First, the market view may be biased
The broader market index opened the door, and the return of funds before the holiday was relatively clear. As the market confidence is not firm, it is expected that after a short-term rebound, there may be short-term profit-taking pressure to choose to leave. However, from a short-term perspective, there may still be some bargain-hunting of the short-selling funds, or there may still be support for the market.
The willingness to participate in funds before the holiday is not strong. Only the heavyweights have institutional funds to intervene and support the index. After the holiday, as we expected, the wait-and-see funds began to flow back and the sentiment of the long-term sentiment began to be honored. Looking back at the pre-holiday market, the rise of heavyweights was mainly driven by the involvement of foreign capital and other institutions. The decline of non-weight stocks was largely due to the panic and slumping of emotional sentiment due to the significant impairment of goodwill. From the perspective of behavioral analysis, the goodwill impairment expectation of most stocks has actually been reflected in the stock price adjustment in the past year. Therefore, the impact of pre-holiday impairment on the emotional side should be overreacting.
There are no obvious changes in the current economic fundamentals, valuations have already reflected poor economic expectations, and policies have been released in advance. Therefore, the near-term long-term bottom of the index around 2500 points is a high probability event. For the market, the rebound is mainly based on the scale of interventions in which the stock can be multi-funded, and the willingness to lock the positions of the positions. From the current situation, before the funds are fully returned to a certain threshold, the funds return to the intervention or will continue, and support the market. On the other hand, the funds of the medium and long-term institutions that entered the market in the early stage were involved in the vicinity of 2700 points. Therefore, this means that the institutional funds are short-term or there is still not too strong profit-taking intention.
On the whole, we believe that the current market is in a technical oversold rebound stage. In the short-term, the game is involved in the game of capital stocks, and it can still be properly followed after the disk is retraced. However, in the medium term, it is subject to the confirmation of the overall improvement of the capital ecology. It is expected that the game will be dominated by short-term opportunities in the short-term, while the inter-band opportunities will continue in the medium term.
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(Article source: Guangzhou Bandung)