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Six major conjectures of the A-share ecological upheaval in the first year of Kechuang board

February 11, 2019 20:08
source: Securities Market Red Weekly

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A week before the Spring Festival holiday, the board of directors' opinion draft was released, and the listing and trading rules were unprecedentedly innovated. At the time of the publication of the consultation draft, many investors have been busy buying new year's goods and returning home for the New Year. The management has “overtime and overtime” to launch the opinion draft. It is obvious that the board has been highly valued. The science and technology board has become an A share that affects 2019.Cash flowInvestors, and even the important factors of the A-share ecological upheaval in the next few years, deserve the attention of investors. The author believes that after the board is on the road, the impact on A shares will be reflected in the following six aspects:

First, around "high-tech, high research and development, high growth"MergerIt will be another craze. “Kechuang Board”, as its name implies, is aimed at a new sector with high-tech enterprises listed on the market. This is also the key to China's economic transformation and upgrading and quality improvement. Its goal is not only to set up new investment targets in the capital market, but also to open up the real economy. Channels, providing more source water. At the beginning of the news of the science and technology board last year, it was hoped that the shareholding investment concept of the company's listed company would gain a wave of speculation, which was regarded as the “pre-dish” before the launch of the science and technology board, and with the implementation of the rules and regulations. The first batch of listed companies have appeared in the market, and the market is expected to set off a new round of "treasure hunt" process, paying more attention to the company's scientific and technological content, research and development investment, etc. Some listed companies are expected to enhance by acquiring potential enterprises. Its own "science and technology content." Due to the cross-industry and high-value acquisitions in the past few years, the depreciation of goodwill has been frequent this year. Therefore, in the face of possible future “technical M&A fever”, investors should give priority to the high-tech content of their main business and the ability to acquire assets. A stock that has a complementary relationship with the company's main business, rather than simply pursuing the pure concept of the popular conceptthemeHype.

Second, a large number of poor stocks and theme stocks will face diversion of funds and maintain a low-level shock in the long run. The establishment of the science and technology board has increased the supply of the market, and will undoubtedly form a certain degree of capital diversion effect, and the first one is the large number ofPerformanceSupported poor performance stocks and theme stocks. Since the last year, the A-share market has been “exploding”. It has both the debt problems caused by the break of the capital chain and the “great thunder” of goodwill impairment and asset impairment. It has exposed the growth of a considerable number of A-share companies in the past few years. Above the mirage of the acquisition. Although there is no possibility of taking the initiative to carry out a "financial shower" when the market is weak, many investors have been discouraged from such acquisitions. In addition, these companies have expanded their share capital after a huge increase in the past few years. In the future, relying on a new round of acquisitions will make the stock price more brilliant than ever, and it will face huge amounts of money.Restricted sharesUnblock the requirements for listing cash. Therefore, most of the poor stocks and theme stocks that have already “exploded” will gradually become marginalized, and the low shock will become a long-term trend. Even if there is an index bull market in the future, they will hardly recover to the high of the 2015 bull market. point.

Third, the white horse stocks are especially highDividendHigh dividend stocks are expected to emerge from the long-term rising slow cattle pattern. Compared with the impact of the divisional effect of the science and technology board on the performance of the poor stocks, the white horse stocks with real performance support and reasonable valuation will not be greatly affected. Instead, the funds with lower risk preference will pursue higher certainty. Increase the allocation of white horse stocks, making it easier for funds to be concentrated in this category. However, last year, many white horse stocks with outstanding performances also broke out. The losses of high-selling investors were no less than those of the poor stocks. Therefore, for the companies with outstanding performance, the market will be more demanding. The way to check. For the blue-chip stocks that can continue to give high dividends in real money, the market will pay more attention and is expected to become the mainstay of the future stock index out of the slow-moving market.

Fourth, the industry's internal valuation system has changed, leading companies are expected to enjoy higher valuations. In the past, the valuation of A-shares in the same industry was often “small and beautiful”. Companies with low market capitalization, tradable shares and total equity were often highly valued in the industry. After the science and technology board, the market pays more attention to the long-term competitiveness of the company, and will even become the criterion for the valuation. The leading enterprises in the industry are expected to enjoy the “valuation premium”. In the case that the poor performance stocks may have a small profit, this “valuation premium” may not be measured by the price-earnings ratio alone, and may be reflected in multiple indicators such as the price-to-book ratio or the market-to-sales ratio and the market rate. In the trend, the leading companies in the industry are expected to have a stronger trend, and the long-term "strong and strong" will replace the "fengshui turn" to become the mainstream of the market.

5. The average valuation of A-shares is more rational, and the valuation gap between the bull and bear markets is expected to converge further. From the content of the draft for comment, the combination of the science and technology board and the registration system makes it easier for companies with high-tech content to go public, but the punishment for fraudulent acts against financial fraud is also more stringent; at the same time, there is no ups and downs on the 5th day before the listing. Since then, the daily 20% ups and downs mechanism is also more flexible than the current A-share trading mechanism, and the volatility of the stock price is also greater. It can be foreseen that after the hot speculation at the beginning of the listing, the high-tech stocks represented by Science and Technology Board will inevitably be divided. In particular, after the risk of delisting increases, investors' assessment of listed companies will be cautious. This is especially true for institutional investors with large capital, which will also keep the valuation of A-shares at a low level, and the valuation gap between the bull and bear markets will also converge. Take Shanghai A-shares as an example. The average price-earnings ratio of more than 10 years ago fluctuated within a wide range of 20-70 times, and remained 10-20 times after 2013. It is expected that this range will become the main range of market valuation fluctuations (see attached ). In the central position of this interval, that is, the Shanghai A-shares have a 15 times average P/E ratio and participate in the big index.ETFfund, buy in batches orFixed investmentThe layout, gradually sold out of the market at 18 times the price-earnings ratio, is expected to become a convenient way for investors to "high throw and low suck" to obtain profits.

6. Public funds replaced direct investment stocks and became the first choice for small and medium investors to participate in A shares. Whether it is a blue-chip stock or a growth stock, the future differentiation is inevitable. The difference in the rhythm of individual stocks will also increase. The uncertainty of retail investors' direct investment in stocks will also increase, and “making the index without making money” will become the norm. Therefore, public funds are expected to become the most important channel for retail investors to participate in A shares. In addition to traditional active managementEquity fundIn addition, the ETFs that track the index are expected to be popular, and some enhanced funds that have gained more relative to the index, as well as quantitative funds with their own unique returns, are also expected to emerge and become more popular among investors.

The concentration of funds to enterprises with long-term competitiveness and concentration to investors with professional management capabilities will be the direction of the A-share ecological upheaval after the “first year of the science and technology board”. Not only the establishment of the science and technology board, the deepening of the A-share opening to the outside world, the reform of the trading system, etc., will strengthen this process. Only by adapting to this historical process will investors not fall on the eve of the stock index bull market and be ruthlessly eliminated by the market.

(Article source: Securities Market Red Weekly)

                (Editor: DF506)

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