On March 14, Deputy Director and Chief Macro Strategy of Great Wall Securities Research InstituteAnalystWang Yi accepted an interview with Sina. As the first analyst to see 4000 points in this round of market, he believes that the core logic of this round of market has not changed. Although the market has adjusted in the past two days, it is a normal phenomenon in the process of rising, but the policy intends to cool the market, which may lead to shorter adjustment time. For investment clues, he is still optimistic about "finance + technology."
1. As the first analyst to see 4000 points, what is the core logic of 4000 points?
Wang Yi: Many people are not optimistic about the current round of the market, mainly because of concerns about fundamentals. In fact, the core driving factor of this round of market is not the fundamentals, but also the "imminent policy requirements for the transformation of the national economy." In the past many years, we have relied on investment to promote the economy, but the current marginal effect of investment is very weak. The macro economy faces growth challenges. How to solve current contradictions and activate technological innovation and household consumption is the top priority of the policy. The realization of the above objectives must rely on the cooperation of the capital market to play the role of the capital market to support the real economy.
First, the uncertainty facing technological innovation requires capital markets to finance it. Since many science and technology enterprises are light asset industries, it is difficult to obtain funds through mortgage financing similar to that of real estate enterprises and heavy industry enterprises. Therefore, direct financing is crucial. This requires the capital market to provide a good financing environment, restore market confidence, provide funds for these companies and fair pricing.
The ZTE incident has taught us a profound lesson. The determination of China's transformation is extremely firm. As the world's two largest economies, we expect that some trade disputes between China and the United States may exist for a long time. Therefore, it is necessary to let the capital market help the economic transformation and cultivate our own core technology. This is the first support logic.
Second, to improve household consumption, there must be support from the capital market. This is a long-term logic involving a long logical chain.
On the one hand, we see that the countries in the transition periodHouse priceThe control is very firm, why? Because it is necessary to activate household consumption, it is impossible to let house prices squeeze the disposable income of residents. Therefore, it is inevitable that the balance of large-scale assets will be tilted toward the stock market.
On the other hand, enterprises are macroeconomic cells, and economic growth and household consumption levels depend on this. The sluggish capital market has made many listed companies worse, not only unable to finance but also a liquidity crisis. Therefore, we must invigorate the stock market, improve the corporate environment, and thus improve employment and increase residents' income. The company's revitalized funds return to normal, and can also form a positive interaction with the capital market.
Finally, we point out that the 4000 point is not to gain market gimmicks, or the market must be above 4,000 points. It is believed that in this region, there is a relatively good capital market environment to solve the above problems. This is the requirement for an objective environment during the transition period.
2. Recently, the regulatory authorities seem to be interested in cooling the fast-rising stock market. How do you see the policy's disturbance to the market?
Wang Yi: The policy is indeed irritating to the market, but it is not the core factor of adjustment.
After this wave of market launch, the market's rising speed actually exceeded many people's expectations, which led to the accumulation of a lot of profit-making, so there is a natural adjustment demand, and the SSE's 3000-point integer mark is compared to the investors themselves. sensitive. We have seen a large decline in the GEM in the past two days, also because of the large increase in the GEM.
Under the influence of the policy, it is expected that the adjustment time of the market will be shorter, and adjustments may be completed soon, so as to achieve a new recovery. Investors do not have to worry too much about policy disturbances.
3. If the current round of the market continues, which sectors do you like?
Wang Yi: There are two main clues, "finance + technology."
The first is finance. Because of the improvement of the capital market financing environment during the transition period, the direct financing of science and technology enterprises is closely related to non-banking finance. This is a relatively consistent market expectation. Therefore, this round of market non-bank financial performance is better. Next is expected to remain strong.
The second is technology. Technology is a clue to the determinism of this round of the market, but technology is a relatively general clue. We believe that the concept of technology and biomedicine involved in TMT and military industry in the subdivision is expected to be performed in turn.
4. It is reported that the science and technology board will open in June-July. Is this round of market related to the science and technology board? Funding faceMeetingWill not form a blood draw effect on the GEM?
Wang Yi: Although the news that the science and technology board is about to open is not the core factor that triggered the market, the current round of market and the science and technology board are indeed related.
First, on the whole, the capital market is inseparable, and the transmission of risks and emotions will reach every corner. If the A-share market has been sluggish, the market sentiment will undoubtedly be transmitted to the Science and Technology Board, which will affect the pricing and financing of the market-based listed companies, which is not conducive to the science and technology board to support the real economy. As a top-level design, the policy has improved the capital market environment. Motivation.
Secondly, the establishment of the science and technology board reflects the firm determination of the high-level economic transformation, and conveyed sufficient confidence to the market, effectively improving the risk appetite of the capital market for the small and medium-sized sectors, and is also one of the factors driving this “scientific and technological” market.
For the blood-sucking effect that the market is worried about, we expect that the scale of the first batch of enterprises should not be very large after the launch of the science and technology board. The regulatory level is based on the principle of stability, and it is bound to take into account the diversion effect, so investors do not have to worry.
(Article source: Sina)