A shares rebounded today,Shanghai indexDeep fingering,GEMThe closing group rose slightly, and the GEM pointed to the end of the weekly K line. Specifically, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.74% to close at 2,553.83 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.61% to close at 7474.01 points; the ChiNext Index rose 0.20% to close at 1,261.56 points. The market turnover shrank, the total turnover of the two cities was 296.1 billion yuan, and the industry sector showed a general trend.New sharesRising up and down the tide.
For the market trend of the market outlook, institutions have expressed their views.
Guosen Securities believes that A shares will go out of W type in 2019. The valuation of A-shares will continue to decline over a period of time. As the period of the fastest decline in earnings has passed, the market will have a valuation base and then rebound. With the further decline in corporate profits, A-shares will have a bottom line of earnings expectations. Considering that the valuation has reached the bottom andinterest rateThe level is constantly moving downwards. It is expected that all listed companies will be listed in 2019.PerformanceThe growth rate will be between 8% and 10%, and the expected return on equity assets in 2019 is around 15%. The structure suggests focusing on three directions: one is the leading enterprise with high return on net assets and continuous stability, the second is the dominant enterprise for the 2B end of the public service, and the third is the technological frontier represented by 5G and artificial intelligence.
China Merchants Securities issued a document saying that the "new infrastructure" theme under the leadership of 5G, UHV and high-speed rail transit is likely to lead the spring market. On the one hand, the market has already had a fairly sufficient expectation of the widespread concern about the impairment of goodwill. Considering the timing of the announcement of the performance, the Spring Festival time and the current index position, the jiacang is also likely to be completed before the Spring Festival. On the other hand, From the perspective of catalysis, the recent project approval for the project of complementing the infrastructure has exceeded market expectations, and the 5G industry chain has officially entered the stage of redemption. The spring market is likely to be launched ahead of the “new infrastructure” theme.
Xinhua FundIt is believed that in 2019, A shares were dominated by structural stocks. The main factors affecting the stock price are the company's performance and no risk.interest rateAnd the risk premium has a downward trend, the structure is biased towards the reverse growth cycle industry, and the growth industry is expected to obtain excess returns in the context of economic and risk interest rate downside, judging the 2019 A-share deduction of financialNet profitIt will grow, and the current market valuation has reached the bottom area. With the overall performance down in 2019, the market valuation will be lower.
HSBC Jinxin judged that the market will end in 2019. The main logic is based on two points: First, the market has basic expectations for economic fundamentals; second, it is the valuation improvement driven by liquidity improvement. At present, the overall valuation indicators of the market are at the historical bottom. The stabilization of the credit cycle and the policy bottoming will help the risk appetite to rebound. The 2019 is the balance between the downside of earnings and the upward trend of valuation, which means that 2019 is a structured market. HSBC Jinxin said that it is optimistic about the following main lines: liquidity sensitive and government investment sectors, such as construction, new energy equipment; weak cycle or independent cycle sectors, such as cars, inflation sector; based on style optimistic about the growth sector.
In the view of Invesco Great Wall, in 2019, the stock market opportunity is greater than the risk, the allocation value has already appeared, and the quality growth style is dominant. In the past three years, the overall value of the market has dominated, mainly because various medium and long-term factors point to partial value styles. In terms of profitability in 2019, growth stocks may give priority to the bottom, and risks are released ahead of time. From the valuation point of view, the absolute valuation and relative valuation of growth stocks are adjusted sufficiently and have long-term allocation value. In 2019, relative performance, liquidity and supervision have all turned to a growth style, and the quality growth is more flexible. From the performance of the US stock market in the past, in the environment of low interest rate deleveraging, the performance of quality growth style is also better.
Golden Eagle FundRelatively optimistic, it believes that the structural opportunities in the equity market in 2019 are outstanding. From the perspective of valuation, home appliances, commercial retail, real estate, medicine, electricity, and media have a certain margin of safety. At the same time, in the process of economic downturn, policies continue to be loose, fiscal policy andcurrencyPolicies are more positive and clear, and policies do not lack the ability to grow steadily, but trending opportunities need to wait for a better time. In the next stage, you can configure stocks when the market is adjusted back.