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In-depth report: from consumer pack leader to power star, big customers start the company's first year of power

Westdollar.com May 15, 2019 00:00 Soochow Securities Zeng Duhong View original PDF

Xinwangda (300207)

The global consumer module leader, horizontal expansion of the power battery market, has unlimited potential. The company started from the consumption pack in 1997 and has won the favor of mainstream enterprises at home and abroad. At present, it is the leader of domestic consumer modules, with a global market share of nearly 25%. In 2011, the company expanded its power pack business. In 2015, it began to develop power batteries. With years of power pack and BMS foundation, it entered the domestic first-line automaker Geely and overseas car Renault Nissan supply chain in 2019, and gradually grew from a consumer module leader to a power battery. Rookie. The company continued to explore new profit points in the lithium battery industry and build a lithium battery carrier with an annual revenue of 20.34 billion yuan and a compound growth rate of 52% in 2009-18.

 Power battery capacity release + successfully cut into the first-tier car supply chain, the company enjoys the rise of second-tier battery companies. The market's high-quality ternary power battery capacity is insufficient, and the supply is concentrated, and the car companies are eager to cultivate the second supply. Xinwangda established the Power Battery R&D Institute in 15 years. The core team is from well-known battery companies such as ATL, with more than 800 R&D personnel. After three years of research and development, the company began to develop the power battery market in 18 years. The product is a high-performance square ternary. In early 19th, it successfully cut into the Geely supply chain. Geely evaluation is high. In the second quarter, it will start to support a large number of Geely Emgrand EVs; overseas markets have Received Renault's big orders and actively expanded European and other car companies. In terms of production capacity, 2gwh will be invested at the end of the second quarter. At that time, the production capacity will reach 4gwh. At the same time, the company plans to invest 30gwh in Nanjing and plans to invest 12 billion yuan. The first phase of 8gwh will be put into production at the end of 19th. In 18 years, the company's power battery shipments are 0.2gwh, which is mainly used for Liuqi. In the past 19 years, it is expected to be driven by Geely, Liuqi and Yundu. Shipments are expected to reach 2gwh or above, and the profit and loss balance is expected in 19 years.

The mobile phone PACK business ranks first in the world, and the self-powered core + shaped battery core increases the profit of the single machine. The company's mobile phone battery pack has a global market share of 20-25%, and Desai battery ranks among the top two in the world. It is the main supplier of Apple, Huawei, oppo, millet, vivo, etc., with a penetration rate of 25-40%, brand recognition. Extremely high. Global mobile phone sales have continued to grow negatively, and it is expected to bring about the growth of mobile phone sales in the 5G era in 2020. At the same time, the company pays attention to endogenous growth, self-powered core to increase gross profit margin, the proportion of self-powered core reached 10% in 18 years, the gross profit margin of the sector was 15.35%, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year. It is expected to further increase to around 20% in 19 years, further improve Gross profit margin.

 The notebook business continued its high growth trend, and the intelligent hardware-bound Xiaomi ecological chain grew steadily. The soft pack battery currently accounts for about 75% of the notebook battery, and is expected to increase to 90% in the next two years. The company will continue to enjoy the dividend from the industrial chain to the inland. At present, the company has already supplied notebooks such as Apple and Xiaomi. It is expected that the business will grow by 70% this year to about 3.5 billion. Xiaomi Ecological Chain is the world's largest intelligent hardware platform, which will lead to great growth. As a core supplier of Xiaomi, the company is expected to benefit from it. The revenue of intelligent hardware segment in the 18-year period is 3.06 billion, up 308% year-on-year. It is expected that the scale of the plate will be maintained in the next three years. More than 30% growth rate.

Earnings forecast and investment rating: We expect the company's net profit for 2019-21 to be 10.26/14.89/21.08 billion yuan, EPS 0.66/0.96/1.36 yuan, corresponding to PE 19.29/13.30/9.39 times. Considering that the company is a leader in lithium battery modules, has a good technical reserve, and the power battery customers are progressing smoothly, we give the company 28 times PE in 2019, corresponding to the target price of 18.5 yuan, and the first coverage is given a “buy” rating.

Risk Warning: Battery and material prices fluctuate and industry competition intensifies.

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Xinwangda Fundamental Data
  • Total share capital of 1.548 billion shares
  • Circulating shares 1.397 billion shares
  • Earnings per share 0.09 yuan
  • Undistributed profit per share 1.23 yuan
  • Net assets per share of 3.59 yuan
  • ROE 2.45%
  • Net profit 133.6406 million
  • Net profit growth rate 15.94%
Xinwangda Investment Rating
Overall rating within one month
Overall rating in March
Statistical period Buy Overweight neutral Reduction Sell total
Within one month440008
Within three months10400014
Within six months13600019
Within a yeartwenty one900030
Xinwangda Profit Forecast
                                index 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E
Earnings per share (yuan) 0.45 0.69 0.96 1.42
Net profit (100 million yuan) 7.01 10.65 14.90 21.92
name Quote change Number of research reports Institutional investment rating (nearly six months)
Buy Overweight neutral Reduction Sell
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Remote share -1.00% 0 0 0 0 0 0
Easy -1.53% 1 0 1 0 0 0
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Zhengtai Electric -1.95% 13 10 3 0 0 0
Zhongyeda -1.95% 2 2 0 0 0 0
Siyuan Electric -2.15% 1 0 1 0 0 0
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