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Institutional market: Shanghai stock index breaks through important lifeline Who is the main investment line after opening the door?

February 11, 2019 15:12
source: Eastern Fortune Network

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Summary
We believe that the opportunity in the market in 2019 will continue the three steps of “oversold rebound – valuation restoration – valuation revaluation”, and the growth is determined, the stock price is oversold, and the industry is in line with the national strategic direction. Clear investment lines, especially “the industry is in line with the national strategic orientation”.

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  Huaxun Investment: Who is the main investment line after the opening?

The first trading day after the Spring Festival holiday rebounded sharply, and the stocks showed a general trend, and the trading volume was also enlarged compared with the pre-holiday. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2653.90 points, up 1.37%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 7919.05 points, up 3.06%.GEMIt closed at 1316.10 points, up 3.53%.

The reason why the market has a good start is that there are several reasons: First, in accordance with China's practice, the two national conferences will be held in March, and the large-scale tax reduction and fee reduction policy will be introduced in the future, which will alleviate investors' concerns about the macro economy; A series of negative factors affecting the market are gradually being eliminated. For example, the goodwill mines that dragged down small and medium-sized stocks in January basically came to an end.Equity pledgeRisk reduction, new "Margin financingThe implementation of the Trading Rules will be put up in the near future, etc., which has stimulated a large-scale rebound in the previous oversold stocks.

As far as the market in February is concerned, today's opening does not mean that the next market will be smooth. The factors affecting the market in the near future are mainly the macroeconomic operation. January China's manufacturing industry announced from the Spring FestivalPMIIt is only 49.5%, which is lower than the glory line for 2 consecutive months, and 22 provinces and cities that have already opened the local "two sessions" in 2019 have 22 provinces and cities down.GDPThe growth target was reduced by 0.4 percentage points on average in the 30 provinces. The maximum reduction was 1.5 percentage points, and more than 10 provinces adjusted the target growth rate to around 6%. All of these indicate that the weak cycle characteristics of the macro economy may continue for a long time. We have also analyzed that the game of weak cyclical economy and policy regulation throughout the year 2019 will run throughout the year, which will test the confidence of investors. .

ThereforeWe believe that the opportunity in the market in 2019 will continue the three steps of “oversold rebound – valuation restoration – valuation revaluation”, and the growth is determined, the stock price is oversold, and the industry is in line with the national strategic direction. Clear investment lines, especially “the industry is in line with the national strategic orientation”.We believe that the major industries characterized by “new technology infrastructure” will gain greater support and inclination in the future, both in terms of industry policies and funding. Therefore, for the secondary market, looking for individual stocks in the new technology infrastructure has become the first choice for investors. We recommend focusing on 5G, artificial intelligence, industrial Internet, and big data center industries as underlying facilities, especially big data centers and the “artificial intelligence” industry collectively studied by the Politburo in October 2018, which will have the best chance to replicate in 2014. The trend of technology financial stocks.

  Xiangcai Securities:Shanghai indexBreak through an important lifeline in a year

Today, the two stock indexes are horizontally consolidated after the regular opening. After 10:00, they continue to rise to the noon closing; the stock index continues to climb in the afternoon; the hot spot: agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, communication, IT equipment, wine making, components, software services, pork, millet concept, 5G concept, apple concept, sapphire, timeNew sharesThe performance of the sector is strong; in general: today's market is unilaterally rising.

Investors familiar with Xiangbo Securities Fanbo know that after July 2018, we will give a bearish attitude towards the market as a whole, and then the market trend is basically consistent with our judgment. However, on the last day of the 2011 Lunar New Year, we said for the first time that the Shanghai Stock Index may have a breakthrough.

To briefly review, on the last trading day before the festival (February 1st), we clearly stated in the blog post that “The Shanghai Stock Index is facing a major trend change interval”: After January 21, the Shanghai Composite Index walked out of the horizontal axis with 2600 points as the central axis. The structure of the finishing, if the resistance is worn away at this position, does not rule out the formation of a breakthrough rebound, after the holiday focus on the choice of direction.

Today is the first trading day after the year, the market to take up the rising inertia before the holiday, continue to go out of the unilateral general market, the Shanghai index broke through 2620 strong resistance, for such a trend, Tiantan's view is very clear: rebound The level has improved, but the state of the bear market has not changed completely. The short-term operation can be, but it must avoid the varieties that have surged in the previous period.

To sum up one sentence: Shanghai stock index breaks the downward trend since the adjustment of 3587 points on January 29, 2018, but this does not mean that the market has started a bull market, because the time is not enough, the operation is mainly short-term, but remember not to chase high .

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                (Editor: DF078)

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