"We expect that China's stock market should have a global leading performance this year." Recently, Morgan Stanley Chinamarketing strategyWang Wei, a division and vice president, expressed his optimism about China's stock market in 2019 when he was interviewed by a reporter from China News Service.
Wang Wei said that in early December 2018, Morgan Stanley had raised China's share of asset allocation in the global emerging stock market, and also upgraded its rating from more neutral holdings to more optimistic holdings.
She believes that whether it is the A-share market on the shore or the offshore market represented by the Hang Seng Index and the Alum China Index, China's overall stock market will outperform emerging markets in 2019, and emerging markets will outperform developed markets. Therefore, the performance of China's overall stock market in the new year will outperform the world.
What is the reason for optimistic about the Chinese stock market? Wang Wei pointed out that first of all, the valuation of the Alum China Index has fallen below the 10-year moving average and has broken through the valuation of emerging markets, but the overall composition of the Chinese stock market, especially the valuation of the overall market value of the offshore Chinese stock market. The relatively high proportion of the new economic sector is higher than that of the emerging stock market, and China's overall economic situation and financial system are still stable. Therefore, in 2019, the Chinese stock market has a good chance to return to a relatively high premium in the relatively emerging stock market.
Second, the easing of funding pressure will also help the Chinese stock market to strengthen. Wang Wei said that from the outside, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates twice in 2019, while the US dollar will weaken. Historically, the weakening of the US dollar and the suspension of interest rate hikes have generally improved the performance of emerging market stocks, which will enable investors to further explore in emerging markets. Opportunities, international funds will flow into emerging market stocks.
Especially for China, if the 20-year A-shares include the FTSE Russell Global Equity Index and the MSCI increase in the A-share factor, there will be tens of billions of dollars.Cash flowEnter A shares.
Internally, China’s top executives intensified their confidence in the market in the fourth quarter of last year, and some local governments also set upfundIn order to help private enterprises to overcome short-term financial difficulties, the market's confidence in business prospects will be restored to a certain extent, and liquidity will also improve with the increase in domestic investors' risk appetite and willingness to invest.
Third, the gradual release of the policy dividend will stabilize the needs of the corporate and family sectors. Wang Wei believes that the official policy formulation in 2019 will develop in a loose direction, especially the continued development of fiscal policy.
She judged that the manufacturing enterprise value-added tax will be reduced by 2 to 3 points, from the current 16% to 13% to 14%. The deduction of personal income tax has also been officially implemented. After the merger of the two, the policy of raising the personal income tax threshold has been implemented. It is expected thatGDPThe growth rate will have a pulling effect of 0.8 percentage points.
Wang Hao also expects government departments to lowerSocial securityRate. According to Morgan Stanley's calculation, if the overall social security contribution ratio is reduced from the current 30% to 25%, the overall profitability of the Alum China Index will generate an additional growth of up to 1.8 percentage points. At the same time, the amount of local government special bond issuance is expected to increase substantially, which also has a stimulating effect on infrastructure construction.
In addition, the company's earnings outlook is gradually approaching a reasonable range, and the gradual improvement of Sino-US trade prospects will all boost the Chinese stock market in 2019.
"Based on the current market trading point and our target price, China's stock market will have about 10 to 15% upside in 2019, which is a relatively stable increase." Wang Wei said that in 2019, the first relative The sectors benefiting will be relatively traditional. After the start of the second quarter, Morgan Stanley will gradually increase the allocation of new economic industries according to the market conditions.
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(Article source: China News Network)