Since 2019, the A-share market has started.Convertible bondThe issue will heat up.
The first quarter has not yet ended, and the issuance of A-share convertible bonds is close to 2018.
At the same time, the size of the convertible bonds to be issued exceeded 400 billion.
The convertible bond market is booming and institutions are running into the market.
However, some institutions believe that, given the rapid increase in convertible bonds at the beginning of the year, the current price/performance ratio of convertible bonds has begun to decrease, and it should be rational, with due regard to the absolute price being low.ConversionA coupon with a low premium rate.
In addition, behind the offline subscription, the “multi-account” subscription chaos is still frequent, and some convertible bonds have begun to impose restrictions on institutional offline subscriptions.Hit newIt is expected to be standardized.
Since 2019, the issuance of the convertible bond market has been gradually accelerated. A total of 22 convertible bonds have been issued, raising funds of 107.3 billion yuan, almost the same size as last year.
"Not in the various strategies for participating in convertible bonds, it is on the way to the convertible bond strategy." On March 13, Liu Pinyu, head of a medium-sized private placement in South China, told the 21st Century Business Herald.
In the beginning of the year, with the A-share market booming, the convertible bonds also followed suit quickly, and the CSI convertible bond index rose from 277.82 points at the beginning of the year to a maximum of 331.51 points, an increase of 20%.
According to statistics, since 2019, the issue of convertible bonds has been accelerated. In less than three months, a total of 22 convertible bonds have been issued, raising funds of 107.3 billion yuan, and the amount of convertible bonds to be issued has exceeded 400 billion. Convertible bonds have become one of the most “rich” financing channels.
The winning rate is constantly refreshing low
Convertible bonds became a "sweet" overnight. On the evening of March 11, the Bank of Jiangsu releasedannouncementIt said that it will publicly issue 20 billion A-share convertible corporate bonds, and the convertible bonds issued this time will be referred to as “Su Yin Convertible Bonds”. According to the arrangement, March 13th is the original A shares.shareholderOn the first day of the subscription date, the institutional investors will make offline purchases; on March 14th, online subscriptions will be initiated and the original A-share shareholders will be subscribed first.
It is understood that Suyin convertible bonds are the first single-term convertible bonds of listed banks and the third single convertible bonds of listed banks this year. According to the terms and conditions, the Sue Convertible Bonds will be convertible from the first trading day after the expiration of six months after the date of the issuance.
Although Suyin convertible bonds have not yet been listed, but with reference to the trend of Pingyin convertible bonds, it has already risen by 20% in the hearts of investors. "The new convertible bond has becomeNew sharesEven more expensive than the new stocks, as long as the winning package does not lose, but now the speculation is too hot, the winning rate is getting lower and lower. Liu Pinhao said.
Liu Pinzhao’s statement, through data, can be proved that on the evening of March 4, CITIC Bank’s 40 billion yuan A-share convertible bond online and offline subscription work ended, and the 40 billion yuan issue scale set the highest A-share since 2011. And the total effective subscription under the net is as high as 56.96 trillion yuan, and the effective subscription multiple is as high as 5,497 times, which is the most popular purchase record in the A-share convertible bond market. At the same time, the online winning rate is only 0.0182%.
Also on the evening of March 4, Wanda Information released the convertible bonds (Wanxin to 2) in the winning situation, Wanxin to 2 online winning rate was only 0.0171%, less than two ten thousandth, refreshed nearly a year to convert bonds The new winning rate is at a new low.
March 13th, Qianhai Open SourcefundYang Delong, the managing director and chief economist, said in an interview with the 21st Century Business Herald: "The hot money of convertible bonds is reasonable. The issuance of convertible bonds is directly linked to the market, and the stock market is better. The debt will naturally become more popular, and the issuance will be even hotter. Since the beginning of this year, the market of the A-share market has started, especially after breaking through 3,000 points, the market sentiment has been ignited, and the issuance of convertible bonds has warmed up. It is said that when the market is good, the convertible bonds are issued, and the pressure on the enterprises is easier to lift. The convertible bonds can be said to be a good financing option for enterprises."
The convertible bond market turned better, and various institutions were running into the market. Guosen Securities said that as of February 2019, the fund held convertible bonds had a market value of 23.18 billion, an increase of 1.6 billion from January.BrokerThe market value of self-operated convertible bonds was 6.46 billion, an increase of 560 million compared with January. Among them, the fund is the biggest force to increase the holding of convertible bonds. Since the beginning of the year, it has increased its shareholding in the Shanghai Stock Exchange by 3.1 billion yuan. Secondly, it is the brokerage asset management, with an accumulated increase of 1.18 billion. The brokerage self-operated cumulative increase of 850 million, annuity,QFIIAccumulated increase of 830 million, 380 million, the remaining types of investors (including insurance,Social securitySpecial accountFinancial managementAnd so on) will reduce some of the convertible bonds. From the perspective of holding market capitalization, the market value of fund-holding convertible bonds is 20.1%, which is 2.2 percentage points higher than that in December 2018. The market value of securities companies with convertible bonds is 7.5%, up 0.8 percentage points. The market value of securities companies' self-operated convertible bonds was 5.6%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points.
Basic elimination of "poverty"
Due to the strong performance of convertible bonds, individual convertible bonds have triggered a strong redemption clause. At the beginning of March, Sany Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. stated that the closing price of its company's shares for 15 consecutive trading days from February 1, 2019 to February 28, 2019 was not less than 130% of the current conversion price of the Sany Convertible Bonds, according to relevant agreements. , the redemption clause of the convertible bond has been triggered. The company decided to exercise the early redemption right of the convertible bonds and redeem all the 31st convertible bonds registered on the “redemption registration day”. The Sany Convertible Bonds also became the first convertible bond to trigger a strong redemption this year.
"More than 31 convertible debts, then Dongcai, Kangtai, Changshu, Shenglu, Zhouming, Jingwang have entered the countdown stage of forcible redemption, and it is expected to trigger forcible redemption. After the listed companies release the strong redemption plan, the market often Worried about the selling pressure on the stocks after the conversion, we believe that the main focus is on the impact of the two aspects. The length of the first implementation redemption period, if given a longer time (such as more than 2 weeks), investors will have more abundant Time-to-equity conversion, the selling pressure on the positive stock will also be eased; after the second conversion, the dilution ratio of the positive stock, if the dilution ratio is not large (such as less than 5%), the effect on the positive stock after the conversion More limited." Guotai Junan fixedAnalystXiao Pei said on March 3.
According to statistics, the scale of convertible bond issuance has climbed for two consecutive years. With the issuance of Su Yin convertible bonds, the funds raised by the entire market convertible bonds will exceed 100 billion yuan. Since 2019, the issuance of the convertible bond market has been gradually accelerated. A total of 22 convertible bonds have been issued, raising funds of 107.3 billion yuan, almost the same size as last year.
In addition to the convertible bonds that have been issued, the current size of the pending is not to be underestimated. According to statistics, since 2017, a total of 281 convertible bonds have been issued, with a total scale of 466.41 billion yuan. Among them, 27 convertible bonds approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission include Asia Pacific Pharmaceuticals, involving a total of 84.635 billion yuan. The largest convertible bond is the Bank of Communications, reaching 60 billion yuan.
The market has skyrocketed, and convertible bonds have basically eliminated “poverty”. The latest closing price is still below 100 yuan, only 6 are left, and they are all above 95 yuan. The highest price is special convertible bonds. The closing price is 185.5 yuan.
With the interpretation of the market, the divergence of the value of convertible bond investment is also growing, although most analysts believe that the current market sentiment is better, the market can continue to advance, and the price of convertible bonds will rise. However, some analysts said: At present, the price of convertible bonds has skyrocketed, and the price of 15 convertible bonds has exceeded 130 yuan. Northeastern Securities Li Yong believes that the current debt protection has gradually weakened. The value of convertible bonds is now more supported by the value of the stock. The previous investment logic relied on low valuations. However, the current stocks have skyrocketed, and the logic may have been quietly changing. Under the background of rising debts and rising valuations, the difficulty of investment is increasing.
(Article source: 21st Century Business Herald)