A shares today ushered in the first trading day after the Spring Festival holiday.
Looking back at the finals of the Wuxu Year, the market has a five-day continuous line, which has built a good trend for the New Year. At the same time, the Spring Festival holiday has been prosperous and frequent. On the fund side, foreign capital continued to surge in a large amount. During the long holiday period, the external disk trended smoothly, and the favorable accumulation of the disk made A shares expected to start in a warm mood.
Looking back on the last trading day before the Spring Festival holiday, the three major stock indexes of A shares are unilaterally rising.GEMIt is up 3.52%. Driven by the surge in the last trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index also achieved the five-day yang of the weekly K line. From the historical data, there is a wave of red envelopes in the probability of A shares after the Lunar New Year. The data shows that during the 19 years from 2000 to 2018, there were 15 rises in the five trading days after the Spring Festival, with a rising probability of 78.94% and an average increase of 1.57%.
During the Spring Festival, the external market trend was relatively stable. In the index with higher correlation with A-share operation, the US stock market Dow Jones index first rose and then fell again, and the Hong Kong stock Hang Seng Index opened lower and higher, all gaining certain gains during the A-share holiday.
Haitong Securities Chief MacroAnalystJiang Chao said that the current A-share valuation is at a historically low level and is also at a relatively low level in the world. With the gradual landing of larger tax reductions and fee reductions and the active release of financial risks, A-shares are expected to usher in the spring.
On the policy level, the Spring Festival holiday is promising.
On January 28, the China Insurance Regulatory Commission clearly stated that “encourage insurance funds to increase the shares of listed companies, broaden the investment scope of special products, and maintain the stability of the capital market”;
On January 30th, the science and technology board and registration system reform plan landed, and the A-share system design achieved a major breakthrough;
On January 31, the CSRC issued a heavy news: one is forQFIIRQFII integrates relevant supporting regulatory provisions, expands investment scope, and relaxes access conditions; secondly, it intends to implement counter-cyclical adjustment of securities company's risk control indicators, encourage securities companies to invest in equity; third is to cancelMargin financingThe current 130% mandatory liquidation line of the business is changed by the securities company and the customer to agree on the minimum maintenance guarantee ratio.
Huatai Securities pointed out that under the favorable effect, the "spring turmoil" in 2019 was earlier than in previous years. The China Merchants Securities Strategy Team said that with the warming of policies and liquidity, the market rebound is expected to continue.
The CITIC Securities Strategy Team also believes that the rebound in February is expected to continue due to improved risk appetite and liquidity.
It is also worth mentioning that foreign capital is continuing to invade with greater intensity.
The data shows that in January 2019, borrowed from ShanghaiDeep shareTotal Northbound fundsNet inflow60.688 billion yuan, a net monthly inflow of new highs since the establishment of the interconnection mechanism.
As of February 10, the total net inflow of Northbound funds since 2019 was 66.235 billion yuan. With the opening up of the capital market, the scale of foreign capital inflows to A shares is expected to continue to increase.
On February 28th, MSCI willannouncementWhether to increase the inclusion factor of China's large-cap A-shares from the original 5% to 20% of the final consultation results. In addition, the process of incorporating FTSE Russell into China A-shares and S&P Dow Jones to include some A-shares will also be launched during the year.
(Article source: Shanghai Securities News)