During the Spring Festival, the three major stock indexes of US stocks continued their gains in January, and overall they showed a slight upward trend. But analysts believe that because of the signs of slowing global economic growth, the current trend is more emotionally driven rather than benefiting from improved economic fundamentals, so it can only be considered a rebound. It is too early to determine whether the long-term trend of the market has changed. The Fed’s rate hike may also slow down.
US stocks continued their gains last week, boosted by the unexpected increase in non-farm payrolls data in January and the “doves” signal released by the Fed. As of last Friday, the S&P 500 index rose 0.05%, the Dow rose 0.17%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.47%. On Friday, the three major stock indexes rose between 0.07% and 0.25%.
According to data released by the US Department of Labor earlier this month, the number of non-agricultural jobs in the country increased by 304,000 in January, the largest increase since February 2018. In addition, the Fed released the “Dove” signal at the policy meeting held in late January, and policymakers chose to maintaininterest rateIt remains unchanged and says it will be patient on the issue of further interest rate hikes.
Since the beginning of this year, the three major stock indexes of the US stock market have all increased by more than 7%. Although the increase is not small, market participants believe that the current stock market rebound is more driven by emotions, rather than benefiting from the improvement of economic fundamentals. It is currently determined that the long-term trend of the market has changed. It is still too early.
"We are still in the 'bear market,' which is a rebound inside the 'bear market.'"fundDavid Tys, founder and fund manager of Prudent Bear Funds, said that the stock market has rebounded recently, but this year the global economy will have a high probability of recession, and US stocks may fall by 10% to 30%. Wall Street should not be due to the recent stock market rebound. Too confident.
According to FactSet's data, as the US earnings season tends to end, corporate earnings in the first quarter of 2019 are expected to shrink by more than 1%. Wall StreetAnalystThe company’s earnings forecast for the quarter is being significantly reduced, and the overall expectation for corporate profit growth has even turned negative.
"The deterioration of corporate earnings has even exceeded our expectations." Wilson said in a report, "The profit forecast for the past month has been revised down more than our expectations. We believe that the US earnings recession will be low. It will come after the end of the first quarter and will be deeper than expected."
MRB Partners' strategist also wrote in a report, "The continued rise in the stock market depends largely on upcoming economic and earnings data, whether global trade tensions are eased and whether the bond market can remain calm."
After raising interest rates four times in 2018, the Fed’s rate hike this year is still unknown, and the market is expected to slow down its rate hike.
According to the summary of the economic forecast released by the Federal Reserve, the agency will raise interest rates twice in 2019. But for the first time this yearcurrencyAt the policy meeting, the position of the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Powell, has changed. The information obtained by the market seems to beinterest rateThe normalization process is basically complete and the next interest rate adjustment time is uncertain.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen even said in an interview on the 6th that if the global economic growth slows down and begins to affect the United States, the Fed may have to cut interest rates. Senior Wall Street traders, UBS's Alte Cassin and investment company Guggenheim's chief investment officer, Scott Maynard, believe that the Fed will likely have to cut interest rates.
(Article source: Shanghai Securities News)