After the last round of complete regulation and control, the third- and fourth-tier cities have followed the first- and second-tier cities from the hot to the stable. The report of the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center shows that starting from the week before the Spring Festival, the pace of pushing the market has slowed down, and the overall transaction of the property market has fallen normally. Among them, returning home buyers have obviously cooled down, and buyers are more rational. From the perspective of localities, many governments have formulated and implemented housing development plans, adhered to local conditions and comprehensive measures, and stabilized prices and stability.House priceThe responsibility for steady expectations is implemented.
Some properties for holiday promotion
This is the third year that Fang Ping did not go home for the New Year. Fang Ping is a property consultant for a real estate in Nanjing. His real estate this year has not closed the door, but opened the holiday promotion, hoping to get more customers in the days of family reunion.
It is worth noting that the real estate that does not fight in the Spring Festival is not just the project where Fang Ping is located. Some media surveys show that some real estate projects are still open during the Spring Festival.
Zhongyuan Real Estate ChiefAnalystZhang Dawei said that the family has less time to meet, and the viewing of the house is still an important activity for the Chinese to celebrate the New Year.
With the deepening of regulation, the real estate market has become more rational. According to the data of Zhongyuan Real Estate, in the first month of 2019, the volume of transactions on behalf of the cities showed a callback.
Zhang Dawei said that during the Spring Festival, from the statistical data, the data of the first- and second-tier cities was basically suspended. Compared with the peak of the third- and fourth-tier cities returning to the hometown during the Spring Festival in 2018, most of the third- and fourth-tier cities have seen a wait-and-see and priceless market during the Spring Festival of 2019.
The “2018-2019 Return Home Investment Survey Report” released by the 58th City Joint 36氪 shows that 52.7% of the people working in big cities have the intention to return to their hometowns and neighboring cities, compared with 58.7% in 2018. In 2019, the proportion of people who returned to their homes was slightly lower.
Housing companies will focus on stocking
As the market stabilizes, the property market in many places is obviously replenished. Previously, Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute released the latest issue of “China 100 City Stock Report”. As of the end of December 2018, the total inventory of new commercial residential buildings in 100 cities monitored by Yiju Research Institute was 457.34 million square meters, a month-on-month increase. 2.1%, an increase of 1.6%.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the Yiju Research Center think tank, said that since January 2015, the national 100-city inventory scale has shown a continuous decline. Although there are rebounds in the middle months, the downward trend does not change. By 2018, the inventory trend basically showed the trend of “reduced in the first half of the year and increased in the second half”. In particular, the inventory scale increased significantly in September, and continued to grow in October-December.
According to the report, as of the end of December 2018, the total inventory of new commercial residential buildings in 100 cities in the first, second and third tiers was 29.11 million square meters, 23,261 square meters and 195.62 million square meters, respectively, a growth rate of 7.3%, 2.1. % and 1.4%, respectively, increased by 31.0%, -1.8% and 2.5%.
On a year-on-year basis, first-tier cities experienced a year-on-year positive growth trend in June 2018 after a 34-month decline in inventory for the first time in June, and continued to grow year-on-year in July-December; second-tier cities maintained a year-on-year decline for 42 consecutive months, but the decline was Narrowed. In the third-tier cities, after 38 consecutive months of year-on-year decline, there has been a two-month positive growth year.
Yan Yuejin said that in 2018, the inventory of the whole year fell first and then increased, and the ratio of stocks to sales also had a similar trend. The sales situation in the first half of 2018 is not bad, and the effect of destocking is also worthy of recognition. However, in the second half of the year, market transactions began to cool down, and the high inventory pressure of housing enterprises reappeared.
Yan Yuejin believes that relatively large residential stocks were formed in the fourth quarter of 2018, so in the first half of 2019, it is expected that housing companies will take inventory as an important task. If the capital pressure is high, then the relevant housing enterprises will still adopt a strategy of price-for-money, that is, the pricing will not be too strong.
Stable price stability, stable price expectations
At the end of 2018, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development held a national conference on housing and urban-rural construction. It pointed out that in 2019, the real estate market will aim at stabilizing prices and stabilizing housing prices, and promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Wang Menghui, Minister of Housing and Construction, said that real estate regulation and control insists that the house is used for housing, not for the purpose of speculation, and strives to establish and improve a long-term mechanism for the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, and resolutely prevent and mitigate the risks of the real estate market.
It is understood that the current structural contradiction between housing and land supply has not been effectively alleviated, and the housing leasing market is still short-term, and the housing problem of new citizens is still outstanding. In some hot cities, the prices of second-hand houses were upside down, and land prices were upside down. Supply and demand upside down has eased but has not been eliminated. The pressure on housing prices is still relatively high. There are also some cities that have recently increased the phenomenon of land flow, and market volatility and risk hazards cannot be ignored. There are still many chaos in the real estate market.
Hubei Housing and Urban-Rural Construction Work Conference pointed out that it will adhere to local conditions, comprehensive measures, long-short combination, treating both the symptoms and the root causes, implementing classified guidance, promoting the balance between supply and demand, and fulfilling the responsibility of stabilizing prices, stabilizing housing prices, and stabilizing expectations. The Jiangxi Housing and Urban Construction Work Conference pointed out that adjusting the housing supply structure, supporting the demand for reasonable self-occupation, resolutely curbing speculative real estate, continuing to crack down on violations of the interests of the masses, and managing the chaos in the real estate market; all localities will fulfill stable prices, stabilize housing prices, and stabilize Expected main responsibility, formulate housing development plans, propose specific control measures, and maintain the continuity of regulatory policies.
In Fujian, it will improve the long-term mechanism for promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, consolidate the main responsibility of the city, compile and implement the housing development plan, and earnestly stabilize the price, stabilize the house price, and stabilize the expectation. In Anhui, the housing market system and security system will be improved, and a long-term mechanism for building a stable and healthy development of the real estate market will be accelerated. In Henan, it will continue to implement the real estate market to regulate the main responsibility system of the city government, adhere to local conditions and comprehensive policies. Strengthen the two-way regulation of market supply and demand, resolutely curb speculative real estate, implement stable land prices, stabilize housing prices, and stabilize expected liabilities.
Zhang Dawei said that whether it is a first- and second-tier city or a third- and fourth-tier city, the stable housing prices are conducive to the establishment of a long-term regulation mechanism, thereby weakening the investment property of the real estate industry and realizing the positioning of “the house is used for living, not for speculation”. .
(Article source: Economic Reference)