As a highly open and small economy, Hong Kong is sensitive to changes in the periphery. The impact of the increase in uncertainties on the Hong Kong economy has begun to emerge.
"Hong Kong's economic growth has been higher than the trend growth rate in the past eight quarters, but it has begun to slow down in the fourth quarter of last year. The local business environment has gradually turned to prudence." On January 10, Hong Kong Financial Secretary Chen Maobo was on the theme of reform and opening up. The general forum said.
At the same time, since November 2018, Hong Kong's merchandise exports and retail sales have declined, and growth has been repeated. According to data released by the Statistics Department of the Hong Kong SAR Government, the value of Hong Kong's total exports in November 2018 decreased by 0.8% year-on-year to HK$364.3 billion. The retail sales growth in November fell by 4.6%.
"In the past year, the global political and economic situation is full of uncertainty, geopolitical changes,interest rateVarious factors, such as rising, have brought certain impacts to the global economy and the business environment. Cai Guanshen, president of the Hong Kong Chinese General Chamber of Commerce, also said at the forum.
The Hong Kong economy is particularly relevant to the economic situation in the Chinese mainland.
"Export,real estateAnd the three major areas of infrastructure investment have led to historical peaks. China’s economic development has gradually shifted from a high-speed growth track to a medium-speed growth stage,” Liu Shijin, former deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said at the forum. In the past two years, China's economic growth rate will reach 6.2%. After that, the medium-speed growth platform may be adjusted to between 5% and 6%. According to international experience, this medium-speed growth platform will likely last for 10 years or more. ”
Property market adjustment but stress is difficult to solve
The property market in Hong Kong peaked in July 2018, and the increase was as high as 11.94%. However, in the context of weak global economic growth, the property market has begun to enter an adjustment period. According to data released by the Hong Kong Land Registry on January 3, the number of property registrations fell to 3038 in December 2018, a sharp drop of 57.56%.
Chen Maobo pointed out that the property market in Hong Kong has decreased significantly since August 2018. As of the end of November 2018, the residential price index has fallen by about 7%, but compared with the peak period of 1997, the cumulative increase still reached 112%.
In recent years, property prices in Hong Kong have soared and are out of line with the increase in the income of the public. This has become a topic of great concern to the community.
Chen Maobo published a blog on the 6th that he would look for the right time to "do not cause the property market to refuel" and not affect it.bankUnder the premise of systemic risk, the driver who has the ability to contribute but the first period is insufficient to seek a solution.” However, after the forum on the 10th, he did not respond to the media’s question “when will consider relaxing the mortgage ratio”.
On the same day, the Chief Executive of Hong Kong, Mrs Lam, said that the property market was an economic indicator reflecting the economic slowdown in Hong Kong. The first-hand housing that was recently launched also showed that property prices were soft, but she stressed that this was only a "health adjustment." She admits that although the property market has stabilized since August 2018, it still has a 3.9% increase in the first 11 months of 2018, which is an increase of 8.5% compared with the time when the SAR government took office in July 2017.
Participation in the “Belt and Road” should be focused
In recent years, Hong Kong has been actively participating in the construction of the “Belt and Road”, giving full play to the role of super contacts and looking for new opportunities for economic transformation.
"When Hong Kong participates in the 'One Belt, One Road' initiative, we should consider the advantages of Hong Kong, where it will be more successful, and focus on strategic deployment. Hong Kong's main advantages are concentrated in infrastructure financing and engineering, law, dispute resolution and other specialties. Service category." Chen Maobo said.
He believes that from a geographical perspective, Hong Kong has a greater advantage in areas along the Maritime Silk Road. "In the past, there were many overseas Chinese in these areas, and many industries that went to the Mainland often transferred to these familiar areas when transferring production bases. ASEAN is one of our key markets. We have signed a free trade agreement with ASEAN, signed a comprehensive double taxation agreement with India, and plans to establish an economic and trade office in Thailand."
According to the latest data, Hong Kong is the fourth largest in ASEAN.Foreign direct investmentSource, after Singapore, the United States and Japan. In 2016, the amount of foreign direct investment from Hong Kong was US$9.9 billion, a 218% increase from 2011 and 10% of the total foreign direct investment of ASEAN.
(Article source: 21st Century Business Herald)