The generalized liquidity mitigation triggers the generalized “spring turmoil” to be market-proven
On January 6th, “Global Risk-on, A-share Spring Initiation” clearly puts forward “2+1” factors to drive the spring spurs: 1) global liquidity inflection point marginal easing; 2) China credit expansion expected marginal improvement; Short endinterest rateThe next step (options). At the same time, it is pointed out that the market is mainly driven by the risk preference repair driver (DDM denominator) at home and abroad. The performance of global asset prices since January has confirmed the core driving force of “risk-on”.
During the Spring Festival, the risk assets were relatively flat compared to January, and the Fed’s further doves have basically price-in
In January, major assets performed on the bulk of the stock> stocks> bonds, emerging stock markets outperformed developed stock markets, emerging marketscurrencyThe rebound in the US dollar was weak, while during the Spring Festival, bonds > stocks > bulk, developed stock markets outperformed emerging stock markets, and the dollar strengthened. Unlike the sharp rebound in risk assets in January, the relative performance of risk assets during the Spring Festival was flat, indicating that liquidity tightening has further eased the basic price-in.
The “Spring Instigation” best yield risk has passed the stage, but the market support has not been destroyed.
The global Risk-On factor has been mostly Price-In, the VIX index has fallen from the stage high of 36.2 to 15.7 below the mean since 2009 (18.5), and the global liquidity turning point easing has been expected to be quite price-in in asset price performance. The best yield risk of this round of “spring turmoil” has passed. But the Fed’s expression of monetary policy is even more dovish.bankThe perpetual debt CBS further consolidates the expectation of “wide credit” and the main logic supporting the market has not been destroyed. Follow-up observations of major events affecting risk appetite (British Brexit, etc.) and China's credit expansion.
The GEM of the GEM is expected to be weaker than the same period of last year. The GEM is also expected to continue to rebound after the thunder.
GEM overall annual report noticePerformanceThe growth rate dropped sharply to -54.6%, but 93.2% (69/74) of the GEM companies that reported impairment of goodwill on January 31 ushered in a rise on February 1, and 81.1% received a relatively large excess return. At the beginning of the year, the two figures were 9.5% and 23.8% respectively. Differences in market performance suggest that investors apparently made more full expectations before the thunder, compared to similar scenarios a year ago. Although the impairment of goodwill affects the current profit and loss, it will cause a large increase in the valuation of the GEM. However, the impairment of goodwill is not a recurring profit or loss. The stage of uncertainty will help the rebound of the GEM.
Continue to move forward in the spring, stir the bumps, pay attention to the supply and demand of "wide credit"
Although the best earnings risk has passed, the Fed further raises its dominance. The Bank of England cut its economic expectations, which means that the probability of a rate hike is slowing down, the Bank of India cut interest rates, and the support of global liquidity tightening is not damaged. The general market continued, followed by various major risk events and changes in China's credit expansion volume data. The industry configuration focuses on the supply and demand of domestic wide credit: finance, (new) infrastructure - 5G, UHV, nuclear power, steel. The theme investment focuses on regional coordination (Xiong, Xinjiang, Yangtze River Delta integration).
Spring instigation gradually entered the "bumping period", it is recommended to pay attention to (new) infrastructure
Recently, the global Risk-On factor has been mostly fulfilled. Next week, the GEM goodwill impairment forecast will also curb the market, especially the growth stock risk appetite; however, the central bank set up the bank's perpetual debt CBS, China's credit expansion is still marginal improvement. Industry configuration recommendations focus on partial stocks + flexible configurationfundThe (new) infrastructure of "low allocation" and "wide credit" potential power: 5G, UHV, nuclear power, steel. The theme investment focuses on regional coordination (Xiong, Xinjiang, Yangtze River Delta integration).
Core assumption risk:The downward pressure on the economy exceeded expectations and the annual report was lower than expected.
(Article source: Dai Kang's strategic world)