In the fourth stage of “weak data and loose policies”, there are two ideas for the layout of industry excess returns:One is weak data, which means that the industry's growth rate is weakly related to the economic cycle. The defense sector still has configuration value, such as liquor, aquaculture, Chinese medicine production and other consumer staples, as well as gold; the other is policy loose,currencyLoose policyinterest rateDownstream,BrokerversusbankWill benefit, and from the perspective of economic stimulus policies, real estate, infrastructure, passenger cars, and white electricity are commonly used policy stimulus tools. In the fourth phase of history, real estate and passenger cars performed better, but in the second half of the financial cycle, the reconstruction cycle meantreal estateThe stimulus is weakened and it is recommended to give more attention to the infrastructure and optional consumer sectors. Finally, tax cuts and fee reductions are also important broad fiscal policy points. In the downturn, the reduction of value-added tax is more conducive to consumer goods. Therefore, the liquor and white electricity market at the beginning of the year is in line with the configuration logic of the fourth stage.
After the Spring Festival, the market risk recovery is continued, and the style is slightly smaller than the small and medium. The general pessimism in the stage of “weak data and tight policy” and the expected difference between the “data weak, policy loose” stage have been the core factors supporting the blue-chip white horse market in January. In the fourth phase of the “policy-economic” cycle in 2019, the continued weakening economic growth data induced continued policy easing, and the valuation of risk assets will continue to be restored. Small and medium-sized in FebruaryPerformanceAfter the release of the notice, the short-term factors that suppress the risk appetite of small and medium-sized enterprises have been alleviated. The market's general pessimistic expectation of goodwill impairment may instead be the repair of risk appetite after the small and medium-sized badwill impairment. We propose to continue to use the fourth stage of the dominant industry as the bottom position configuration, while at the same time moderately increase the configuration of small and medium-sized.
In addition, the full-year valuation of the repair market under the main line, can not give up on the fundamentals (molecular) concerns.On the one hand, there is still a large downward pressure on the macro economy in 2019. The high base and weak retail data of the 19H1 consumer industries at the meso level should not be ignored. In the process of the numerator and denominator's seesaw races throughout the year, the valuation of the repair market will not be completed overnight. If the fundamentals fall more than expected, it will still bring corrections to the stock price and valuation. On the other hand, for the sector or segment industry leader with clear growth logic in the medium and long term, if the clear fundamentals are expected to bottom out during the 19H1 pressure period, it may be the right side signal.
risk warning:The domestic economic growth rate exceeded expectations and had a negative impact on the performance of listed companies; the rising cost of raw materials had an impact on the profits of listed companies; the competitive landscape of some industries experienced rapid deterioration.
(Article Source:Everbright Securities)