Since the market returned to 3000 points, the A-share volatility has intensified, and the signal of short-term speculation has come to an end.
On March 14, it was another day of dramatic adjustment.The Shanghai Composite IndexDeclined 1.2% to close at 2999.69 points; Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.82% to close at 9419.93 points;GEMIt fell 2.58% to close at 1650.19 points.
Under the giant earthquake, the long and short views are even more divergent. Is the A-share rebound in place, or is it a reversal of the first phase? Market parties are arguing endlessly.
Standing at this key time node, the 21st Century Business Herald interviewed a number of the best performing active equity fund managers in 2019. They were: Liu Hui, Yinhua Domestic Demand Selection Fund Manager, and Qiu Jie, Qianhai Changyuan Fund Manager. Chen Ying, the manager of the Golden Eagle theme, and Zeng Peng, the manager of the Bosch Chartered Value Fund, where Qiu Jie, Chen Li and Zeng Peng also manage other funds.
As of March 13, the four funds mentioned above have yields of 57.76%, 51.05%, 48.77%, and 47.42%, respectively, ranking 2nd and 4th respectively among 2788 similar funds. The 10th and 18th places are the most eye-catching funds in the year.
Short-term adjustment does not change strategic optimism
"21st Century": How do you view the adjustments that have occurred since the recent market surge, and what is the impact on the market outlook?
Qianhai Kaiyuan Qiu Jie: This adjustment is normal. Although we are optimistic about the A-share market for a long time, the sustained rapid increase, especially the large increase in some fundamentally weak stocks, is not conducive to the long-term healthy development of the market.
The short-term ups and downs of the market are difficult to predict, but combined with the valuation and fundamentals, we still have a strategically optimistic view of A-shares. The first is the economic level. Although the short-term economy and corporate earnings are still under pressure, policy makers are making major reforms through policies such as tax cuts, support for the private economy, promotion of capital market reforms, and expansion of opening up to guide China's economy. The growth path of the transformation will also bring about more sustainable growth of the intrinsic value of the enterprise; secondly, the valuation level. Although the market has experienced a certain degree of increase in the near future, the overall valuation of the A shares is still relatively relative in 10 years. Low, currently still buying A-share quality assetsHershey'smachine.
Jin Ying Chen Li: In the face of the downward pressure on the economy, we may also face poor economic data. Under a series of countercyclical policies such as tax cuts and fees reduction, it is necessary to observe when the downward pressure on the economy ends. Many listed companies with poor quality have to face the market test of annual or quarterly reports. These may put some pressure on the market in the short term.
But we need to be strategically optimistic about investment. In the medium to long term, the current undervalued equity market is a good investment time. If the investment time is lengthened and seen farther, the oscillations and corrections that the short-term market may face are staged fluctuations, which are good investment opportunities in the medium and long term.
Bo Shi Zengpeng: The sharp rise of A shares in this round is actually more about the restoration of the valuation system last year. Last year, the overall market valuation pricing was ineffective, and this year only the normal valuation pricing system was restored. Even if it rises to the present, the market is still not bubbled, and the valuation is still relatively reasonable. There are many driving factors behind the surge, and the root cause lies in the recovery of confidence and reform expectations.
Keep high positions and operate properly
"21st Century": Can you summarize the changes in your position this year? Is the fund stock position you manage currently at a high level?
Yinhua Liu Hui: I pay more attention to the changes in the fundamentals of the industry and the company, and regard the market ups and downs as an area that is difficult to grasp, and not too concerned about the timing of positions.
I am used to the investment cycle of 1 to 3 years and generally do not participate in short-term transactions. The basic idea is to make a reasonable and reasonable valuation based on the understanding of the industry and the state of the company's performance changes, at least one year after the company's profitability and competitive landscape. If the price is basically consistent with the fundamental state of the deduction after one year, then the holder will sell or lighten the position if the investment sentiment is excessive. If the negative investment sentiment pushes too much, it will buy or increase the position.
Qianhai Kaiyuan Qiujie: Since the fourth quarter of 2018, the funds I have managed have maintained a high position. From the current point of view, the A-share market as a whole is still in a safe range with a low valuation, and there is no systematic downside risk. Therefore, I will maintain a high equity position, with a selection of leading stocks with certain performance growth, attractive valuation and strong competitive advantage.
Golden Eagle Chen Li: We are relatively optimistic about this year's equity market, in the positionMeetingMore aggressive.
"21st Century": After the short-term stock market rises too fast, what will affect your investment strategy? Will it take a take profit action?
Yinhua Liu Hui: Under the tone of the oscillating market, I will insist on investing in the agricultural sector and the technology industry chain, and will also increase the allocation of consumer stocks as the basic allocation at the appropriate time. In addition, the new energy automobile industry chain is an industry with 10 times growth space in the future, and the allocation of this industry chain will continue. One thing that will last is that I will deploy industries and companies whose competitive landscape and profit changes will continue to go up in the next 1-3 years.
Qianhai Kaiyuan Qiujie: My investment is mainly focused on stocks that are cost-effective and sustainable, and I hope to make money through the continuous growth of corporate value. Recently, the market has rapidly warmed up, and the stock price of some stocks has risen tremendously. If some stocks exceed the reasonable range of my estimate and the value of future growth of the company is overdrafted, then when the price/performance ratio of the investment is not high, I will choose to sell. Replace other companies with better risk-to-benefit ratios. At present, there are still a few stocks with price overdraft value. The overall valuation of A shares is still at a relatively low level and still has a high investment value. Therefore, my strategy is still to select those companies with high cost performance and hold them through purchase. Strategy to share the benefits of company value growth.
Consensus on growth opportunities for growth stocks
"21st Century": Many institutions believe that this year's A-shares will be a diversified market. Who do you think is greater for blue-chip and small-cap stocks?
Bo Shi Zengpeng: A-share is a huge investment market, with different styles and opportunities. Value and growth are not the opposite itself, but different stages of business development. For me personally, I prefer to invest in emerging industries, but it does not mean that companies in the growth industry have no value blue chips. Therefore, we are more from the perspective of industry to choose the direction of investment based on the degree of industry boom.
Qianhai Kaiyuan Qiujie: Whether it is the style switching of large-cap blue-chips and small and medium-sized brands, or the market rotation of various industries, the essence is driven by changes in macro, policy, capital, industry and company. Therefore, it is more important to grasp the fundamental factors in research and investment decisions. I will base on the company's fundamentals, comprehensively consider the impact of the above factors, and will not deliberately pay attention to whether the style switch, industry rotation.
"21st Century": After experiencing the previous upswing, at which stage are you more optimistic about which industries or sectors investment opportunities?
Yinhua Liuhui: The core direction of this year is: the agricultural year, the first year of science and technology. This judgment is gradually clear and firm after the stock price collapse of the growth company in October 2018. I will seriously practice the judgment of this basic strategic direction in the later investment process.
The agricultural year is because this opportunity is big enough, but how long it is, is uncertain. The opportunity of agriculture is an opportunity brought about by the power of things going round and round. The opportunity of science and technology is an opportunity given by China in the specific stage of historical development. 2018 is an important year, leaving a mark of history for many people in this country. This historical imprint has enabled the country to reach a consensus on technology from large to strong from top to bottom, and has formed an unprecedented intensity of demand. The strategic wrangling between China and the United States also points the way for the development of our technology. This historical imprint is an era node. We need to be aware of the pulsating changes in the times.
Therefore, we will continue to invest in the agricultural and technology industry chains this year. Of course, we will also increase the proportion of consumer stocks at the appropriate time, because good consumer companies have the advantage of time value.
Qianhai Kaiyuan Qiujie: At present, it is mainly optimistic about TMT, agriculture, non-silver finance and other industries.
TMT includes communications, information technology and media. Under the background of building 5G, the innovation of communication technology will bring about a series of industrial changes, including information exchange and integration, advanced manufacturing and other fields with large space, good growth and strong scalability. At present, the valuation of many high-quality enterprises is still at a historically low level. Based on the characteristics of its beneficial policy support and endogenous high growth, the current time point has a good investment cost performance.
I am also optimistic about the agricultural sector. Because China's livestock and poultry breeding industry has a large space for efficiency improvement, it is still a blue ocean market for high-quality enterprises. The obvious competitive advantage means that there is still a lot of room for improvement. We judge that some high-quality listed companies will have investment opportunities in both volume and price in the next few years.
For the non-bank financial sector, I thinkBrokerThe industry may enter a new cycle of profitable growth in the innovation industry. Direct financing is crucial for the development of emerging industries, and the capital market will face major changes. The establishment of the science and technology sector, the trial system of the registration system, and the release of derivatives will allow the securities industry to usher in important development opportunities, among which the quality enterprises will be fast. Develop and grow.
Jin Ying Chen Li: My personal investment style is to follow the trend of industrial development, micro-selected stocks, mainly based on growth stocks. Committed to exploring major investment opportunities that can form obvious resonance effects between macro, industry and company, we will continue to pay attention to the science and technology field. In the case of comprehensive assessment of risks and benefits, we will also re-allocate some industries that we think are more likely.
We will focus on 5G, artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, semiconductors, etc. in the field of technology. In addition, new energy, medical health, etc. are also our medium and long-term optimistic investment directions.
Foreign capital and housing funds are key
"21st Century": Does foreign investment have a big impact, and where will the funds come from?
Qianhai Kaiyuan Qiu Jie: Foreign capital inflows have a positive effect on reshaping the ecology of the A-share market. With the proportion of MSCIs included in A-shares expanding from 5% to 20%, it is expected to bring hundreds of billions this year.Net inflowfunds. In the future, the proportion of A-shares will continue to increase, resulting in continued foreign capital inflows and will become an important force in the A-share market.
In addition to foreign capital, the proportion of China's resident wealth in equity assets is much lower than that of developed countries, and it has better potential for improvement.
I think that the next decadereal estateThe value and proportion of the resident asset allocation will decrease significantly, and the proportion of stock assets will continue to increase. These are the sources of continuous funding.
(Article source: 21st Century Business Herald)