Everything has a harbinger.
On March 13, the FBMACE plunged 4.49%, losing 1700 points.
Behind this, the decline of Wen’s shares (300498.SZ) and technology stocks is dragging down.GEMThe reason for the drastic adjustment.
Prior to this, the two GEM leadersETFIt was frequently redeemed, and the total net redemption amount reached tens of billions during the year. The action of funds leaving the field seems to convey a certain signal.
GEM ETF became a redeemed "hardest hit"
The GEM ETF has been repeatedly screened since the news of the obvious redemption.
On March 13, the Huaneng GEM 50 ETF, one of the leading ETFs, was redeemed for another 489 million copies, and the latest share dropped to 14.298 billion. At the end of last year, its share was 20.195 billion, compared with less than three months.fundThe share decreased by 6.698 billion shares, shrinking by more than 30%. If the average transaction price is 0.5125 yuan, the amount of funds flowing out of the Huaan GEM 50 ETF will be 3.432 billion yuan.
Another GEM leader ETF, the E Fund's GEM ETF, is equally bad. As of March 13, the latest share of the E Fund's GEM ETF was 11.731 billion, a decrease of 3.769 billion from the 15.5 billion at the end of last year, and the shrinkage ratio was 24.32%. Based on the average transaction price of 1.3938 yuan, the funds flowing out of the fund this year reached 5.253 billion yuan.
In total, the two leading ETFs have received a total of 10.467 billion net redemptions this year, with an outflow of 8.865 billion yuan.
In addition, in the GEM ETF, the Jianxin GEM ETF, the Harvest GEM ETF and the ICBC Credit Suisse GEM were all redeemed by millions in the year.
Behind the massive redemption, profit-taking is the most fundamental reason.
On March 13, an ETF fund manager in South China pointed out to reporters that "the growth of the GEM ETF is mainly in the second half of last year. In particular, many funds were purchased in the fourth quarter of last year. At that time, it was basically in the market stage. At the bottom, after experiencing the rise of dozens of points this year, profit-taking is a matter of course. And recently, market volatility has intensified, and the demand for bagging is also stronger."
Judging from the scale change of Hua'an GEM 50 ETF and E Fund's GEM last year, the scale of the second half of the year has indeed grown rapidly. In the fourth quarter of last year alone, the share of these two funds increased by 6.053 billion and 2.734 billion respectively. This year, the two fundsPerformanceThe gains were 34.86% and 35.51%, respectively, which was equivalent to the 35.45% increase in the GEM.
The agency said the GEM is still attractive
Does the GEM ETF encounter a large-scale redemption signal that the funds are not optimistic about the market outlook?
For the above questions, some respondents indicated that they cannot easily use this as a criterion for judging the market outlook.
On March 13, an ETF fund manager in Shanghai analyzed the 21st Century Business Herald and said, “The large amount of redemption of the GEM ETF does indicate that some funds believe that the risk of the GEM is rising in the short term, but I think the short-term redemption More should be regarded as a normal trading behavior, and it cannot be judged by the funds to bearish the GEM. Of course, if the short-term redemption is intensified, the volatility of the GEM may also rise."
Another fund manager interviewed also believes that "the previous round of funds lurking into the GEM has collectively profit-taking, which may mean that the round of the GEM will enter the fishtail stage, but it does not mean that the GEM will not have a next step. The opportunity for the rise of the market, the factors affecting the market are multifaceted and cannot be judged simply."
On March 13, the GEM plunged. A noteworthy sign is that the E Fund’s ETF received 286 million net purchases. This “reverse operation” in the redemption tide also indicates that the GEM is still attractive to some funds. .
Cai Zhiwei, the manager of Rongtong GEM Index Fund, expressed his optimistic attitude towards the GEM.
According to its analysis, the analysis of the GEM refers to the loss of individual stocks, and the impairment of goodwill is the main cause, while operating losses and large-scaleLong-term equityFactors such as investment impairment have contributed to a sharp decline in performance in 2018. Although the impairment of goodwill and operating losses are bad in themselves, from the perspective of investment, the market has fully predicted the goodwill of the GEM, and the concern about the impairment of goodwill has also been in the process of falling stock prices in 2018. Fully reflected that historical debts continue to clear, the bottom of the GEM may have emerged.
From the perspective of incremental funds, on March 1st, MSCI announced that it will include 27 stocks on the GEM for the first time. The relevant stocks are all constituents of the GEM, and overseas funds will accelerate the allocation of GEM leading enterprises. At the same time with the amount of JanuaryCreditRelease, widecurrencyThe conversion to wide credit is being made, and the market liquidity turning point has already appeared, and the growth stocks will benefit significantly.
Judging from the heavyweights of the GEM, the proportion of farm stocks is relatively high, the beneficiary pig cycle is reversed, and the continuous fermentation of African piglets, the current pig price may rise more than expected, leading aquaculture companies may benefit.
From the perspective of the market, the current round of the market has reached the annual line, the transaction volume reached trillion, and the market sentiment has been effectively activated. If the investor judges that the follow-up is a bull market, the GEM with high Beta attribute has a higher configuration value.
Cai Zhiwei said, "Overall, the GEM index has been relatively low, but it is still relatively low. The bubble is fully cleared, and the profit turning point has made the GEM index currently or still have a high attractiveness. From the point of view, continue to insistFixed investmentAppropriately increase the frequency of fixed investment and set a reasonable target for profit taking. I believe that the dawn of the GEM has already begun. ”
(Article source: 21st Century Business Herald)