On the first trading day of the Year of the Pig (February 11), the liquor sector continued its strong year. Kweichow Moutai (600519) rose more than 4.71%. It stood at 700 yuan shortly after the opening, and closed at 725.3 yuan, the highest since 2019. The latest closing price of Moutai was over 700 yuan, which was last September.
In addition to the rise of Maotai, today's liquor plate Gujing tribute wine, Luzhou Laojiao rose nearly 7%, Wuliangye rose 5.75%; *ST Huangtai, Yanghe shares and other six wine companies rose more than 4%.
Liquor ushered in the Year of the Pig, which is a continuation of the festival.PerformanceThe general pre-up is also due to the booming sales during the Spring Festival. At present, the statistics show that during the Spring Festival holiday, the sales of food and beverage online, liquor and catering are better than the same period last year, and some Maowuyi dealers also sell Maotai, Wuliangye and Guojiao during the Spring Festival. Performance is optimistic.
Pacific Securities pointed out that from the situation of the supermarket over the Spring Festival, the Niulanshan Erguotou really swept. Judging from the consumption of residents in various places, the products of Wuliangye, Yanghe, Gujing and other brands are becoming more and more popular, and the concentration of liquor is accelerating.
Chinese New Year liquor sales are in line with expectations
In the past Spring Festival, liquor consumption continued to flourish. Huachuang Securities during the Spring FestivalResearchIt is found that, in general, the low-line city commercial super-channel display is dominated by low-end and mid-end brands, and high-end famous wines are less profitable, and high-end brands in some regions perform well.
The first-tier cities take Shenzhen as an example. The price of 52-degree Puwu is 1088 to 1099 yuan. Some merchants have bought two bottles and reduced 240 yuan. Beijing area, Wuliangye 1618 price of 999 yuan, discount 40 yuan, Guojiao 1573 price of 868 yuan, discount 50 yuan, Dream Blue M6 price of 831 yuan, discount 80 yuan. In the case of third- and fourth-tier cities, most of them are displayed in the middle and low-end wines, and there are not many high-end wine merchants.
High-end liquor looks at Maotai. During the Spring Festival of Tianfeng Securities, it was found that the price of Feitian Maotai in East China was around 1780 yuan, from 1800 to 1820 yuan in South China, 1790 yuan in Southwest China, and the terminal price was between 1800 and 2200 yuan. During the Spring Festival, market demand is strong, and Maotai is generally out of stock. Jiangxi, Shandong, Anhui, Jiangsu, Chongqing and other dealers have reported scarcity of supply. Some terminals in Nanjing, Huainan and Chongqing are out of stock, and some stores in Chongqing have implemented purchase restrictions. Anhui dealers said that at the end of the year, Maotai's supply was tight, and it was difficult to get the goods. The price rose, but it showed a downward trend after the year.
In terms of performance, Guizhou Moutai's 2018 performance forecast shows that last year's total operating income was about 75 billion yuan, an increase of about 23% year-on-year;Net profitAbout 34 billion yuan, an increase of about 25%. Tianfeng Securities pointed out that in 2018, the production of Moutai wines was 49,700 tons. In the future, the amount of Moutai wines will have a large room for improvement, laying a foundation for long-term performance growth. In 2019, the sales plan was 31,000 tons, which was an increase of 0.3 million tons compared with the planned amount in 2018. More increments were used to broaden the new direct sales channels and increase high value-added products, which was conducive to a stable price system.
During the Spring Festival, in addition to Maotai has been in a state of tight supply and demand, Wuliangye pre-sales sales of some dealers expected, the price remained stable, the sales volume of the country increased steadily, the price gradually increased after the suspension. Anxin Securities research pointed out that the average price of Wuliangyeyan Hotel in the Spring Festival interval is around 850 yuan, and some terminals can see 830 yuan supply. In the Spring Festival, Wuliangye was more prosperous, and the manufacturers shipped a large amount of Chinese New Year. At present, the terminal has inventory, and the terminal has not seen the out of stock. The production date of Xi'an, Changsha, Xuzhou and other places is from August 2018 to January 2019, indicating the benignity of the channel ecological chain.
Wuliangye 2018 annual performance forecast shows that revenue in 2018 is expected to increase by 31.93% to 33.25% over the same period of the previous year, and net profit will increase by 37.39% to 39.73%. The change in performance was mainly due to the increase in the volume and price of the company's liquor products, which led to a significant increase in business performance.
At the same time, the competition for sub-high-end liquor has intensified, and the promotion intensity has increased significantly compared with previous years. Yanghe, Jinshiyuan, Jiugui and other brands have increased terminal support and consumer discount policies during the Spring Festival. The mid-range wine consumption upgrade continued, the brand concentration accelerated, Gujinggong, Mouth and other high-priced products performed more brilliantly, the product structure upgrade trend did not change, and demand accelerated to the brand concentration.
Advance inflow of funds in advance
In the secondary market, optimistic about the sales of white wine in the Spring Festival, the funds have already continued to flow in before the festival.
The data shows that Shenwan liquor industry as of the five trading days of February 11Main forcefundsNet inflow1,263 million yuan, ranking second in the 227 industries of Shenwan III, second only to the banking sector. From the stocks, Wuliangye's main capital inflow of 857 million yuan in the same period, ranking first; Luzhou Laojiao net inflow of 252 million yuan followed; Gujing Gongjiu and this world's net inflow of 196 million yuan and 60.04 million yuan respectively.
The performance of liquor companies continued to grow last year. 73 companies in Shenwan's 110 food and beverage companies announced performance forecasts. Overall, there were 46 net profit in 2018, accounting for 60%. From the perspective of the performance forecasting company, the net profit in 2018 increased by 61.99% year-on-year, and the liquor business increased by 38.38%.
Specifically, Golden Seed Wine is expected to have a net profit growth of over 1268% last year, ranking first, and the net profit growth of the company and the old white dry wine reached 150% and 113% respectively. The net profit of Shanxi Liquor in 2018 is pre-increased by 50% to 60%, mainly due to the continuous optimization of dealer structure and regional layout, and the proportion of high-end products has increased. Judging from the reasons for pre-increasing, many liquor companies' performance growth drivers are derived from the continuous improvement of the main business operations, indicating that the industry has a high degree of prosperity.
The agency expects that the high-end and second-end high-end liquor in 2019 will maintain a stable growth pattern with a high probability, and the industry's prosperity will remain high. At present, the channel shipments during the Spring Festival season are in line with expectations, and the liquor sector will benefit from the peak season demand and ease.Cash flowInto, the valuation is gradually restored after the bottom, and the value of the midline layout is highlighted. However, the market still needs to pay attention to factors such as the off-season, the trend of liquor price changes and the digestibility of channel inventory.
(Article source: Securities Times Network)