisition in 2017 (the capacity of Jianrong Jianye increased by 122%) In the current situation of the mainstream housing companies continue to be cautious, the company is still more active. According to our estimation, the company's total land reserve at the end of 2018 is nearly 75 million square meters. According to the average selling price of 12,201 yuan per square meter, it is estimated to be about 900 billion in hand value, which can be settled in 4-5 years.

Residential commercial two-wheel drive, rental income has increased significantly. Commercial property performance continues to shine, and the current sales area of ​​the complex has accounted for about 30% of the total sales area. The rental income contribution of Wuyue Plaza continued to increase substantially. The rent and management fee income in the fourth quarter was 730 million, an increase of 28% from the previous quarter. In 2018, the annual rental and management fee income was 2.16 billion, an increase of 103% year-on-year, and the average occupancy rate was 99%. At present, 42 sets of Wuyue Plaza have been opened, 16 more than the first half of the year, and 38 of the Fu Yue Plaza under construction and proposed to be built. It is expected that the rental and management fee income will continue to grow rapidly in the future.

Earnings forecast and rating. The EPS of 2018-2020 is expected to be 3.96 yuan, 5.49 yuan, and 7.12 yuan respectively, corresponding to 6/4/3 times of PE. Considering that the company's sales growth exceeds its peers, maintain a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: sales growth slows down, land acquisition is more difficult, and funds are returned or slowed down.

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Xincheng Holding Fundamental Data
  • Total share capital 2.257 billion shares
  • Circulating shares 2.246 billion shares
  • Earnings per share 4.65 yuan
  • Undistributed profit per share of 10.61 yuan
  • Net assets per share 13.07 yuan
  • Return on equity (41.91%)
  • Net profit 1,409,286,600
  • Net profit growth rate 74.02%
Xincheng Holdings Investment Rating
Overall rating within one month
Overall rating in March
Statistical period Buy Overweight neutral Reduction Sell total
Within one month11200013
Within three monthstwenty three200025
Within six months25200027
Within a year34300037
New Town Holdings Earnings Forecast
                                index 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E
Earnings per share (yuan) 2.67 4.65 6.04 7.73
Net profit (100 million yuan) 60.30 104.92 136.28 174.44
name Quote change Number of research reports Institutional investment rating (nearly six months)
Buy Overweight neutral Reduction Sell
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