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Xingzheng Strategy: This round of "Wangchun Quotes" will exceed market expectations

February 11, 2019 00:31
Author:Wang Delun
source: XYSTRATEGY

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Summary
We believe that as various policies such as wide credit are expected to enter the implementation stage, corporate capital pressures and downward pressure on the economy will ease, and the fundamentals may be better than investors' expectations. MSCI increased A's shareholding, the "two sessions" policy expected to ferment, risk appetite, and stock market liquidity continued to improve. Overall, the current "Wangchun market" will continue to exceed market expectations.

  Investment points

January monthly report "Layout Wangchun market", "Wangchun market" is booming on the 6th, "Policy warm wind boosts "Wangchun market"" on the 13th, "Wangchun market is on schedule" on January 20, On January 27th, "Wangchun market is booming." Since January 2019, the Shanghai Composite Index has successfully reached 2,600 points from 2,455 points. At the beginning of our industrial strategy in 2019, we took the lead in proposing optimistic A-shares and grasping the "Wangchun market".

After the Lunar New Year, how does the market interpret? We continue to maintain an optimistic and positive attitude in the overall judgment, enjoy the "Wangchun market", and configure "four big diamonds (large housing enterprises / largeBroker/ Big Innovation / Big Infrastructure) + Strategically focus on the home appliance and automotive sectors.

1. Global: During the Spring Festival, the US and Hong Kong markets increased slightly, and the European market was weakened by the impact of economic growth. Policy level, the world's major central bankscurrencyThere are signs of marginal easing in the policy: 1 India cut interest rates. 2 Major economies such as the United States, Britain and Australia have transmitted flexible and loose monetary policy signals. From the perspective of the global market, the overall external stability is stable, and the probability of A-share sentiment being suppressed is small, which is expected to increase the risk appetite of the A-share market. To further verify, we have a "global restructuring" perspective in the annual strategy "Reconstruction Innovation Age". It is not a simple foreign capital inflow, joining MSCI, but the re-allocation of global assets. It is the world's choice of funds in the country, the Chinese market is the most beneficial, and the allocation of developed markets and emerging markets.

2. Domestic aspects: goodwillPerformance"Ray" is suspended, economic earnings decline is expected to gradually respond, reform continues, four in one (government and enterprises, state-owned enterprises and private enterprises, supervision and market, market micro-subjects, etc.), "China restructuring" is happening, risk appetite, valuation Continue to improve. Nearly 20 relevant documents for the board of science and technology have been drafted, and the capital market reform has gone further. As a whole, the rules are closer to developed markets, information disclosure is more adequate, pricing is more market-oriented, and delisting systems are more stringent. For example: 1 In the shareholding structure, the same shares are allowed to have different rights, but they cannot be changed after listing, and the listing conditions of different shares are more strict. 2 In the ups and downs, the first five trading days do not set the price limit, and the other 20% limit. 3 In the listing price, the direct pricing is cancelled, and the market-based inquiry pricing method is adopted comprehensively. All the stocks are issued for inquiry and only the institutions participate. 5 The most stringent delisting system, no longer a single continuous loss indicator, but the use of two major categories of indicators, namely deductionNet profitNegative for negative and net assets. The delisting time is shortened to 2 years, and ST is not met in the first year. Finishing the financial data, as long as the evidence is confirmed to delist immediately.

Can "Wangchun Quotes" exceed market expectations? The next month is crucial. After the recent exchanges with the market, everyone is generally concerned about when the “Wangchun Quotes” will continue. Looking forward to the next month, various pending issues are critical to their sustainability. 1) In mid-February, financial data will be released in January. 2) On February 28th, MSCI raised the weight of A into equity in 2019. 3) On March 5th, the national "two sessions" on economic growth and reform measures. 4) Economic and financial data for the first two months of mid-March. We believe that as various policies such as wide credit are expected to enter the implementation stage, corporate capital pressures and downward pressure on the economy will ease, and the fundamentals may be better than investors' expectations. MSCI increased A's shareholding, the "two sessions" policy expected to ferment, risk appetite, and stock market liquidity continued to improve. Overall, the current "Wangchun market" will continue to exceed market expectations.

  risk warning:US capital market volatility exceeded expectations, economic decline exceeded expectations

(Article source: XYSTRATEGY)

                (Editor: DF142)

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