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The nuclear drug faucet is taking off soon, and the piglet is holding the heparin turning point upwards.

Westdollar.com March 14, 2019 00:00 Guosheng Securities Zhang Jinyang View original PDF

Dongcheng Pharmaceutical (002675)

Domestic heparin leader, China's nuclear medicine leading company. After years of development, the company was first used as one of the domestic biochemical raw material drug production bases. After that, it successively acquired Chengdu Yunke Pharmaceutical, Shanghai Yitai Medicine, Dongcheng Xinke, Nanjing Jiangyuan Andike, and completed the company from biochemical raw materials. The layout of the nuclear medicine sector. At present, the company's business segment continues to improve, and the nuclear drug sector has developed into the core of the company. In the future, it is expected to release the potential of nuclear medicine in the Chinese market, and its performance will continue to grow steadily!

The imbalance between supply and demand of heparin raw materials will lead to future price increases, and the company will benefit from the future of African pigs. Due to the African swine fever epidemic in the Chinese market, the number of live pigs will decline in 2019-2020. We judge that the price of heparin raw materials will further increase in the future. After the occurrence of African swine fever, we believe that the company will benefit. The company's crude heparin inventory can hedge the future price increase of crude products and will also benefit from the price increase of heparin bulk drugs. In the future, even if the stock is insufficient, the cost will be passed on through the price increase. To the downstream.

The domestic market for nuclear medicine is growing rapidly, and the per capita output in China is much lower than that in the United States, and the market potential is large. In recent years, with the advancement of domestic nuclear medicine and the continuous improvement of the national and public awareness of radiopharmaceuticals, the domestic nuclear drug industry has developed rapidly, with a compound annual growth rate of 18.6%. The total domestic market is expected to reach 9 billion by 2021. yuan. Compared with the United States, the per capita expenditure of domestic nuclear medicine has increased from 1.8 yuan in 2012 to 2.8 yuan in 2016, while the United States has increased from 37.2 yuan in 2012 to 51.9 yuan in 2016. The penetration rate of the domestic market is expected to continue to increase and shrink. The gap in the United States.

The integration of nuclear medicine is advancing rapidly, and the performance of Yunke, GMS and Andyco is expected to continue to grow steadily. 1. With its good therapeutic effect and customer stickiness, Yunke Injection is actively promoting the marketing reform, and the performance is expected to continue to grow steadily. 2. The acquisition of GMS enriches the layout of Dongcheng nuclear medicine pipeline, and the stable growth of the target drug The SPECT/CT benefit allocation certificate is released, and the increase is expected to further increase the growth rate of the target drug. The domestic market of iodine [125I] sealed seed source continues to grow steadily, and the urea [14C] breath test kit company is expected to gradually solve the gas collection. Card issue; 3. The integration of Adico further compensated for the company's vacancies in positron chemistry, the good R&D and sales team and the integration of nuclear pharmacy resources, making the network layout of Dongcheng in China's nuclear medicine Initial formation, in addition, Andyco's core product 18F-FDG will benefit from the release of the PET/CT configuration certificate.

Company earnings forecast and investment rating. It is estimated that the net profit of the company in the year of 2019-2021 is 365 million yuan, 462 million yuan and 583 million yuan, up 30%, 27% and 26%, corresponding to PE of 27X, 22X and 17X respectively; EPS is 0.45 yuan respectively. , 0.58 yuan and 0.73 yuan. For the first time, give a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: the price of APIs declined; the performance of the nuclear medicine sector was lower than expected.

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Dongcheng Pharmaceutical Fundamental Data
  • Total share capital of 802 million shares
  • Circulating shares 630 million shares
  • Earnings per share of 0.35 yuan
  • Undistributed profit per share of 1.08 yuan
  • Net assets per share 5.22 yuan
  • Return on equity 7.73%
  • Net profit 280,426,700
  • Net profit growth rate 62.44%
Dongcheng Pharmaceutical Investment Rating
Overall rating within one month
Overall rating in March
Statistical period Buy Overweight neutral Reduction Sell total
Within one month300003
Within three months900009
Within six months12000012
Within a year15000015
Dongcheng Pharmaceutical Profit Forecast
                                index 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E
Earnings per share (yuan) 0.22 0.35 0.47 0.60
Net profit (100 million yuan) 1.72 2.81 3.74 4.80
name Quote change Number of research reports Institutional investment rating (nearly six months)
Buy Overweight neutral Reduction Sell
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