The fiery heat of the stock market directly infectedConvertible bondmarket.
In the primary marketHit newAt the same time of the heat, most convertible bonds are being favored by market funds. According to statistics, as of March 13, the CSI Convertible Bonds (000832.SZ) index has risen by 16.12%.
Statistics from 21st Century Business Herald found that as of March 13, more than 80% of the 123 convertible bonds listed had already had a premium, and 11 of them had exceeded 50%.
In the eyes of the industry, in the case of most of the convertible bonds, there should be more attention to the absolute price andConversionThe convertible bonds with a lower premium rate, and in the current market where the long and short game is more intense, the allocation of such short-term debts can also play a defensive effect to a certain extent.
Super 80% premium
Along with the round of A-share growth, the convertible bonds also ushered in a strong market. Many public fundraisers that have converted convertible bonds at the end of last year have also benefited.
“In the middle of last year, one of our hybrid products was equipped with a lot of financial convertible bonds. The logic at the time was that the credit risk was relatively small first, and if the market rebounded, it would not miss this opportunity.” March 13, Beijing The chairman of a small and medium-sized public fundraising agency told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that “the final proof of product retracement is relatively small, and in this round of rebound, it also gained revenue.”
Despite this, the market has pushed up the price of the underlying stocks, and there are still many convertible bonds at a significant premium.
After the 123 convertible bonds of the 21st Century Business Herald, the number of convertible bonds was 101, accounting for 82.11% of the total. Among them, the premium rate of 11 convertible bonds such as Huifeng Convertible Bonds, Hongtao Convertible Bonds and Molded Convertible Bonds has exceeded 50%, and the Huifeng Convertible Bond premium rate is the highest, reaching 156.35%.
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter found that the above-mentioned convertible bonds with a higher conversion premium rate have the characteristics of being issued at a high market level. For example, the issue time of Huifeng Convertible Bonds was April 2016, while the Hongtao Convertible Bond with a premium rate of 150.67% was issued in July 2016, and the top 20 convertible bonds issued at the premium rate were at the end of June 2018. Previously, the A-share index had not fallen significantly.
“The market valuation in 2016 is still at a high level. At that time, the conversion price was too high. If the conversion price is not revised, these convertible bonds will still be at a high premium.”BrokerStrategyAnalystSaid, "But the value of most ultra-high premium convertible bonds has been clearly biased towards debt, so it is not meaningful to see the conversion premium rate."
Different from the organization logic of convertible bonds at the beginning of the year, the current convertible bond investment has certain defensive value for the institution.
“The market has been extremely extreme in the past two months, so if it is better to adjust to this market, but many stocks are rising very fast, there is no chance.” On March 13, a brokerage investment manager in Shenzhen said, “ Therefore, the undervalued convertible bonds have a certain defensive value in the moment."
In fact, the adjustment of the index seems to have arrived. On the 13th, the GEM fell by 4.49%, the largest single-day decline.
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter learned that the exchange of the holdings of the underlying stocks to the issued short-term debts has indeed become the choice of some private equity institutions in the market.
“We hold some stocks of convertible bonds, but considering that some of them have already been valued, we are currently switching to the convertible bonds of these stocks.” On the 13th, a private equity investment manager in Shanghai said, “ The logic of the switch is that there is a certain discount rate for these convertible bonds. If the market adjusts, the retracement can be smaller."
According to the statistics of 21st Century Business Herald, there are a total of 21 convertible bonds, and there are discounts on the value of convertible bonds. Among them, special convertible bonds, Zhongcun convertible bonds, Shangrong convertible bonds and Jiadu convertible bonds have not less than 7 convertible discount rates. Both exceeded 5%; the special conversion bond discount rate reached 21.27%.
"Double low" or still have value
In the eyes of the industry, although a lot of convertible bonds have a large premium, some convertible bonds with lower absolute prices and lower premium rates are still worthy of attention.
Guojin SecuritiesZhou Yue, an analyst at the Total Research Center, believes that due to the rapid increase at the beginning of the year, the current price/performance ratio of convertible bonds has been reduced. Therefore, it is recommended to pay attention to the current “double low” convertible bonds.
"We sort out the current convertible bonds with price levels above 125 yuan. It can be seen that the current conversion premium rate of such convertible bonds is relatively low and the stocks are strong; the yield to maturity is low, and the bonds are low. The bottom protection is weak. Its subsequent price trend is more dependent on the performance of the underlying stock. Once the positive stocks have a correction, the rise of such high-priced convertible bonds is unsustainable.” On March 13, Zhou Yue said. “Therefore, we recommend not to chase after the blind, and beware of the risk of price corrections and cautious participation.”
Zhou Yue pointed out that "it is appropriate to pay attention to the 'double low' convertible bonds. That is, the absolute price is at a low level (below 120 yuan), the transfer premium rate is not high (within 15%), andStock baseThis is a good quality coupon. ”
In its view, it is also an ideal choice if you have the opportunity to get convertible chips at a lower price.
"In the case of the absolute price of the secondary market is at a high level, it is also a good choice to be able to get new chips in the primary market." Zhou Yue said, "The new cost is higher. But the new one is playing. The risk point is that the winning rate is low and it is difficult to get the amount. We think that for those more optimistic targets, the right to steal can be considered appropriately if the position allows."
InTianfeng SecuritiesAccording to analyst Sun Binbin, small and medium-sized convertible bonds may have sustained value.
"From the success rate, it can be seen that the funds participating in the conversion of the market are accelerating into the market, including the equity funds that have not yet entered the market and a large amount of pure debt funds." "However, the CSI convertible bonds rose by 14.24% this year. 5G, brokerage, electronics,bankThe hot sectors are among the top gainers, and the protection of such convertible bonds is weakened. Some of the underlying investment prices are even lower than their underlying stocks. "On March 13, Sun Binbin pointed out. "At this stage, high-priced convertible bonds replace low-cost convertible bonds or high-quality choices, and can focus on small and medium-sized convertible bonds with smaller gains and positive fundamentals this year. ”
"Having experienced this round of rebound, the current market is increasingly intensified, and the convertible bonds with reasonable valuations can be retired and are suitable for the current market environment." The head of the private equity agency said.
(Article source: 21st Century Business Herald)