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In the first two months of 2019, the investment and consumption data slightly exceeded expectations. Experts: The trend of the economy is gradually emerging.

March 15, 2019 03:42
Author: Zhaobaizhinan

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The National Bureau of Statistics released data on the 14th, January-February 2019,The total retail sales of social consumer goods666.4 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 8.2% year-on-year; nationwideFixed asset investment(excluding farmers) 4,444.9 billion yuan, an increase of 6.1% year-on-year;real estateThe development investment was 120.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%.

Experts believe that the economy continues to operate in a reasonable range, maintaining a stable overall, stable and progressive development trend, and gradually showing a good trend. Economic data such as investment and consumption are slightly more than expected. The unexpected tax cuts and reductions in this government work report have already had obvious effects in stabilizing and enhancing the confidence of the real economy. The continued emergence of future policy effects will lead to the gradual investment and consumption data. Stabilize and improve.

Car sales fell and stabilized to support zero

Data show that in January-February, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 8.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was the same as that in December of last year. Among them, the growth rate of upgraded goods consumption is faster. Among the retail sales of units above designated size, the year-on-year growth rates of books, magazines, cosmetics, and cultural office supplies were 25.7, 0.7, and 0.6 percentage points higher than the total retail sales of social consumer goods, respectively. The national online retail sales amounted to 1,398.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%. Among them, the online retail sales of physical goods was 1,090.1 billion yuan, an increase of 19.5%, accounting for 16.5% of the total retail sales of consumer goods, an increase of 1.6 percentage points over the same period of the previous year.

Mao Shengyong, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that consumption growth is relatively fast before the Spring Festival, and it will also increase consumer prices. After a Spring Festival, consumption growth will slow down.

  CICCManaging Director of the Fixed Income Department,AnalystChen Jianheng said that from the perspective of various sub-items of merchandise retailing, the consumption of real estate-related industrial chains has declined significantly, while the decline in autos has stabilized or become the main reason for supporting social zero. Among the various sub-items of merchandise retail, the proportion of autos is the highest. The continuous decline in auto sales since last year has seriously dragged down the growth rate of the company. Although the sales volume of autos has been declining recently due to high-frequency data, the decline has been significantly reduced. From -10% and -8.5% growth in November and December last year, it rose to -2.8%.

  Morgan StanleyZhang Jun, chief economist of Huaxin, said that stable consumption must first be stabilized. On the one hand, the skills training for the entire social workforce must closely follow the development of the enterprise and accelerate the development of modernity.Vocational educationTo solve the problem of shortage of high-skilled talents; on the other hand, it is also necessary to solve the problem of corporate financing difficulties, and promote enterprises to actively expand production and provide more jobs to the whole society. The active fiscal policy in terms of tax reduction and fee reduction will form a certain support for consumption. The implementation of the newly revised personal income tax law will effectively reduce the resident tax burden to a certain extent and help release the consumption potential. In addition, encouraging the development of new consumption mode and promoting the integration of online and offline consumption will also make the consumer environment more convenient and enhance the consumption power of residents.

Active fiscal policy boosts investment

Data show that in January-February, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 6.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that of the previous year. The investment in high-tech industry investment and industrial technology transformation increased by 8.6% and 19.5% respectively, and the growth rate was higher than the total investment by 2.5 and 13.4 percentage points respectively. In January-February, the national real estate development investment was 120.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%. From a ring comparison, fixed asset investment in February increased by 0.43% from the previous month.

  Industrial BankLu Zhengwei, chief economist, said that the growth rate of investment has rebounded due to the acceleration of real estate and infrastructure investment. From the perspective of the growth rate of infrastructure investment, the active fiscal policy has boosted the growth rate of infrastructure investment. Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) in January-February 2019 continued the steady-state trend since October last year, and the growth rate was 0.5 percentage points higher than that of last year. This year's government work report pointed out that the active fiscal policy should be strengthened, and the budget deficit rate rose to 2.8% in 2019. After considering the 2.15 trillion special debt, the actual deficit rate increased from 4.1% in 2018 to 5.0% in 2019. This means that the future growth rate of infrastructure investment will still benefit from a proactive fiscal policy.

  CITIC SecuritiesThe chief researcher of fixed income clearly stated that the growth rate of infrastructure investment at the beginning of the year increased slightly, mainly driven by investment in the railway transportation industry. In 2018, the growth rate of infrastructure investment was significantly lower under the tightening of supervision and credit contraction. However, this year, driven by the expansion of the issuance of local debt and special debt plans, it is expected that the growth rate of subsequent infrastructure investment will stabilize and rebound, but the scope is limited.

(Article source: China Securities Journal)

                (Editor: DF407)

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