On March 14, Guotai Junan's Spring Strategy Conference in 2019 was held in Shanghai. For the adjustment of the A-share market, Guotai Junan Chief StrategyAnalystLi Shaojun believes that the short-term correction does not change the main logic of the market, and the main logic of market rise has not been destroyed.
First, the economic improvement is not expected to be falsified, and the tax reduction and reduction at the policy level,currencyThe fine-tuning of policies and the deepening of reforms in key areas can have a positive effect on the economy.
Second, from the perspective of market structure, there is no sign that market risk appetite has significantly reversed. The current risk premium is still at a high level in history, which hides the market's concerns about economic growth and concerns about the recovery of listed companies' earnings.
Li Shaojun said that statically, after this round of valuation to repair the market, the risk premium level of A shares has dropped significantly, but from a dynamic perspective, under the effect of positive fiscal policy and monetary policy marginal improvement, the market has no riskinterest rateFallback can be expected. At the same time, the earnings of listed companies are expected to bottom out in the third and fourth quarters of this year. If these core drivers are moving in the expected direction, the current valuation is still very cheap.
Regarding the inflow and outflow of foreign capital, Li Shaojun believes that the style of foreign investment is relatively long-term and the investment horizon is relatively wide. Therefore, although the foreign capital flow has short-term fluctuations, the inflow is expected to continue.
(Article source: China Securities Network)