The exchange rate of the RMB exchange rate narrowed, and the offshore RMB fell against the US dollar by about 200 points in the short-term. Previously, the onshore and offshore RMB against the US dollar both rose above the 6.74 mark.
In the past week, the RMB exchange rate has continued to strengthen and the appreciation has exceeded 1000 points. On Friday, the central parity of the yuan against the US dollar was raised by 251 points to 6.7909, the highest since July 26, 2018.
In addition, onshore renminbi against the US dollar at 16:30 closed at 6.7482, refreshing a new high in July last year, this week rose 1163 basis points, the largest weekly increase since the exchange rate reform in 2005, before the highest record for September 4, 2017 - The 1062 basis points increase recorded on the 8th.
According to the China Securities Journal, more and more people believe that the pressure of RMB depreciation will be significantly reduced in 2019, but the trend of appreciation may still be difficult to see, and the current rebound is still a repair-type rebound.
The possibility of the US dollar index ending up in 2019 is on the rise. Xie Yaxuan, China Merchants Securities, said that the strong dollar cycle that began in 2012 may end. There are four reasons for this: First, the economic fundamentals between Europe, the United States and Japan.currencyThe policy is divided into convergence; the second is that the competitive devaluation of Japan and the Eurozone pushes up the possibility of the US dollar index; the third is the reverse spillover effect of the RMB exchange rate fluctuation on the US dollar; Fourth, the Fed’s interest rate increase does not constitute the support of the US dollar index. factor.
Xie Yaxuan believes that with the end of the strong dollar cycle, emerging market currencies are expected to get rid of the pressure, the RMB exchange rate is expected to stabilize and rebound, and the international capital flowing to emerging economies is expected to gradually recover.
“The exchange rate trend will eventually return to the fundamentals.” Li Weijie, senior manager of foreign exchange operations of Zijin Mining Finance Co., also said that from the relative changes in growth expectations, the worst time for China’s economy is over, and the slowdown in US economic growth is also an indisputable fact. The fundamentals of the two countries have bottomed out and the summit has peaked. The time when the RMB depreciation pressure is the biggest has passed.
There are also market participants who believe that the economy needs to bottom out, and the basic support for the RMB exchange rate needs to be strengthened. In the short to medium term, it is difficult for the renminbi to show a decent appreciation.
It is worth mentioning that in recent days, there have been analyses on the trend of the US dollar in 2019 to investigate 75 foreign exchange strategists around the world. The survey results show that about two-thirds of respondents believe that the dollar's gains are basically over. However, the median survey shows that the best case for other major currencies against the US dollar in 2019 is to recover the lost land in 2018. The fall in the dollar in 2019 or the rise in other major currencies will be limited.
Point of view link
China Merchants Securities: RMB exchange rate is expected to stabilize and rebound
The depreciation pressure on the RMB exchange rate began in 2014, slightly later than the start of the current strong dollar. The current depreciation expectation and depreciation pressure of the RMB exchange rate are closely related to the strength of the US dollar. After all, this round of US dollar strength is comparable to the big round of the two rounds of strong US dollars in the 1980s and 1990s. It is expected that the US dollar index will fall back in 2019, and the RMB exchange rate may be lower and higher, and gradually stabilized and rebounded. The volatility of the RMB exchange rate will rise further, with 6.72 as the hub, fluctuating within the upper and lower 6% range.
Northeast Securities: January RMB depreciation pressure is not big
December 2018foreign exchange reservesThe rebound, mainly due to the rise in the price of foreign exchange assets,Cash flowThe pressure did not ease. Specifically, the valuation effect and foreign exchange assets have risen by nearly 40 billion yuan, while the external reserve assets actually increased by 11 billion yuan. The gap is not low, and the foreign exchange accounting rate is negative. It is expected that the exchange rate depreciation pressure will be small in January 2019, and the probability of breaking 7 is not large. December and January are both large months of foreign exchange losses. It is expected that the foreign exchange account will change to a negative value in January.
Tianfeng Securities: The dollar has a high probability of going down
Is the dollar going up or down? Need to grasp the key logic: the world cycle resonance down, the United States to other countries' cycle convergence. Fundamentally, the fundamentals of Europe are weak, and the fundamentals of the United States are still the supporting force of the US dollar. However, it is necessary to observe the convergence of the US cycle to the Eurozone. In terms of monetary policy, the US monetary policy is expected to adjust, and may eventually converge to the European Central Bank’s monetary policy. Path; in terms of liquidity, overseas dollar demand will fall. Thus, with the downturn of the US cycle, the dollar has a large probability of breaking down.
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