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April 2019 sales data comments: April sales of beautiful, Beijing changed to important targets

Westdollar.com May 15, 2019 00:00 Huachuang Securities View original PDF

First opening shares (600376)

event:

On May 8th, the first opening shares announced April sales data. In April, the contracted amount reached 12.66 billion yuan, up +70.3% year-on-year; the contracted area was 415,000 square meters, +53.1% year-on-year; the cumulative signing amount was 22.93 billion in January-April Yuan, +31.4% year-on-year, the cumulative contracted area was 83.1 million, compared with +28.0%.

Comments:

April sales of 12.7 billion yuan, +70% year-on-year, cumulative sales of 22.93 billion yuan in January-April, +31% year-on-year. The company achieved a contracted amount of 12.66 billion yuan, +117.3% from the previous month, +70.3% from the same period of last year. The monthly increase was 24.9pct, which was significantly higher than the average price of the 50-room real estate in April. The average monthly rate was +23.9%. The contracted area was 415,000 square meters, which was +81.4% from the previous month and +53.1% from the previous month. The increase was 11.6pct from the previous month. The 45-city April transaction area, which outperformed our high-frequency tracking, was +34.2% year-on-year; the average selling price was 30,528 yuan/square meter, which was +19.8%, +11.2% year-on-year. From January to April, the company achieved a total contracted amount of 22.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +31.4%, and completed a sales plan of 22.7% at the beginning of the year; the cumulative contracted area was 831,000 square meters, up +28.0% year-on-year. The cumulative average selling price was RMB 27,589/sqm, which was 3.4% higher than the average price in 18 years. In view of the fact that 75% of the company's land bank is located in the strong first- and second-tier cities, and the land bank in Beijing accounts for 31% of the total land bank, in the current 1st and second-tier markets, it is expected to degrade or exceed expectations in the past 19 years.

The important target of Beijing's national reform, actively explore the diversified incentive mechanism, and the outstanding advantages of Beijing's state-owned assets integration

In the past 18 years, the Beijing Municipal Government successively issued the three-year action plan and supporting documents of the National Reform, and the North China Huachuang Equity Incentive Plan was approved. The E-city equity incentive draft was issued, and the speed of Beijing's national reform promotion was significantly accelerated. On the one hand, Shoukai has successively launched two rounds of cash incentive programs, which belong to enterprises that explore diversified incentives earlier in state-owned enterprises. It can be said that the company is born with market-oriented reform genes; on the other hand, the company is in total assets and net assets. Various indicators such as operating income and net profit are far ahead of other Beijing state-owned housing enterprises, giving them a distinct advantage in the horizontal integration of 14 Beijing-owned state-owned housing enterprises. The recent opening of the Group's consolidated real estate group may also indicate integration. At the beginning, the company is expected to further expand the quality of soil storage in Beijing.

Investment suggestion: In April, the sales will be beautiful, and the Beijing country will be changed to the important target.

As the state-owned housing company in Beijing, the first shareholding in Beijing is based on the acceleration of Beijing's national reform, relying on the rich experience of incentive programs and the significant advantages in the integration of state-owned assets in Beijing. It is expected to be an important target for Beijing. The company has been reorganized since 2007. After that, he actively changed, deepened in Beijing, and actively expanded outside Beijing, and promoted sales growth. He became the first domestic billion-owned local-funded real estate enterprise in China. At present, the company's layout is dominated by the strong first and second lines, and it is the king of Beijing earthenware, and the first and second lines are sold. The recovery gives it strong sales flexibility. We maintain our forecasted earnings per share for the year 2019-20 of 1.41, 1.63 yuan, corresponding to 6.3 times PE for 19 years, 55% for NAV, 9.0 times for 19-year target PE, and maintain target price of 12.67 yuan, reaffirming "strong push" Rating.

Risk warning: The real estate market regulation policy exceeded expectations and the industry funds were less than expected.

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First open stock fundamental data
  • Total share capital of 2.58 billion shares
  • Circulating shares of 2.546 billion shares
  • Earnings per share 0.14 yuan
  • Undistributed profit per share 4.29 yuan
  • Net assets per share of 8.94 yuan
  • Return on equity 1.12%
  • Net profit 360.276 million
  • Net profit growth rate 15.33%
First open stock investment rating
Overall rating within one month
Overall rating in March
Statistical period Buy Overweight neutral Reduction Sell total
Within one month200002
Within three months710008
Within six months710008
Within a year8400012
First opening stock profit forecast
                                index 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E
Earnings per share (yuan) 1.23 1.37 1.62 1.79
Net profit (100 million yuan) 31.68 35.26 41.66 46.15
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