After experiencing a big upswing, the GEM has seen a two-day adjustment. It plunged 4.49% yesterday and continued to fall 2.58% today. Meanwhile,The Shanghai Composite IndexAlso lost 3,000 points, down the number of stocks over one hundred.
In the first two days, there was a private placement that said that the A-share bull market had come and would “turn over” the highest point of the previous round of the 2015 bull market, which was 5178 points. But now the big adjustments in growth stocks are coming, investors are confused, is the rise over? Has the market trend changed? Is there any profit effect next?
In the face of the current rapidly changing market,fundJun interviewed a number of private placements, they are rather calm, think that the market is rising too fast in the short term, the callback is also a good thing, still firmly optimistic about this year's market, actively do more, but will also adjust the position according to market changes.
Fund Jun has learned from some channels about the latest view of Zhao Jun, a 10 billion private funded freshwater spring investment. Freshwater Spring feels that fundamentals and liquidity have become the key factors affecting the market. The accelerated development of Science and Technology is an innovative technology growth enterprise. Come to a new space. Liu Xiaolong, the former manager of the original invention star fund and now the general manager of Juming Investment, believes that last year's research on growth stocks was lonely. This year, everyone started to look at small stocks. In the future, a group of small and medium-sized enterprises will come out.
At the same time, Fund Jun also interviewed Yu Dingheng, General Manager of Wing Tiger Investment, Yu Aibin, General Manager of Juyi Capital, Chen Jihao, Executive Director of Gaoxi Assets, and many other private equity holders, as well as well-known private placements such as Jude Investment, Zhishun Investment and Qinghequan Capital. The latest view, I hope to give investors some reference.
Zhengda Dai Zhikang: This round of upswing will break through the 2015 peak.The short-term market is coming to an end
Chairman of the Shanghai Zendai Group and well-known figure in the A-share market, Dai Zhikang, recently published an article saying that the A-share “this round of growth is essentially a recovery and continuation of the 2015 bull market, and will certainly break through the 2015 high point” in the industry. Caused a lot of attention.
Subsequently, Dai Zhikang also released Weibo, reminding fans, now "When the good news is flying, it means that the market may accelerate adjustment, the short-term market stage is coming to an end, and everyone should not chase the ups and downs."
Danshui Spring Investment Zhao Jun:Fundamental and liquidity are key factors affecting the market
The investment of 10 billion privately-owned freshwater springs has always been regarded as a model of value investment and reverse investment in the industry. Zhao Jun, the head of Danshuiquan, has also received much attention in the market. After suffering a sharp drop last year, the net value of the products of Danshuiquan has rebounded more rapidly this year.
Recently, the fund has been informed of the latest view of Vale's investment on the market: whether the A-share market is likely to have systemic opportunities in the context of loose policies, low corporate profit base and generally low expectations of investors. The market performance in February has already shown the characteristics of evolution in this direction. Compared with the cautious pessimism a month ago, the current market sentiment has changed direction. The rapid rise in the A-share market in the first two months of this year was firstly due to the economic downturn in suppressing the market in 2018 and the pessimistic expectation of the Sino-US trade war. The continued warming of the policy has enhanced the expectation of economic stabilization, and the Sino-US trade negotiations have seen positive improvements, alleviating market concerns. On this basis, the decision-making layer's positioning of the capital market has enhanced market confidence and further pushed the market upward.
What we need to think about now is what factors will become a key factor affecting the market. The evolution of economic fundamentals is the first thing that needs attention. The current fundamentals present a situation in which downward pressure and positive change coexist. Against the background that the economic downturn is still going on, we see that the growth rate of social financing stock in January has stabilized for the first time since July 2017; the policy level still supports the real economy precisely; the optimism of enterprises rises. On the other hand, with the 2018 annual report and the 2019 quarterly reportPerformanceThe pessimistic expectations of the market for the economy will be reflected in the company's financial data. Under this circumstance, whether the positive changes in the economic level will weaken the influence of this pessimistic factor has become a concern of the market.
Another phenomenon that has caused us to think about is that after the current rapid market rise, some people may have short-term profit-taking ideas, or they may worry that the rise is too fast and there may be a correction. At the same time, we also see that the current policy is loose, the economy is bottoming out, MSCI's increase in the proportion of A-shares brings about an increase in liquidity, and the acceleration of the science and technology board brings new space for innovative technology growth companies. The environment will help attract long-term funding. How to balance the short-term market performance and operational ideas with the long-term configuration of A shares is also worth thinking about.
Regarding the portfolio investment operation, Danshui said that in the current portfolio, the financial and emerging growth layouts benefited from the rebound in market risk appetite and provided a higher performance contribution. As the market transactions were active, we increased the portfolio adjustment based on judgment. .
Juming Investment Liu Xiaolong: The market is still in its infancy
Liu Xiaolong, the general manager of Juming Investment, has worked in the public offering for more than 11 years. He is the investment director who manages more than 30 billion assets. He has also won many honors, and now he is "public and private". At present, Liu Xiaolong is relatively optimistic about the market outlook.
He said that first of all, although the Shanghai Composite Index rose more than 20% year-to-date, first the market fell more than 30% last year, and it would take more than 50% to fill the pit. Secondly, the varieties that have been leading this year are mainly the aquaculture, photovoltaic, and policy-supported 5G sectors, and there are still a significant number of stocks that have not rebounded significantly. Therefore, there is still room for interpretation in the future. Recently, when communicating with peers, the consensus is that there are more good stocks in the market, because we may have not fully and systematically observed these companies in the past two years, and many of them have quietly changed their fundamentals. . In the face of good companies, the market is often willing to pay a relatively high valuation to get a risk premium.
Standing at the current time, Liu Xiaolong believes that even if the index may be stagflation, there are still many opportunities for individual stocks, and the investment environment of the entire market is far better than last year. Last year, buying wrong stocks may have to pay a big price. If you look at it, there is no premium. But this year's punishment will not be too big. If you look at it, you will have a big gain. It can be said that the whole market is still in its infancy.
Liu Xiaolong also said that one of the more happy things is that everyone finally started to study small stocks. Because last year was very lonely, you told others about small stocks. When people look at the liquidity and market value of the company, they are too lazy to care about you. In fact, today's Gree used to be a small business, and it took more than ten years to grow up. The Chinese entrepreneurs still have a lot of ideas. In the future, a group of small and medium-sized enterprises will come out.
Juyi Capital Yu Aibin:Configuring core blue chips and emerging industries
Yu Aibin, general manager of Juyi Capital, believes that this market is mainly due to the adjustment of the GEM, because the previous increase was driven by short-term funds, and the speculation was too much. This model must be a skyrocketing, roller coaster market. How to go up and down Come down. Therefore, I believe that the current short-term uptrend is over, and the market will adjust for a while, especially in the previous period.themeStocks and concept stocks.
However, from the current valuation of the entire market, after this round of increase, the valuation has also risen relative to the bottom, but the overall is still low, especially blue chips,Shanghai and Shenzhen 300The valuation is still below the historical average. At the same time, China's macro economy is in the second shift period. Although the downward pressure on long-term growth is still great, the risk of a serious downturn in the short-term economy has eased. As the Sino-US trade war has eased, the macro-loaning efforts are increasing. Tax, loosecurrencyPolicies, etc., have a bottoming effect. Therefore, we feel that the market will have a chance after the next shock adjustment.
In terms of investment operations, due to the recent lack of stocks involved in the concept of speculation, the position is relatively low, and has not been affected much. Next, some direction and sector layout will be found in the market adjustment process. Mainly look at two directions: First, the core blue chip of partial defense, including insurance, home appliances, food, beverages, etc.; second, emerging industries, including photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, computers, big data, cloud services, etc., with business models, and Growing stocks in cash.
Wing Tiger Investment Yu Dingheng: Now it is a bull market,A shares will fluctuate in the next two or three years
Yu Dingheng, general manager of Wing Tiger Investment, believes that the GEM needs to be adjusted more and more normal, and some funds have profit-taking requirements. We believe that in the future, the market will move toward differentiation, and stocks with performance support will have performance. If there is no, they will have to adjust and return to the fundamentals.
Recently, I have optimized the position around the combination in the operation. According to the direction I am looking for, I will increase the position on the bargain-hunt. The main configuration direction is in technology stocks, including knowledge products, media, TMT, technology innovation, etc.Broker, insurance, etc. We buy stocks that are profitable, undervalued, and undervalued.
Yu Dingheng believes that this adjustment is relatively normal, there is still opportunity in the back market, because now is a bull market. This wave of callbacks may take several weeks, but there is confidence in the market as a whole. Because the current fundamentals for the stock market are very good, including policy and liquidity environment are very good. In the next two or three years, the market will have a better market, and A-shares will fluctuate upward.
Gao Xi Assets Chen Jihao:The GEM is not lacking in good companies to be optimistic about big consumption.
Chen Jihao, executive director of Gaoxi Assets, said that this round of adjustment of the GEM is normal, because after all, the short-term gains are very large, especially some concept stocks and theme stocks without performance support, which have been boosted by hot money, which has added a lot to the market. Risks and speculative atmosphere are strong, which is not conducive to the development of the stock market health.
NowadaysSSE 50The index did not follow the other indexes, and to a certain extent reflected that the investment still has to return to the source. It is value plus growth. The GEM does not lack a good company, but it must be carefully screened. The adjustment trend after the skyrocketing will inevitably lead to the differentiation of individual stocks, and the garbage stocks with high gains should avoid it. We continue to be optimistic about the big consumer sector, which is also our main investment direction for some time to come. We pay less attention to the small ticket.
Jude Investment: Short-term adjustment creates opportunities for the future
OriginalHuashang FundThe investment of Yude Investment, established by the manager, Tian Tianzhen, has developed rapidly in recent years. The company recently expressed its opinion on market changes, and recently the market has undergone major adjustments. We believe that short-term adjustment is conducive to the healthier long-term development of the stock market. The trend of the latter market still depends on the above three factors: loose liquidity, friendly policy, and foreign capital inflow. These three logics have not changed. We are still optimistic about the market outlook. This year is another good equity asset allocation opportunity. .
We can't interrupt our rhythm because of short-term noise, and give up long-term sustainable investment strategies. Looking back, we are still optimistic, and the short-term adjustment is to create opportunities for the future.
After experiencing a bear market last year, we did not expect a rapid rise in the market. The configuration was conservative, but it was solid. It belonged to even a bear market that could make money. It really earned money through EPS. Now that the bottom of the market has undergone a round of upswing and adjustment phase, our combined offensive configuration will be strengthened, and more varieties will be arranged to represent the future direction and innovation direction. It is an opportunity for us to balance and re-allocate. We are still optimistic about the structural bull market.
Zhishun Investment: Looking for structural opportunities brought about by valuation flexibility
Zhishun Investment, established by star fund manager Liu Hong, recently believes that the core driving force of the A-share market this year is the warm-up of macro-policy. The macro-hedging policy introduced in 2019 is likely to exceed the capital market. Investors' expectations, whether fiscal or monetary policy for cyclical issues or structural reforms for structural issues, will reflect the strength and execution of the market.
From the data point of view, the stock-to-asset ratio is still outstanding compared to other asset classes. Therefore, we insist that it is still a good time to significantly increase the allocation of stock assets. In the next combination, we will focus on looking for structural investment opportunities brought about by valuation flexibility: focusing on outstanding companies that have been smothered by excessive pessimism in 2018, looking for leading companies with business models that have room for improvement, while avoiding crowded transactions. Variety.
Qinghequan Capital: Later valuations continue to be repaired
The Qinghequan Capital, established by Liu Qingshan, the general manager of the original TEDA Manulife, has outstanding performance in recent years. Qinghequan Capital recently issued a view that from the historical experience, the complete round of big market is divided into the initial stage (value restoration) and medium term (wearing Weiss double-clicks) and later (manufacturing bubbles). The current valuation and market bottom have emerged, and the expectation of profitability is also improving. So the whole is still in the early days of a round of market.
In the early days of the market, the history will generally be divided into two paragraphs. The first paragraph is basically the beta market (replenishment position, light stocks), the industry performance is general increase; the second paragraph is biased toward the alpha market (adjust position, heavy Individual stocks), the industry is characterized by differentiation. In the short-term market, we believe that we are about to enter the second stage and need to select stocks.
Our previous analysis of valuation fixes focused on “liquidity easing”, “capital market reforms” and “profit improvement expectations”. The general valuation restoration mainly relies on the first two factors in the early stage, and the current round of valuation has been repaired. The full A index rose by nearly 30% in January and February. These factors are expected to continue in the short term, but the marginal effect is decreasing. The post-evaluation continues to be repaired and needs to rely on earnings to improve expectations. Before each round of economic stabilization, the industry is more divided. Generally, some leading industries are the first to recover. For example, recently weResearchThe engineering machinery data is more eye-catching, and we will continue to track the profit stabilization situation and consolidate our judgment on fundamentals.
(Article source: China Fund News)