The trend of the property market in 2019 is the focus of the industry. And the market performance of the first two months of the year can often reveal some signals. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national real estate development investment in the first two months of this year increased by double digits, while the sales area of commercial housing declined year-on-year. Mao Shengyong, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the first two monthsHouse priceThe overall trend is stable, and the current real estate market has entered a new stage of development. With the continuous improvement of the long-term mechanism, the real estate market will maintain a stable and healthy development in the future.
The "Daily Economic News" reporter found out that the sales of the real estate enterprises in the first two months of this year found that the top 100 real estate enterprises did not rise and fall, and nearly 30% of the enterprises had no new land storage. At the same time, the reporter visited the Shanghai property market in the first-tier cities and found that the transaction volume of second-hand houses in the new houses in the first two months showed a year-on-year increase, and the institutions generally generally optimistic about the performance of the market.
On March 14, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the "National Real Estate Development Investment and Sales in January-February 2019", showing that the national real estate development investment in January-February was 120.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, and the growth rate was 2018. The annual increase was 2.1 percentage points.
It is worth noting that in the first two months of this year, the sales area of commercial housing in the country decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, the land acquisition area of real estate development enterprises dropped by 34.1%, and the real estate prosperity index was lowered for four consecutive months.
Zhongyuan Real Estate ChiefAnalystZhang Dawei told the reporter of "Daily Economic News", "Unless there is a sudden policy shift, the real estate sales record in 2018 will be difficult to break. From the sales data in the last few months of 2018, the market has been weak."
Commercial housing sales area fell first after 43 months
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the sales area of commercial housing in the country from January to February was 141.02 million square meters, down 3.6% year-on-year. The sales volume was 1,280.3 billion yuan, up 2.8%, and the growth rate dropped by 9.4 percentage points. Among them, residential sales area decreased by 3.2%, sales increased by 4.5%, office building sales area decreased by 15.7%, sales decreased by 6.2%, commercial business space sales area decreased by 13.6%, and sales decreased by 9.4%.
Mao Shengyong, director of the National Bureau of Statistics of the National Economic Statistics and spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the trend of housing prices in January-February was generally stable. From the monitored changes in housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities across the country, the overall situation was relatively stable.
For the January-February, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 3.6% year-on-year. Mao Shengyong said that there are two reasons for this: First, the impact of the Spring Festival factor. Most of the factors affecting the Spring Festival this year are concentrated in February, which has a certain impact on people's purchase behavior; second, the current real estate market has entered a new stage of development. According to the central government's position on real estate, “the house is used for living, not for speculation”, and at the same time speeding up the construction of long-term mechanism, consumers and investors are more sober and more rational about buying houses. With the continuous improvement of the long-term mechanism, the real estate market will maintain a stable and healthy development in the future.
In addition, from the performance of housing companies, Ke Rui Rui data shows that the overall sales scale (operating amount) of TOP100 housing enterprises in February decreased by 22.9% from the previous month. According to comparable statistics, the sales of top 100 in February fell by 11%. %about.
From the market trend data, the increase in sales area has slowed significantly for several consecutive months. Zhang Dawei said: "The sales area of commercial housing began to increase from June 2015 until December 2018, and it took 43 months. Although the short-term sprint sales in December last year have increased, from the year of September to November 2018, There has been a significant year-on-year reduction in the transaction area. Therefore, judging the slowdown in sales from January to February 2019 continues the previous trend."
Housing funds continue to be under pressure
From January to February, the growth rate of real estate investment accelerated, which was 2.1 percentage points higher than that of 2018, and the growth rate reached 11.6%. Last year, it was maintained at around 10%. Why did it accelerate in January and February this year?
Mao Shengyong said that there are two main reasons. The first reason is that the purchase fee of the previous land has increased rapidly. The second reason is that the construction progress of real estate enterprises has accelerated this year, which has pushed up the investment in real estate.
Funds are an important factor affecting the land purchase behavior of enterprises. From January to February, the growth rate of funds for real estate development enterprises fell by 4.3 percentage points to 2.1%, of which deposits and advance receipts decreased from 13.8% in 2018 to 5.6%.
In addition to poor sales due to slow sales, the housing financing environment has not improved: domestic loans in January-February were 497.6 billion yuan, down 0.5%, and have maintained negative growth for 10 consecutive months since April 2018; Raised funds of 727.9 billion yuan, down 1.5%.
According to the report of the Yiju Research Institute, according to the comparison of the two curves in 2013 and its years, when the growth rate of enterprises in place is greater than the growth rate of development investment, it indicates that the real estate market has entered a faster development channel.
After the completion of the intersection of the two curves at the end of 2015, the beginning of January-February 2016, from January to February 2018, the growth rate of real estate development investment exceeded the year-on-year growth rate of enterprises by 5.1 percentage points, and the two curves formed scissors. In February 2019, it was further expanded to 9.5 percentage points.
Yiju Research Institute believes that the current domestic financing encounters financial institutions continue to shrink, overseas financing due to the US dollar interest rate increase, financing costs are much higher than before, and the NDRC limits the real estate enterprises' external debt funds to invest in domestic and foreign real estate projects and other regulatory factors, taking into account In the future, the overall probability of overall sales growth will continue to fall. Corporate funds will have a limited degree of easing of capital pressure on housing companies, and the pressure on real estate companies will remain high.
Housing purchases fell by more than 30%
It is worth noting that from January to February, the land purchase area and purchase price of the housing enterprises both fell sharply.
The data show that from January to February, the land acquisition area of real estate development enterprises was 15.45 million square meters, down 34.1% year-on-year, and the annual growth rate was 14.2% in 2018; the land transaction price was 69 billion yuan, down 13.1%, and the whole year was 2018 growth. 18.0%.
Since the second half of 2018, the phenomenon of land flow in cities across the country has increased significantly, and the land market has shown a cooling trend. In 2018, the national land sales revenue was 6.5 trillion yuan, down 15.7 percentage points from the same period in 2017.
In 2019, the overall land market of hot cities is still in a relatively low state. According to statistics from the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center, as of March 10, 2019, the total land transaction volume of the 50 largest cities in the country was 573.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4%.
Inventory hit a new low in 58 months
As the property market destocking is nearing completion, the volume of transactions in most cities has slowed down, and the destocking of stocks has slowed down.
The data shows that as of the end of February, the national commercial housing for sale area was 52.251 million square meters, which was 1.62 million square meters less than the end of 2018. Among them, the area for sale of residential buildings increased by 1.17 million square meters.
According to statistics from the Central Plains Real Estate Research Institute, at the end of April 2014, the national commercial housing sales area was 526.52 million square meters, and at the end of March 2014, it was 52.163 million square meters. The data at the end of February has reached a new low in 58 months.
“In February this year, the area of commercial housing for sale fell by 10.6% year-on-year. The trend of this curve is in line with expectations, that is, it continues to fall, but the rate of decline has slowed down. Currently, housing companies still face some problems of destocking, and it is expected that the market will still choose. Change the price." Zhang Dawei believes.
At the same time, Zhang Dawei told the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that the policy of continuous overweight control in 2018 has gradually become effective, coupled with the purchasing power overdraft, and the 43-month real estate bull market, including the overall economic macro-environment, has made real estate investment demand Weakened, the market began to enter the 'post-bull' stage, and there may be loose property market regulation policies in the areas where the market is down.
(Article source: Daily Economic News)