In 2018, the A-share bear crown is global, and the stockholders are not in a good shape.BrokerAnd sure enough.
December's revenue is the highest in the whole year, but profits are not rising simultaneously
In addition to the newly listed Great Wall Securities and Tianfeng Securities in October, as of January 11, 34 listed A-share brokers have fully released the financial data for December 2018, and the quarterly interest of self-operated fixed-income investment and asset management business. The impact of revenue recognition, brokerages recorded the highest annual revenue in December.Net profitIt is also the third highest in the year;
Under the company's merger, DecemberOperating incomeA total of 28.739 billion yuan, a 91.38% increase in the chain; the total net profit of 7.049 billion yuan, a double-digit increase in November, an increase of 12.79%.
Data Sources:Oriental Fortune Choicedata
Note: The financial data disclosed by the listed securities company is the parent company and the domestic controlling securities subsidiary. The relevant data is the total value of the parent and subsidiary data, and it is not audited. It is not the consolidated statement data in the strict sense. The same below.
Based on the financial data from January to December of 2018, the listed brokers' total revenue for the year was 186.179 billion yuan, down 10.31% year-on-year. Among them, CITIC Securities still ranked first, with annual revenue of 20.796 billion yuan, down 3.10% year-on-year; Guotai Junan It ranked second with 19.493 billion yuan, down only 1.02% year-on-year;
In terms of net profit, securities companies achieved a total of 62.613 billion yuan, down 24.56% year-on-year. Among them, CITIC Securities ranked first with 8.52 billion yuan, down 6.27% year-on-year. Guotai Junan and Huatai Securities ranked second and third.
26 revenues are growing, and profit margins are weaker than November
From January to December of 2018, due to the continued decline in market conditions and the frequent occurrence of black swan,Brokerage performanceThe bleak anomaly; according to the first half of the year, the profit rate in the first half of the year is better than the second half;
In the first half of the year, listed brokers achieved a total revenue of 88.513 billion yuan, a net profit of 32.584 billion yuan, a profit margin of 36.81%, a revenue of 97.668 billion yuan in the second half of the year, a net profit of 30.029 billion yuan and a profit margin of 30.75%.
Data Sources:Eastern Fortune Choice Data
From the data of the past December, although the revenue has improved, the profit situation is still not optimistic. In terms of revenue, 26 of the 34 brokerage firms achieved positive growth from the previous quarter, and 10 of them grew by more than 100%, which is obviously better than November;
Among them, Dongxing Securities performed best, with revenue growth of 174.29%, Caitong Securities ranked second, with a growth of 172.34%, Huatai Securities ranked third, and revenue increased by 169.48%.
In addition, the revenue growth rate of more than 100% is also Guotai Junan, Guojin Securities, Soochow Securities, Northeast Securities, Tianfeng Securities, Southwest Securities and Great Wall Securities.
In terms of net profit, the performance in December was significantly weaker than that in November. In November, among the 34 brokers, 26 brokers achieved positive growth, while in December, only 15 achieved positive growth.
Among them, a total of 6 achieved a chain growth of more than 100%, Dongxing Securities ranked first with 299.67%, Huatai Securities second, with a growth of 224.91%, and the third was Shanxi Securities, an increase of 146.41%.
For the abovePerformanceThe reason for the divergence situation, CITIC Jiantou believes that the single-month revenue growth of brokerages mainly comes from the confirmation of quarterly interest income of self-operated fixed-income investment and asset management business; the differentiation of revenue and net profit growth mainly comes from large StockPledgeProvision for impairment losses.
2018, more than 90% of brokerage revenue and net profit double drop
Based on the overall situation in 2018, apart from the fact that Nanjing Securities, Tianfeng Securities and CITIC Jiantou, which were newly listed this year, did not disclose the full-year data, among the other brokers, regardless of revenue and net profit, only Shenwan Hongyuan and Founder Securities achieved positive growth year-on-year.
Source: Eastern WealthChoice data
Among them, Shen Wanhongyuan's revenue in 2018 increased by 8.48%, net profit increased by 17.11%; Founder Securities' revenue in 2018 increased by 8.33%, and net profit increased by 1.37%.
It is worth noting that Zhongyuan Securities and the Pacific suffered losses throughout the year in 2018, with losses of RMB 54 million and 923 million respectively, down 112.57% and 894.03% respectively from last year.
More than 90% of brokerages' revenues and net profits have fallen. The market generally believes that the biggest reason may be includingEquity pledgeCredit risk exposure within.
For example, Western Securities, which is well known for its equity pledge problem, announced in February and August 2018 that the provision for impairment was 439 million yuan and 187 million yuan respectively, and its net profit for the whole year of 2018 was only 3.35. Billion yuan, just as LeTV, has engulfed more than half of its net profit.
All the assets are being contributed, and the investment bank is all negatively growing.
In 2018, it was a difficult year for brokerages, and the new regulations and supporting rules were successively put on the scene. The industry faced reshuffle and external challenges. By the end of 2018, the scale of securities companies and their subsidiaries It is 13.4 trillion yuan (including private placement of securities company private placement subsidiaries)fund), compared with 16.8 trillion yuan at the end of 2017, it has shrunk by 20.24%.
Source: Eastern WealthChoicedata
Judging from the performance contribution of brokers, the 12 brokerage companies that announced the data all achieved profitability and contributed positively to the brokerage business.
Among them, Huatai Securities (Shanghai) achieved net profit of 1.126 billion yuan in 2018, ranking first in net profit. Guangfa Assets' annual net profit reached 778 million yuan, ranking second, and China Merchants Securities ranked third. , achieving a net profit of 587 million yuan;
In terms of structure, among the listed brokerage companies, only 4 of the net profit increased year-on-year, and 6 of the negative growth;
From the perspective of performance contribution, the equity management company of Orient Securities has a contribution to the parent company's profit of 75.07%, which is the main source of profit. The contribution of other subsidiaries to profits is below 20%.
Investment banking business, all down year-on-year, nearly half dragged down performance
In the case of passing the number of homes and passing rates, the performance of investment banks is also expected to be bleak.
Compared with 2017, the performance of brokerage investment bank subsidiaries in 2018 has declined year-on-year;
Among them, the most obvious decline was the investment bank of First Venture Securities, whose net profit fell 8544.56% year-on-year;
Source: Eastern Fortune Choice Data
In terms of performance contribution, 4 of the 7 brokerage investment bank subsidiaries contributed positively to the performance, and 3 were dragged down. It is worth noting that Sino-German Securities, Yixin Investment Bank, and Ruixin Founder, all of which recorded losses, all The annual losses are all above 30 million.
How do you look at the broker's 2019?
After the strong acquisition of CITIC Securities, after the acquisition of Guangzhou Securities, the market generally believes that in 2019, the Matthew effect of the brokerage industry will be more obvious, the head brokerage firm is stronger, and the days of small brokerages are bound to be more difficult.
Tianfeng Securities said that it is optimistic about the opportunities of the head brokers in the context of the expansion of the direct financing market and the capital market.
The improved liquidity of beta and the regulatory cycle switching alpha are expected to catalyze systemic opportunities in the securities sector. Securities sector beta market benefited fromcurrencyThe policy continues to be loose, and the improvement of the liquidity environment will help to improve the overall risk appetite of the market;
The regulatory cycle has been switched, and the brokerage sector has both alpha returns. Since the fourth quarter of 2018, strong regulatory policies have begun to relax, such as the loosening of stock index futures.MergerReorganizationnew rule,Stock repurchasePolicies, systemically important investment banks, etc., especially the expansion of the direct financing market and the capital market open the background of the science and technology board and derivatives, is the important thrust of the head brokers to enhance ROE.
China Merchants Securities continues to be optimistic about leading brokers:
The three-year administrative supervision cycle of the securities industry is being reversed to the market, and the function of the capital market is expected to be further improved. We judge that the follow-up will gradually see the three major aspects of the policy:
(1) Primary market,Mergers and acquisitionsThe policy returns to marketization, and the science and technology board is launched as an experimental field for market-oriented reform of the capital market;
(2) The secondary stock market reduces the intervention in the trading link, which helps to improve liquidity and form incremental funds;
(3) The derivatives market is forming a combination boxing, and the futures index is returning to normalization. The 300 index options are expected to be introduced during the year. The matching of off-market individual stock options will help to form a quantitative multi-strategy to attract quantitative funds and foreign investment.