A shares failed to replay the "519" market. In the past two days, the market has stepped into adjustment, and the volcano has not been surprised.
do you remember? In the articles on March 3, March 10, and March 11, Volkswagen pointed out that the funding line is under strong pressure.Shanghai indexFaced with the pressure of the demarcation line between the bulls and bears, there are more 3,000 points above the set, and the market replays the "519" market.
On the 14th, the biggest decline in the Shanghai stock index was close to 2%.GEMThe biggest drop in the session was around 3.8%. The number of daily limit shares has also been greatly reduced, and the number of downside shares has increased.
In the March 3 article, Volcano Jun pointed out that “from the current situation, the fund line confirmation has reached the bottom of history, which will have important implications for the market in the next 1-2 years.” This shows that in the funds The online line can find some answers for when the market ends.
From the perspective of historical law, when the capital line sees the bottom of history, the market will enter a structural market, and individual stocks will be heavier than the broader market. An important sign on the 14th was that the floating ticket for the down limit began to increase, and the funds began to return to the outstanding stocks.
1, the Shanghai index adjustment time may have 1~2 months
Judging from the Shanghai index on the 14th, the Shanghai index is operating below the boundary between the bull and bear. At present, the position of the bull-bear boundary is at 3046, which is currently suppressed by the line.
In the article on March 10, Volcano Jun pointed out that "historically, in the bear market, after the fund line first saw the bottom of the history or the bottom of the big, it will trigger a wave of intermediate rebound. In the process of rebound, the fund line A sharp upward breakout of the boundary between the bull and the bear. After the rally ended, the fund line was adjusted to the bottom of the history, and some were adjusted to the vicinity of the boundary between the bull and the bear." "Because the boundary between the bull and the bear is upward, so As time goes by, even if the fund line is adjusted to the boundary between the bull and the bear, the adjustment of the fund line will be less than 40%."
On the 14th, the fund line fell by 3%, indicating that funds have flowed out. If the fund line is adjusted to the vicinity of the bull-bear line, the fund line will likely fall by 40%. If the Shanghai Stock Index adopts a slow and volatility to adjust, from the adjustment time, it is estimated that it will take at least one to two months. If you take a quick fall, the adjustment time will be much shorter.
From the point of view of the Shanghai Stock Index, if the 20-day moving average and the 30-day moving average cannot stop adjusting, then it may fall to the 250-day moving average. The gap gap left on February 25 is also a very important support.
After the fund line and the broader market step into the rest, the differentiation of individual stocks will increase, the market enters the structural market, the quality of individual stocks is more critical than the broader market, and some stocks will not rise with the broader market.
For example, on the 14th, the Shanghai stock index fell, the liquor sector rose against the trend, Guizhou Maotai rose 3.18%, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao also turned red. On the 14th,QFIIHeavy position andfundThe heavy warehouse style index is all red.
QFII heavy warehouse style plate, the top gainers on the 14th
Funds heavyweight style plate on the 14th rose the top stocks
However, those hot money tickets in the previous period were turned off on the 14th, such as Dongfang Network, Shunyi Shares, Shibei Gaoxin, Yingfangwei, Longyun shares and so on.
This shows that the funds are beginning to return to the blue-chip stocks, and the spring of the blue-chip stocks has come.
2. Where is the technology "big cow"?
Recently, Gao Yuncheng, the general manager of the old-fashioned 10,000-yuan private equity fund, said that a major feature of the recent A-share operation is that “the market atmosphere is active and the liquidity is good”. “Most of the stocks that are hot speculation are not fundamentally excellent. company of". But in the long run, the market "has to havePerformanceSupport has gone far.” For the investment strategy of Jinglin Assets, Gao Yuncheng said that the most important thing is to find “excellent companies with real core competitiveness”, without too much care.
The volcano is more agreeable. We can go and see the follow-up trend of stocks such as Tellus A, Sichuan Shuangma, and *ST Yida, which were squandered in the past few years. It can be seen that the stocks after the hot money speculation have a greater risk of falling in the following years.
In the next few years, technology stocks will be a major investment theme, which is the market consensus. Recently, some technology concept stocks have continuously pulled up the daily limit, and some new terms have appeared: such as ubiquitous power Internet of Things, digital hygiene, and hyper-converged software. . . . . .
Some time ago, there was a paragraph on the Internet saying that the company owner sawBrokerResearch reportLater, I discovered that my company was so powerful. It can be seen that in the process of researching technology stocks, it is necessary to avoid those pseudo-tech stocks and concept stocks. It is necessary to study whether the company is creating concepts, how high the company's technology content is, and how much is the annual investment in research and development. How likely is this technology to be surpassed by peers? Is it a domestic exclusive technology, and how big is the technology gap with global giants?
In the US stock market from 1980 to 2000, some real technology stocks with competitive advantages rose enormously, such as Motorola, Texas Instruments, Intel, Amgen, and Genentech. Genentech, which developed new drugs in 1980, was listed on NASDAQ with a market capitalization of only $35 million. The company continued to introduce heavy-weight genetic drugs. In 2008, the company's market capitalization was as high as $100 billion, and its market value in 2008 increased by more than 2,800 times. However, there must be in-depth research on such enterprises, and investment in these enterprises must have a high degree of professionalism.
(Anjin company's chart)
It can be seen that the potential of high-quality technology stocks is huge. So how do you choose quality stocks?
In the process of entering the market, the market will give the answer, thosethemeStocks and concept stocks will gradually return to their original shape, and those genuine quality stocks will go out of the independent market, so this adjustment is a good time for stock picking.
For example, in the precise medical treatment of medicine, for some patients, many tests have been done, and the money has also been taken for medicine, but it has been found that the medicine has no effect and there is no right medicine. Accurate medical treatment is to solve this problem, to find the root of the disease for different individuals, the right medicine. This will have a very large impact on the entire pharmaceutical industry.
Volcano Jun found that at the beginning of December last year, there was an investment in the photovoltaic industry at that time, and that the energy storage industry is expected to grow at an average annual rate of more than 100% in the next few years, but the current volume is still too small, the secondary market still lacks investment targets. . From now on, the stocks in the photovoltaic industry are indeed eye-catching. It seems that the energy storage industry is worth studying.
(Article source: Volcano wealth)