Tianxin Investment: Four factors predict that the stock index will test a support
Today's market comment:
The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were opened higher in the morning due to the impact of the external upswing, but then they oscillated downwards. The stock indexes near the market closed green, and the stock index also closed out four consecutive negative trends. Overall, today's market opened higher and lower, the stock index continued to perform poorly; and the trend of individual stocks was also restrained, and the performance of individual stocks was not active. Except for a small number of varieties, there were more varieties falling. Shell resources, water reform, coal and other sectors were among the top gainers; software, non-ferrous metals, vitamins and other leading companies fell.
Tomorrow's market observation:
Yesterday we pointed out that the market will be subject to the transmission of the external market. Today's market opening in the early morning is fully in line with the expectation of conduction. Subsequently, the stock indexes continue to fall, which is completely the inherent nature of A shares. Although the stock index today opened higher and lower, it did not form a panic. It is expected that the market will continue to maintain a high probability of shock consolidation tomorrow.
Short-term market analysis:
Although the stock index has already seen a four-day stagnation, the adjustment of the short-term stock index has not shown signs of ending. First, technical repairs are still going on, especiallyShanghai indexThe MACD indicator tends to adjust the form is more obvious; second, the stock index is delayed to cover the gap gap in the previous period. As the time period is extended, the long-term change occurs, and the pressure of the gap position still exists. Third, the stock index has already There are four consecutive yin, in the process of four consecutive yin, the sentiment of individual stocks continues to fall, which will, to a certain extent, be consistent with the investor sentiment of the market, thus bringing about the “domino effect”; fourth, the fall of the stock index today is already effective. It has broken the support of the 5-day moving average. If it cannot be recovered tomorrow, the market will continue to fluctuate.
The recent market retreat is the basic characteristic of the A-share market, and will not be transferred due to the external surge. It is expected that the stock index will still be repeated in the short term. However, under the premise that various positives are continuously formed, the adjustment is still relatively small. It is expected that the first support of the stock index will be around 2620.
Outlook outlook for the market outlook:
According to the comprehensive analysis, as the market enters the trend of four consecutive yin since this week, it seems that the stock index has not fallen much, but the expected impact on investors' psychology is very obvious. At the same time, we see the number of stocks in the last four trading days. Continued to shrink, the willingness to do more is obviously weakened. Under the premise that individual stocks and stock indexes are not ideal, the operation should continue to be cautious. It is recommended to continue to control the position, not to worry about chasing high, and shock consolidation is a good opportunity for low suction.
Xiangcai Securities: The difficulty of the market's upward breakthrough has begun to increase
Today, the two stock indexes opened higher and then fell back. After seeing the early lows at 10:05, the shocks rebounded to noon closing; the stock indexes continued to fall and turn green in the afternoon; hot spots: ST plate, water reform, venture capital concept, pork, biology The vaccine, superconducting concept, renting and purchasing rights, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, cultural and educational leisure and other sectors performed well; overall: today the market once again showed shock consolidation.
Why did the upside momentum weaken yesterday? In the blog post, Xiang Bo Securities Fan Bo clearly expressed an important point: "The pressure on the Shanghai index is not to be underestimated. The rise of the stocks and non-mainstream sectors is unfavorable for the upward development of the market. Wrong. "I believe investors who have long read our blog should understand our attitude very well.
Then, from today's disk, the stock index is higher by the impact of the external upswing, but because the A shares are not strong core reasons, today's market did not follow the US stocks, this again shows A shares and US stocks It is not a positive correlation, so investors who compare US stocks and A-shares need to continue to follow suit. The basic logic of any matter analysis is of course the first cause and the second.
From a technical point of view, the Shanghai index has been in this position for four days, and the upward impact has been fruitless for many times. The highest range of fluctuations is at 2676 points. Most of the hotspots are small-scale, non-influenced marginalized sectors, especially It is the large-scale daily limit of the ST sector today, which also explains the nature of the market's weakness. Of course, the operation must be based on defense.
To sum up one sentence: horizontal consolidation will not last long. After all the hotspots are finished, when the upward momentum of the market is exhausted, the strength of the shorts will come back. The short-term tactics are mainly strategic.
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