The year is in spring, and the new year always gives people new hopes and hopes. On the last trading day before the Spring Festival, the A-shares that continued to slump ended in the Dayang line, with Shanghai and Shenzhen showing 1.3% and 2.7% respectively, while the GEM was up 3.52%. The rare Changyang sweeps the market that has been shrouded in the haze for a long time.
The first trading day of the Year of the Pig continued the rise of the last trading day of the Year of the Dog and ushered in a good start. As of the close of the 11th,Shanghai indexIt closed at 2653.90 points, up 1.36%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 7919.05 points, up 3.06%; the GEM closed at 1316.10 points, up 3.53%.
During the Spring Festival, many WeChat groups are discussing the stock market, and believe that a sunny spring is crucial to the Chinese stock market, both at the policy level and the inherent requirements of the market itself.
The value of A shares appears in abundance, and foreign capital quietly "buy and buy"
The capital market has experienced a continuous decline since June 2015. The popularity of the market and the market have been largely dissipated. There is no wealth effect for a long time, and the stock market's support for activating domestic demand is becoming weaker. Especially in the past year, the A-share market experienced trade frictions, breaking the redemption,PerformanceBlack Swan event, credit thunder,Equity pledgeThe round of black swan incidents such as the impairment of goodwill and thunder, the risk was released centrally, and the price of a large number of individual stocks was at a historical low. After the risk is fully exposed, the market enters a relatively safe low valuation range. Can China’s stock market, the “immortal bird”, come to the forefront of the phoenix’s hopeful spring in the most difficult and dark moments? It is waiting for the joint efforts of all parties.
The continuous decline of the market and the continuous explosion of thunder have made the confidence of all parties in the market really hit hard. In the past 2018, a slightly leveraged private equity large-scale short-selling liquidation disappeared as a public offering of major institutional investors.fundIt also lost its helmet and abandoned A. The number of A shares held by the beginning of the year dropped sharply from 57.2 billion shares to 52.4 billion shares. The proportion of the market capitalization of A shares has dropped from the previous high of 27.93% to the current 4.17%. This is a very embarrassing situation. At the same time, the previous northbound funds continued to eat, and last year they lost more than 100 billion.
Still, northbound funds last yearNet inflowA shares are still close to 300 billion yuan, the highest amount in the calendar year, indicating that the value of A shares has appeared. Nine of the top 10 institutions in the global asset management scale have entered China. Some people say that in 2018, the A-share market is like a drum washing machine. At the same time, A-shares included the MSCI index and the Russell Index, while foreign-invested institutions quietly entered the market and deployed the A-share market in a big way. Domestic institutional investors are still afraid, and foreign capital has begun to bravely “buy and buy”, and the contrast between the two is strong, forming a stark contrast. Whether this fulfills Buffett’s famous saying, “I fear when others are greedy, and I am greedy when others are afraid.” The current performance of different styles of A-share investors seems to test Soros’ famous “reflexivity principle”.
The United States also saved the city
From a recent policy perspective, the understanding of the importance of China's stock market seems to be experiencing a profound historical awakening. The capital market is an important part of the modern financial system and an important domestic policy tool. Like the banking system and the exchange rate market, it is the coordination center of economic operations of big countries.
The more developed the market economy, the more important the importance of the capital market. Over the past 200 years, Wall Street has provided a steady stream of capital for the American industrial revolution, which has enabled the United States to achieve unprecedented prosperity and make the 20th century a true American century. Wall Street is known as Main Street because it has become an integral part of the US economy. Wall Street itself has become the center of the global financial system with the development of the US economy.
Recently, we have seen an interesting phenomenon. The US government has frequently closed its doors, and its duration has kept setting records. The president is not CARE. But the stock market fell, but the president was nervous. On December 27 last year, the US stock market, which had risen strongly, took a nap and suddenly fell sharply. The three major stock indexes fell by nearly 3%, and the US version of the "Bailout Command" immediately shot. The official name of the agency is called the Presidents Working Group on Financial Markets. On Wall Street, it has a more direct name: the Plunge Protection Team.
The Financial Markets Working Group was established in 1988 by the then US President Ronald Reagan. In October 1987, US stocks encountered Black Monday, and Reagan created the team to find an emergency mechanism to make the financial market run smoothly. The Financial Markets Working Group is chaired by the Minister of Finance, and includes the heads of the Federal Reserve Board, the US Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
After the "abnormal fluctuations" around Christmas last year, US Treasury Secretary Mnutin issued a statement saying that he immediately called the six major US banks to understand the situation and confirmed that there is no problem with the current market liquidity. He also said that a conference call will be held immediately with the US Financial Markets Working Group to discuss coordination measures to ensure the normal operation of the market. In addition, the US President Trump, who is "scratching" every day, also promptly shouted for continued rebound. He said: "We have the world's greatest companies, they are doing really well, and all kinds of business data have reached record levels. So I think that the perfect time to buy now is really very Good buying opportunities.” Immediate market violence rose. When the market fell near the close, the instant buying exceeded the selling price by 10 times, and the three major stock indexes quickly turned red.
Drawing on the experience of the United States and Japan
After nearly three decades of development, we deeply understand that the capital market is an elemental market that is as important as the labor market, resource market, and technology market. It is the most basic and powerful source of power in the real economy. Over the past two hundred years, Wall Street has both successful experiences and lessons from bloody hurricanes. The road they have walked through reveals that the capital market is very important, and it takes a whole body to move. Efforts to bring the capital market up is of great importance to the current China's economic transformation and domestic demand growth strategy.
Needless to say, in the past 20 years, China’s capital market has gone through a rugged and bumpy road. It is difficult for ordinary investors to have a wealth effect in the capital market. In recent years, dozens of trillions of wealth dissipated have made consumption dominated. The implementation of the national transformation strategy is hard to come by.
China’s second largest economy in the world, stock market capitalization andGDPThe ratio is extremely disproportionate, and the negative effects of the abnormal development of China's capital market on the overall economic and social situation are increasingly prominent. At the moment, we should cherish the hard-won consensus, rebuild the confidence of the market, make great efforts to improve the capital market, and establish a sense of gains that match the size and quality of the big countries and allow investors to enjoy the wealth effect. The healthy Chinese capital market.
Over the past year or so, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the National Financial Work Conference and the two Central Economic Work Conferences have made clear plans for the reform and development of the capital market. The healthy development of the capital market plays an increasingly important role in the construction of the country's overall security system and the prevention and resolution of major risks.
Since October last year, the decision-making level has faced the market dilemma and launched a series of emergency rescue mechanisms. For the first time at the Central Economic Work Conference, the important discussion of the capital market was taken. Policies and consensus are forming cumulative effects. On the last two trading days before the Spring Festival, the CSRC has simplified the problems that are currently plaguing the market, grasped the main contradictions, and actively sought to break through the whole system.
Two major actions are encouragedBrokerEntering the market to buy stocks, and at the same time canceling the unified control of the two "closing positions". Before the long vacation, the weak market is prone to the risk of a push. These two big moves were introduced, because they identified the breakthrough, reflected the outstanding problems of the current market, responded to the core concerns of the market, and received the effect of getting twice the result with half the effort. For the current market lacking liquidity and dissipating popularity, it is a charity in the snow. Act of.
When the market is difficult, learn from Japan and the United States to save the market experience, through the establishment of the Chinese version of the "rescue headquarters" or "financial market working group", organize multi-channel compliance funds to establish a leveling fund, inject liquidity into the market and Confidence, let the wealth effect stay more in the country, this issue should be put on the agenda.
I always believe that as long as it is conducive to risk mitigation and financial market stability, it is conducive to the development of the real economy, conducive to the recovery of investor confidence, and the courage to break the old bondage, all stock market policies that are conducive to the positive capital market can be tried. This is also an important grip for us to solve many problems in a complex internal and external environment.
(The author is a researcher and professor of Changjiang Institute of Economics and Management, Nanjing University)
(Article source: First Finance)