The housing problem is closely related to every common citizen. The real estate policy and market trend are also one of the focuses of attention at the two sessions each year.
BrokerThe Chinese reporters sorted out the expressions of real estate-related policies during the two sessions, including the government work report, the official position of the industry directors and regulatory authorities, and extracted five major real estate regulation policies, real estate financial policies, real estate tax legislation, new urbanization, and real estate market conditions. Keywords, around these five key words, help you analyze this year's real estate policy and market signals.
Signal 1: Real estate regulation policy
Adhere to the "household and not speculation" to maintain the continuity and stability of the policy
At present, the real estate market has cooled down overall. At the end of last year, some cities have fine-tuned the real estate control policies. Some people interpret them as signals of regulation or loosening. Therefore, this year's regulation and control policy has attracted much attention.
Regarding the real estate control policy, the government work report stated: “To better solve the housing problem of the masses, implement the main responsibility of the city, reform and improve the housing market system and guarantee system, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Continue to promote the construction of affordable housing and urban shanty District renovation to ensure the basic housing needs of the needy groups."
Since the expression of real estate in the government work report is less than the number of words in previous years, the wording is also quite flat, especially without mentioning “regulation” and “House price"Key words, such as many people interpret this year's regulation policy or will be loose signals, and even some real estate agents and real estate sales used as a promotional slogan to attract buyers to buy a house.
However, the Minister of Housing and Construction, Wang Menghui, clearly stated at the finale of the last "Ministerial Channel" of the two sessions that this year, we must implement the work plan for a stable and healthy development of the real estate market, and we must do five "persistences".
First, adhere to the "location of housing and not speculation" positioning.
Second, adhere to the improvement of the housing market system and housing security system.
Third, adhere to the implementation of urban responsibility. Due to the city's policy and classification guidance, it is necessary to continuously improve the market monitoring and early warning and evaluation mechanism, especially the responsibility of stabilizing land prices, stabilizing housing prices, and stabilizing expectations.
Fourth, adhere to the adjustment of structure and transfer methods, especially to vigorously cultivate and develop the housing rental market, focusing on solving the housing problems of new citizens.
Fifth, maintain the continuity and stability of the policy and prevent major ups and downs.
Wang Menghui made a more detailed statement on this year's real estate regulation and control policy, among which, “the housing does not speculate”, stabilize the price stability, stabilize the housing price, foster and develop the housing rental market, maintain the continuity and stability of the policy, Preventing key words such as big ups and downs from being mentioned again is equivalent to indirectly denying "the adjustment of industry supervision."
The industry believes that this statement is consistent with the annual working meeting of the Ministry of Housing and the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of December last year, which means that real estate industry managers do not want the property market to relax too quickly, or to maintain policy continuity and stability. This big policy has remained basically unchanged. The future property market policy will still crack down on investment speculation and protect real residence. Even if some urban policies continue to be adjusted, the principle of local ownership requires that the real estate market will remain stable and prevent housing prices from rising and falling.
Signal 2: Real Estate Finance Policy
The general policy remains unchanged, and strict control of high-leverage housing enterprises and investment in speculative housing loans
After the central bank's overall RRR cut in January this year, the industry generally expected that the looseness of liquidity will bring significant benefits to the real estate industry that is eager for capital. On the one hand, the financial pressure of housing enterprises is expected to ease, on the other hand, mortgage loans.interest rateExpected to lower. At the same time, housing financing plans have been released intensively this year, and some cities have banks downgrading first home loans.interest rateEven lowered the down payment ratio of the first home loan, once again triggering the market for real estate financeCreditExpectations of policy relaxation. Therefore, this year's real estate financial credit policy has received much attention.
In this regard, Guo Shuqing, secretary of the Party Committee of the Central Bank and chairman of the Banking Insurance Regulatory Commission, clearly stated that the overall policy of the next phase of real estate financial policy will not change. He also said that structural de-leverage is to lower the leverage of enterprises and stabilize the leverage of the residential sector. Because the leverage ratio of households has increased rapidly in recent years, this part of the leverage involves personal housing loans, which may be related to residents buying houses and real estate. The government department is to control the increase in implicit debt and to resolve the stock.
Regarding whether the scale of real estate loans will be limited, Wang Zhaoxing, vice chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said that in the field of real estate loans, supervision also takes a different attitude, based on the risk, and the support of this support. Strengthen the monitoring of real estate loans, those with poor qualifications and high leverage, the loans should be controlled; strengthen the strict control of speculative real estate loans, and also prevent the entry of real estate through shadow banking channels, and ensure the healthy and stable development of real estate; Continue to protect the basic needs of housing loans, but also strictly control investment and speculative mortgage loans, real estate finance is a key area to prevent risks.
On March 13, the China Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the "Notice on Further Enhancing the Quality and Efficiency of Financial Services for Small and Micro Enterprises in 2019", which requires all banking financial institutions to strengthen loans to small and micro enterprises.Cash flowThe monitoring of the situation, do a good job of checking the loan after the loan, to ensure that the loan funds are really used to support small and micro enterprises and the real economy, to prevent small and micro enterprise loan funds from being misappropriated to the government platform, real estate and other regulatory areas to form new risks.
The above official statement has already made it clear that the general policy of real estate financial policy will remain unchanged this year, and will be treated differently according to risks. Those housing enterprises that have poor qualifications and high debt ratios and investment speculative personal housing mortgage loans must be strictly controlled. However, loans for quality housing financing and basic housing demand will still be supported and met. However, the idea that the “water” that is expected to flow to small and micro enterprises can be diverted to the real estate sector may be lost.
Signal 3: Real Estate Tax Legislation
Steady progress is currently improving the draft law
Real estate tax is related to everyone's interests. Every official statement of real estate tax can stimulate people's sensitive nerves. However, the real estate tax has been "screaming" for many years and has not progressed. It has also become the "Damocles" hanging over people's heads. sword". It was not until last September that the real estate tax was officially included in the five-year legislative plan of the National People's Congress. Therefore, the latest developments in real estate tax have also received much attention.
The statement in the government work report on March 5 is that “the local tax system is improved and the real estate tax legislation is steadily promoted”. The difference between this expression and the expression in the government work report last year was changed from "stable" to "steady", but there was no substantial change.
During the second meeting of the 13th National People's Congress on March 8, the news that “the real estate tax law was to be formulated this year” was heard, and many people misunderstood that real estate tax will be introduced this year. The sound fell sharply.
In fact, the original statement of Li Zhanshu, chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, is: "Concentrate on the implementation of major legislative issues determined by the Party Central Committee, including reviewing the Civil Code, enacting amendments to the Criminal Law (11), basic medical health and health promotion. Law, Real Estate Tax Law, Export Control Law, Community Correction Law, Civil-Military Integration Development Law, Retired Military Security Law, Administrative Disciplinary Law, Amendment to Securities Law, Active Military Officer Law, Military Service Law, People's Armed Police Law, National People's Congress Organization Law, National Rules of Procedure for the People's Congress, Biosafety Law, Yangtze River Protection Law, etc.ResearchTo draft, we must step up our work and ensure that it is completed on schedule. ”
He only said that this year is the legislative investigation and drafting of a number of laws. The real estate tax law is only one of them. This is also one of the work steps of the “steady advancement” in the government work report.
On March 9th, U Ritu, deputy director of the NPC Financial and Economic Committee, gave a clear progress on the real estate tax: "According to the central requirements, the real estate tax law was jointly drafted by the Budget Working Committee of the NPC Standing Committee and the Ministry of Finance. Relevant departments are working hard to improve the draft law and the demonstration of major issues. When the conditions are ripe, they will be submitted to the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress for initial review."
On the same day, Liu Junchen, deputy director of the Legislative Affairs Commission of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, also said: "According to the legislative plan of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, the relevant parties are now studying and drafting the draft real estate tax law, and relevant work is progressing steadily."
From the latest expression, the draft real estate tax law may have formed a text. After soliciting opinions internally, there are still some important differences and problems. It needs to be revised and agreed upon after repeated arguments, and then it will be comprehensively considered when it is submitted for preliminary review. All aspects of the influencing factors act cautiously, and then publicly solicit social opinions and conduct re-examination, etc., and finally, after the review and approval, and the completion of legislation, all localities should also formulate implementation rules for further implementation. It can be seen that there is still a distance from the actual implementation. Even after landing, there will be differences in the levy standards of each city. However, the collection of real estate taxes focuses on curbing speculation, and ordinary people do not need to worry too much.
Yin Zhongqing, deputy director of the NPC Financial and Economic Committee, said in an interview with the media recently that real estate tax may have an impact on real estate prices, which will increase the use and cost of real estate. But this is not to say that it is necessary to pay taxes on possession of real estate, but to increase the burden of possessing multiple suites and not using them to live in real estate. Real estate tax is a local tax, so even if the real estate tax is introduced, when it is levied and at what rate, according to the principle of law and full authorization, the local government should have a large autonomy.
On March 12, the 13th National People's Congress Financial and Economic Committee stated in the "Report on the Implementation of the Central and Local Budgets in 2018 and the Review of the Central and Local Budgets in 2019", the relevant departments should increase their efforts and do a good job in taxation. Legislative evaluation and feasibility study, improve the quality and efficiency of tax legislation, and propose to bring the VAT law, consumption tax law, tariff law, urban maintenance and construction tax law, deed tax law, stamp tax law, real estate tax law and tax collection management law (modification) to the whole country as soon as possible. The timetable for deliberation by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress is submitted to the deliberation on time to ensure the completion of the statute of taxation by 2020.
Signal 4: New urbanization
Adhere to the development of urban agglomerations with central cities, and the pace of urbanization will continue to accelerate
Under the influence of urban policy, classification and regulation, the national real estate market has cooled down overall. Some housing enterprises are not optimistic about the future development prospects of the industry. However, some housing companies believe that China's urbanization is not over, and the real estate market still has room for development. .
For the new urbanization, the government work report also clearly stated: “Deeply promote new urbanization. Persist in guiding the development of urban agglomerations with central cities. Grasp the transfer of agricultural population and promote the basic public services of urban areas to cover the resident population. Wide-ranging, we must vigorously carry out transformation and upgrading, update water circuit gas and other supporting facilities, support the installation of elevators, improve the convenience service market, convenience stores, pedestrian streets, parking lots, barrier-free access and other life service facilities."
The industry believes that the report has emphasized “in-depth promotion of new urbanization” for many years, but lacks specific measures. This time it clearly stated that “adhering to the development of urban agglomerations in central cities” confirms the logic of the development of the metropolitan area. This means that in the future, the metropolitan area with the central city as the core will attract more industries and populations. In addition to the future development of cities and towns other than the central cities and their metropolitan areas, the urban polarization pattern is difficult to avoid.
For the development of China's new urbanization, many ministry officials also clearly expressed optimistic expectations.
Any of the leaders of the National Development and Reform Commission said: "China's new urbanization is accelerating. There are now more than 600 cities across the country, more than 400 are large and medium-sized cities, and others are small cities. Last year, the resident population's urbanization rate reached 59.58%, and the urbanization rate per By increasing by one percentage point, nearly 14 million people will be transferred from rural areas to urban areas. Not only will they increase the investment in urban public service facilities, but they will also release huge consumer demand for food, clothing, housing and transportation. At the same time, they will speed up the development of short-boards, accelerate the transformation of shanty towns, and speed up the urban old Old community renovation, etc., will further release huge potential market."
Ning Jizhen, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, also said: "At the end of 2018, the urbanization rate of the permanent resident population was 59.58%, and the urbanization rate of the registered population was 43.37%, which was 1.06 and 1.02 percentage points higher than the previous year, which is very close to the country. According to the new urbanization plan (2014-2020), by 2020, the urbanization rate of permanent residents will reach 60%, and the urbanization rate of household registration will reach 45%. In the next two years, China’s urbanization rate will still be accelerate."
Signal 5: Real estate market situation
Stabilize prices and stabilize housing prices to prevent large ups and downs
In February this year, affected by the Spring Festival holiday and the retreat of homes in the third- and fourth-tier cities, the turnover of key cities was lower than that of the waist, which was also down 30% year-on-year. However, after the Spring Festival, the transaction of individual city property market has returned to the trend, individual properties opened to reappear thousands of people to grab the phenomenon, and some properties have released information to raise prices ... some people mistakenly believe that the property market is warming. Therefore, in addition to the policy direction, the trend of the real estate market has also received much attention.
Regarding the current real estate market situation, Minister of Housing and Construction Wang Menghui said at the finale of the last "Ministerial Channel" of the two sessions: "Since last year, we have resolutely implemented the decision-making arrangements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, and with the joint efforts of all parties, The real estate market maintained a stable operation overall, and the market expectation also experienced positive changes. It was mainly reflected in three aspects: First, the growth rate of housing transaction area slowed down; second, the transaction price of housing was generally stable; third, housing expectations, that is, Market expectations are gradually becoming more rational."
For this year's market trend, especially the trend of housing prices, although Wang Menghui did not say it directly, but in his proposal to implement a stable long-term mechanism for the stable and healthy development of the real estate market this year, he must do five “persistence”. It is emphasized: "We must constantly improve the market monitoring and early warning and evaluation mechanism, especially the responsibility of stabilizing land prices, stabilizing housing prices, and stabilizing expectations, and "maintaining the continuity and stability of policies to prevent major ups and downs."
This means that this year's real estate market is still dominated by "stable", land prices, housing prices, and expectations must be "stable", and stable housing prices mean that they cannot rise and fall, and cannot rise and fall. Some insiders also believe that after the Spring Festival, the recovery of individual markets is difficult to change the general trend of downward adjustment of the overall market. In the future, first- and second-tier cities are expected to stabilize at a low level, and some third- and fourth-tier cities will face certain pressures.
(Article source: brokerage China)