Less than two months after the official "Brexit" of the British on March 29, it is still unknown whether the UK can "delete the EU". The British government is still working hard to bridge domestic differences and engage in active dialogue with the EU to try to avoid a non-agreement to leave the EU.
EU expects Britain to change its position
The UK's "Brexit" process has recently suffered a huge setback in the UK and the prospects are unclear. The lower house of the British Parliament vetoed the "Brexit" agreement between the British government and the European Union at the end of January. On January 29, it passed an amendment related to the "Brexit" agreement, requesting Prime Minister Teresa May to negotiate with the EU. The new programme replaces the content of the existing agreement on the Irish border issue. Teresa May said at the end of January that if the new agreement cannot be reached with the EU before February 13, the next day of the British Parliament will vote again on the "Brexit" process.
On the 7th, Teresa Mei went to Brussels, the capital of the European Union, to meet with European leaders. After meeting, European Commission President Juncker said that the EU will not renegotiate with the UK on the "Brexit" agreement, but is willing to revise the content of the future relationship between the two sides in the "Political Declaration of the Future Relations Framework".
According to sources, the European Union's Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier and the Brexit Minister Stephen Barkley will meet in France on the 11th. Teresa May and Juncker will also meet again at the end of February.
The EU has repeatedly reiterated that the terms “Brexit” including “backup arrangements” have been agreed and cannot be renegotiated; the only way to avoid launching “backup arrangements” is to adjust the red line in the UK.
Some analysts pointed out that if the British government wants to achieve "there is an agreement to leave the EU", there are not many options left. Some British media reported that in order to save the "Brexit" agreement between Britain and the EU, some officials of the British government began to "seriously" consider "de-Europe" and stay in the European Customs Union. This means that the Conservative Party compromises with the opposition Labor Party and the EU at the same time, and it is also the most likely road to compromise.
The Independent newspaper quoted British government sources as saying that some high-ranking British government officials are preparing for "serious" stay in the customs union after "Brexit". Some cabinet ministers are urging Prime Minister Teresa May to accept this option, which will win the support of more Labour MPs. The Labour Party has always asked the British to stay in the Customs Union after "Brexit".
British Business Secretary Greg Clarke also recently hinted that he may support staying in the customs union in order to "unify" the UK.
The report said that the EU has repeatedly proposed that if Mei no longer opposes the British "de-Europe" and continues to stay in the customs union, the European and British sides may soon reach a trade agreement, thus avoiding the initiation of "backup arrangements."
Mei has repeatedly ruled out this option on the grounds that the “suspected European factions” in the Conservative Party oppose the detention of customs unions and that this is abandoning the “Brexit” commitment, and the United Kingdom cannot independently reach a new trade agreement. However, some media reports said that some Conservative Party members may "get the light of the two evils" and support staying in the customs union.
In order to gain more time to achieve the agreement to leave the EU, the outside world believes that the possibility of the British government to postpone the Brexit date is also rising. The British "Daily Telegraph" reported on the 5th that the United Kingdom was originally scheduled to "Brexit" on March 29. Now, the British cabinet minister hopes that the EU will give a two-month "grace" after the expiration of the original "Brexit" date, from March 29 to May 24, in preparation for British Prime Minister Teresa? Mei’s “Brexit” agreement was approved by the parliament and all legislative procedures were completed.
"No agreement" worry is difficult to dissipate
Due to the leaks in cooperation with a shipping company, the British government has once again suffered embarrassment due to “Brexit”.
The British government confirmed on September 9 that it has terminated its business with the company’s sea freight company based in London, England.contractThe contract amount is 13.8 million pounds (about 120 million yuan). The maritime freight company was originally scheduled to take over the ferry service between the Port of Ramsgate and the Port of Ostend, Belgium, after the Brexit next month, transporting trucks, cars, trailers, trams and other vehicles to ease the UK. The pressure of this traditional route between Port of Foll and Port of Calais, France.
However, the media disclosed that the company has never engaged in related business. It was founded in 2017 and has neither a vessel nor a ferry business. According to the report, the words “ordering meals” appeared in the company introduction of the sea freight website, triggering people to speculate whether the words “copy” from the introduction of a food delivery company. The marine cargo has subsequently revised the company introduction.
This incident has received much attention from the UK and truly reflects the uneasiness of the British government and the public about the absence of an agreement to leave the EU. “No agreement to leave the EU” means that there is no transition period after “Brexit”. EU law will not apply to the UK immediately. The two sides will face the problem of increasing tariff levels and increasing trade barriers. According to the report, British trucks can now smoothly pass border inspections between EU member states; even after “no agreement to leave the EU”, even if each vehicle stays at the border checkpoint for a few minutes, it may lead to long queues on the banks of the English Channel. .
To avoid this, the British government signed a ferry contract with three shipping companies. The other two companies are the French “Bretagne Ferry” and the Danish DFDS. Both companies are well-known service providers in the industry.
Investment withdrawal trend continues
If the UK is out of order, the industries such as automobiles and finances are expected to be greatly adversely affected. The British business community, represented by these industries, is increasingly anxious.
The direct employees of the UK's automotive industry are 186,000.RevenueThe annual direct contribution is £20.2 billion. According to data released recently by the British Automobile Manufacturers and Dealers Association, due to the uncertainty of “Brexit”, the investment in the UK auto industry plunged 46.5% in 2017 compared to 2017, only 5.886 billion pounds (1 pound is about 1.3) US dollars); vehicle production fell to 1.52 million units, down 9.1% year-on-year, the lowest in five years. The association's CEO, Mike Hors, said the UK must maintain economic and political stability to protect the future growth of the auto industry and mutually beneficial trade relations.
Due to concerns about the impact of the UK's departure from the European Union, since the referendum in the United Kingdom in June 2016, the British business community has been considering more and more companies to transfer their business overseas. At present, British companies are particularly worried that if the UK eventually “no agreement to leave the EU”, British companies may not be able to withstand various uncertainties and chaos.
The British "Guardian" quoted the British Institute of Directors survey data that 29% of British companies decided to transfer some of their business overseas, thinking that this will help alleviate the negative impact of "Brexit." Among them, most companies have turned their attention to the member states of the European Union and intend to transfer some of their business in the UK to other EU countries.
The Dutch government confirmed on the 9th that the Dutch government's 2018 investment project attracted 42 companies and their branches to transfer their business from the UK to the Netherlands, involving 1923 jobs. At present, more than 250 companies are discussing with the Netherlands to transfer their business from the UK to the Netherlands. Most of these companies are British companies, and some US and Asian companies are rethinking the European branch.
(Article source: Economic Reference)