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A little panic for two days? Huang Yanming: 3200 points can still be broken! Foreign capital: 10% to 15% upside

March 14, 2019 22:07
source: China Securities Network

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Summary
[Huang Yanming: 3200 points can still be broken! Foreign capital: 10% to 15% upside potential] Two days of a little panic? Morgan Stanley: China's stock market still has 10% to 15% upside. Huang Yanming, director of Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute, said that the Shanghai stock index is still expected to break through 3,200 points.

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The soaring market sentiment has cooled significantly in the last two trading days.

Following the adjustment of the previous trading day, today's three major A-share indexes fell across the board.Shanghai indexIt fell below 3,000 points.themeThe stock market has been on the rise, and the hot-selling stocks such as pig cycle, digital hygiene, industrial marijuana, marginal computing and ubiquitous power internet have been in the forefront of the decline.

At the time of the retreat of the theme stocks, blue-chip stocks were relatively strong yesterday. The civil aviation airport sector led the gains. Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines and Air China and other stocks all rose more than 4%; the wine sector also rose, the stocks of Guizhou Moutai, Tsingtao Brewery and Gujing Distillery all rose more than 3%; The trend is strong, and Qilian Mountain and Evergreen are on the rise.

After two days of adjustment, is it a little flustered?

Do not be excessively pessimistic. Today, top foreign investors and domestic investment research giants have voiced, saying that they continue to be optimistic about the market outlook.

  Big Mo:

  China's stock market still has 10% to 15% upside

On March 14, Morgan Stanley held a press conference in Shanghai, Morgan Stanley Chinamarketing strategyShi, vice president Wang Hao published her latest views on the A-share market.

After experiencing a wave of “emergency cows”, the market sentiment of A-shares began to gradually cool down in the last two trading days. How the market will go next is a question that many investors care about.

In this regard, Wang Wei said that he is very optimistic about the A-share market, continues to see more, and further raised the target price of the Chinese stock market (including the A-share market) two weeks ago.

  According to the target price, the Chinese stock market still has a 10% to 15% upside potential.

She believes that China's stock market currently has the largest upside relative to other emerging stock markets, and investors are also advised to further increase Chinese stocks in global equity asset allocation.

Wang Wei further pointed out that the logic of continuous viewing is mainly based on the following aspects:

  The first is the market's improvement in corporate earnings expectations.

Third quarter of last yearPerformanceAfter the disclosure, the entire market's expectations for corporate performance have a downward adjustment. But this kind of cliff-like adjustment often means that the market's investment prospects for the future will gradually become more rational. Since the beginning of this year, there has been a marked rebound in market sentiment. In the future, there is limited room for downward adjustment of corporate profits.

  Second, it is the improvement of policy expectations.

Wang Wei said that the recent policy of “tax reduction and fee reduction” has exceeded market expectations to some extent. According to Morgan Stanley's calculations, if the new taxation standards are implemented from May 1 this year, the constituents of the MSCI China Stock Index are expected to contribute 2.2% to 2.5% of earnings growth.

It is worth mentioning that at the beginning of this month, MSCI announced that it will increase the A-share factor from 5% to 20%. It also decided to include the A-share mid-cap and the eligible companies in the GEM.

Wang Wei said that the pace of MSCI's inclusion in mid-cap stocks and GEM stocks exceeded market expectations, which provided further support to the A-share market.

According to Morgan Stanley's calculations, the inclusion of mid-cap A-shares and GEM stocks is expected to further bring in $3 billion in passive incremental funds. It is expected that this year, FTSE Russell's inclusion of A shares is expected to bring in $10 billion in passive funds, and MSCI's upward adjustment factor will bring in $18 billion in passive funds, totaling $28 billion.

In addition to passive incremental funds, this year is also a record year for proactive funds in the allocation of A shares. Wang Wei expects that the allocation of active funds will reach 60 billion US dollars to 100 billion US dollars this year.

In addition, Morgan Stanley judged that the US dollar will be relatively weak in 2019. For Chinese companies listed overseas, this exchange rate change will play a positive role in calculating profitability and valuation.

  Huang Yanming:

  The Shanghai index is still expected to break through 3,200 points

On March 14, Guotai Junan's Spring Strategy Conference in 2019 was held in Shanghai. Huang Yanming, director of Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute, said that he continued to be optimistic about the market outlook.

He believes that 2900 points to 3200 points is an important resistance level of A shares, but looking forward to the market outlook, the future index is expected to break through 3200 points; investment allocation is based on "value build, growth singing", preferred technology stocks, followed by cyclical stocks.

Huang Yanming emphasized that the index breaks through 3,200 points and needs the help of the cyclical sector. "We can see that this power is being saved. And after the market breaks through 3,200 points, there should be room."

For the market decline in the past two days, Huang Yanming believes that the so-called "checking the capital" has little effect. Huang Yanming said that this year's situation is not the same as in 2015. The inventory check in 2015 was chosen at a time when the stock market bubble was extremely great. At that time, the micro-structure of stock holders had deteriorated, and the inventory allocation became the fuse of the stock market crash. But now, the leverage of the entire market is not high.

For market adjustment, Guotai Junan Chief StrategyAnalystLi Shaojun also believes that the short-term correction does not change the main logic of the market, and the main logic of market rise has not been destroyed.

  There are two reasons:

First, the economic improvement is not expected to be falsified, and the tax reduction and reduction at the policy level,currencyThe fine-tuning of policies and the deepening of reforms in key areas can have a positive effect on the economy.

Second, from the perspective of market structure, there is no sign that market risk appetite has significantly reversed. The current risk premium is still at a high level in history, which hides the market's concerns about economic growth and concerns about the recovery of listed companies' earnings.

Li Shaojun said that statically, after this round of valuation to repair the market, the risk premium level of A shares has dropped significantly, but from a dynamic perspective, under the effect of positive fiscal policy and monetary policy marginal improvement, the market has no riskinterest rateFallback can be expected. At the same time, the earnings of listed companies are expected to bottom out in the third and fourth quarters of this year. If these core drivers are moving in the expected direction, the current valuation is still very cheap.

Regarding the inflow and outflow of foreign capital, Li Shaojun believes that the style of foreign investment is relatively long-term and the investment horizon is relatively wide. Therefore, although the foreign capital flow has short-term fluctuations, the inflow is expected to continue.

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  Market interpretation>>>

  The reason for the decline is to check the allocation of funds? Li Xunlei clearly pointed out that the current market is essentially different from 2015!

  Haitong Securities Jiang Chao: A-share valuation is still in a historically low position

  Chen Guangming's latest speech: This time, I have the best chance to slow down. The short-term hype is coming to an end.

  Founder Securities: How long is the bull market? At least the last round of A-share bull market

  Guosen Securities: There is no fundamental support for the bull market? A-share "market bottom" has always been ahead of the "basic bottom"

(Article source: China Securities Network)

                (Editor: DF142)

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