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Insiders: Real estate is the longest bull market or entering a new cycle

March 15, 2019 01:10

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Summary
[Industry: The longest bull market in real estate or entering a new cycle] On the 14th, the National Bureau of Statistics released the national real estate development investment and sales in February 2019. In January and February, the sales area of ​​commercial housing was 141.02 million square meters, down year-on-year. 3.6%. It is worth mentioning that this is the first time this year, the data has been lowered since June 2015. In this regard, Zhongda Real Estate Principal Analyst Zhang Dawei said that the growth rate of sales area has been negative, which is the first time since June 2015, which means that the longest round of real estate growth cycle has entered the adjustment period. . “The oversupply of the property market's regulatory policies has made the demand for real estate investment down from the previous high level, and the market has entered the “bull market” stage.” Zhang Dawei said. (Economic Information Daily)

After 43 months, real estate reproduction sales area decreased year-on-year

On the 14th, the National Bureau of Statistics released the national real estate development investment and sales in the first two months of 2019. In January and February, the sales area of ​​commercial housing was 141.02 million square meters, down 3.6% year-on-year. It is worth mentioning that this is the first time this year, the data has been lowered since June 2015.

In this regard, Zhongyuan Real Estate ChiefAnalystZhang Dawei said that the growth rate of sales area has been negative, which is the first time since June 2015, which means that the longest round of real estate growth cycle has entered an adjustment period.

From the perspective of the growth rate of real estate sales, there is a continuous decline. In January-February 2019, the sales area of ​​commercial housing was 141.02 million square meters, down 3.6% year-on-year. The sales of commercial housing was 1,280.3 billion yuan, up 2.8%, and the growth rate dropped by 9.4 percentage points. However, from the data of 2018, the sales of commercial housing increased by 1.3% compared with the previous year, and the sales of commercial housing increased by 12.2% year-on-year. Compared with the sales area of ​​commercial housing in January-February 2018, the sales volume increased by 4.1%, and the sales of commercial housing increased by 15.3%. The data also has a significant narrowing.

Zhang Dawei said that from the current point of view, the peak of the real estate market has passed. Statistics from the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center show that sales have been released in January-FebruaryPerformanceThe total sales of 25 real estate enterprises was 501.9 billion yuan, down 7% year-on-year. In the same period of 2018, the year-on-year sales rose by more than 60%.

“The oversupply of the property market's regulatory policies has made the demand for real estate investment down from the previous high level, and the market has entered the “bull market” stage.” Zhang Dawei said.

However, it is worth mentioning that although the real estate industry has a small fluctuation in many indicators, the overall performance is better than expected. Shen Yu, a researcher at Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, said that from the perspective of the land market, the average price of land purchases increased year-on-year; from the perspective of real estate development and investment, the year-on-year growth rate increased slightly; residential stocks ended bottoming and entered a rising period.

Specifically, the statistics of the Bureau of Statistics show that the total investment in real estate development in the country before February 2019 was 120.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, and the growth rate was 2.1 percentage points higher than that of the whole year of 2018. Among them, residential investment was 871.1 billion yuan, an increase of 18.0%, and the growth rate increased by 4.6 percentage points. The construction area of ​​real estate development enterprises was 674.946 million square meters, an increase of 6.8% year-on-year. The growth rate was 1.6 percentage points higher than that of 2018.

The average price of land purchase, the average land purchase price of the national real estate development enterprises in the first two months was 4,466 yuan / square meter, up 31.9% year-on-year, the increase was 30.7 percentage points over the same period of last year, and 28.6 percentage points higher than last year.

It is worth noting that from the perspective of real estate inventory, the ratio of deposits and sales has begun to enter the rising channel, and the relationship between supply and demand in the property market has changed, and supply has become more and more demanding.

In terms of real estate inventory, the area of ​​commercial housing for sale at the end of February was 52.251 million square meters, a decrease of 1.62 million square meters from the end of 2018.

Shen Wei said that the recent three types of property existing housing sales and sales ratios have shown signs of rising. Among them, the housing sales ratio of residential houses in February was 13.1 months, a new high since June 2017.

"From a national perspective, the recent phenomenon of fever and Xiaoyangchun has appeared in the property market." Zhang Dawei said that in 2018House priceSome of the first- and second-tier cities that have been significantly adjusted have seen a slight recovery in the property market, but most of the third- and fourth-tier cities have begun to fall back as a factor supporting the market's rise in 2018. Therefore, from the overall market, the bull market has been bid farewell, and the market entry policy has remained stable.

Shen Wei believes that in the context of the country's short-term regulation and control policy will not relax, the market will remain stable and declining in the coming months, and the growth rate of many indicators will fall back.

(Article source: Economic Reference)

                (Editor: DF353)

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