Less than two months after the deadline for the Brexit, the German media quoted a new report from the country’s authoritative research institute, the Halle Leibniz Institute for Economic Research (IWH), saying it was called “hard Brexit”. If the UK does not agree to "Brexit", if it finally becomes a reality, more than 100,000 jobs in Germany will be threatened.
March 29 this year will be the deadline for the UK to "Brexit". British Prime Minister Teresa Mayer traveled to Brussels to seek re-negotiations with the EU on the "Brexit" agreement, but was rejected by the EU.
Germany and the United Kingdom have a lot of trade, and the German economic community has been paying close attention to the British "Brexit" process. On Sunday, Germany’s “Sunday Le Monde” disclosed in advance the main content of a report entitled “The potential impact of ‘hard Brexit’ on the international job market” by economists at the Halle Leibniz Institute for Economic Research.
The authors of the report, Hans-Ulrich Brouch and Oliver Holtmol, discovered this by simulating the “hard Brexit” scenario (ie, the UK exited the EU without being able to stay within the EU Customs Union). The “Brexit” implementation, which was implemented without the compromise agreement between the two sides, will undoubtedly affect the German job market. Other researchers have pointed out that "no agreement to leave the EU" can cause the UK to reduce imports from the EU countries by 25%.
The report specifically pointed out that the damage caused by the "hard Brexit" trade between the UK and Germany will directly or indirectly affect the employment of more than 100,000 people in Germany. Among them, GermanyAutomobile industryThe impact (including the automobile sales industry) is most obvious. According to the report, about 15,000 jobs in the German automotive industry are directly or indirectly dependent on exports to the UK, which accounts for nearly 1% of the total number of jobs in the industry.
Geographically, the employment groups in Dingolfing-Landau, where the German Motor City, Volkswagen headquarters are located in Wolfsburg and the BMW plant, are expected to be most affected by the “hard Brexit”.
The report also estimates the likely impact of other countries around the world. It is estimated that “hard Brexit” will affect 612,000 jobs outside the UK, of which about 50,000 jobs in France are expected to be affected, the number of which is second only to Germany.
Oliver Holtmore pointed out that Germany, as a core economic power of the European Union and a major exporter of the world, is also the largest among countries in terms of Britain's "Brexit". "In any other country, the overall employment is not affected. Compared with Germany".
(Article source: China News Network)