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Shanghai Finance University's latest survey: Shanghai residents' willingness to buy houses and expected warmth

January 11, 2019 06:59

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Summary
[Shanghai Finance University's latest survey: Shanghai residents' willingness to buy houses and expected warmth] "I have to find a new house again. I have a set of two rooms and two halls, and I was preemptively paid by another couple when I talked about the price." 'Cut Hu.' Ms. Yu from Shanghai told the Daily Economic News reporter: "I should have paid the deposit earlier, but the small house in my hand has not been sold yet. ("Daily Economic News)

"I have to find a new house again. I have a set of two rooms and two halls. When I talked about the price, I was preemptively paid by another couple to cut the whole money." Ms. Yu of Shanghai told the Daily Daily. Economic News reporter: "I should have paid the deposit earlier, but the small house in my hand has not been sold yet, and the cash is not enough."

along withHouse priceGradually loosening, more and more consumers believe that the current market state is more involvedHershey'smachine. This conclusion comes from the latest findings of the Shanghai Center for Social Research and Research and the Center for Applied Statistics of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics.

Residents' purchase intention index rose sharply

Ms. Yu’s fancy house is located in the middle and outer ring of Shanghai, with a price of 7.28 million yuan. The house of the same type is quoted at around 7.4 million yuan, and the landlord is also anxious to replace.

However, in the process of Ms. Yu entrusted the intermediary bargaining, another couple first paid the full amount of 7.15 million yuan, equivalent to 72,000 yuan / square meter, from the viewing to payment for 2 weeks. Ms. Yu’s fancy house in the same district with a listing price of 6.15 million yuan was recently sold.

Shanghai Social Research and Research Center Shangcai Center and Shanghai University of Finance and Economics Applied Statistics Research Center recently released the "Shanghai Social and Economic Index Series of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics in the Fourth Quarter of 2018", showing the Shanghai Consumers' Willingness to Buy Houses in the Fourth Quarter of 2018 It rose sharply to 61.1 points, up 8.9 points month-on-month and 2.0 points year-on-year, reaching a higher point in the survey. The buying opportunity timing index was 63.8 points, up 3.9 points month-on-month and down 3.7 points year-on-year.

The survey pointed out that residents are rightreal estateThe long-term judgment is gradually forming, and it also reflects the confidence in the market's mature and stable operation. In the fourth quarter of 2018, residents' purchases are expected to be basically the same as the purchase intentions, and slightly better than the current purchase intention. Consumers who believe that the current and future period of time are not suitable for home purchases are slowly decreasing. The consumers who think that the time is “good” are 18.6%, which is 0.9 percentage points higher than the 17.7% in the third quarter of 2018, a slight decrease of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year; The number of consumers who believe that the timing is “not good” is 54.7%, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points from the previous month and an increase of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year.

In the central area of ​​Shanghai, an intermediary Xiaochen (a pseudonym) specializing in second-hand housing for a large-scale real estate told the Daily Economic News reporter: "To be honest, the house is now cheap, and it is an opportunity for buyers. This district is December. The second-hand house we handled was about 18 sets in the trading center, which was significantly higher than that in November."

A regional manager of a chain of housing agencies in Shanghai told reporters of the Daily Economic News: "The recent market turnover has increased slightly, but it is still not warm."

Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Real Estate Research Center, said: "From the data of the social survey, the market is still picking up. The market expectation is slightly better in the near future, especially the continuous RRR reduction and various urban policies are relaxed. Come to certain market opportunities."

High housing replacement costs and high capital pressure

"The current market is expected to be adjusted, the wait-and-see mood is obviously weakened, and some areas and properties will have a chance to pick up." Yan Yuejin said.

Under the policy control, the second-hand housing continued to cool down, the overall market wait-and-see mood was obvious, and the replacement cost remained high, and the opportunity for housing change was greatly reduced. In the second half of 2018, Ms. Yu and her husband once put aside the replacement plan.

Ms. Yu calculated the account of the “Daily Economic News” reporter: Since the couple had a loan record under the New Deal, the house with a total price of 7.1 million yuan is no longer a common house, so the second house pays 70%, which is 497. Ten thousand yuan; selling the purchase deed tax of more than 200,000 yuan, if the house bought is not "full five unique", as a buyer to bear part of the business tax. Therefore, replacement costs and capital pressures are quite high.

Yan Yuejin believes: "The current pressure on replacements is very high. First, the cost of taxes and fees for replacement, and the second is the proportion of down payment for new home purchases. Therefore, it also affects the transaction volume of second-hand houses.bankRelaxation of the loan policy will benefit market transactions. ”

Professor Xu Guoxiang, director of the Shanghai Center for Social Research and Research, and director of the Center for Applied Statistics of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, suggested that the relevant departments of local governments should implement the detailed investigation and research on the basis of resolutely implementing the relevant policies and policies of the central government on the real estate market. According to the actual situation in the region, such as the introduction of relevant policies to release effective demand, to solve the policy support problems in the process of replacement, and to prevent malicious speculation on the real estate market.

(Article source: Daily Economic News)

                (Editor: DF387)

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