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People's Daily: The trend of the economy is gradually emerging

March 15, 2019 06:56
source: People's daily

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People’s Daily reported on March 15 that at the press conference of the State Council’s new office on March 14, Mao Shengyong, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the economy continued to operate in a reasonable range from January to February, maintaining overall stability, stability and progress. The situation is gradually showing a good trend.

  The economy is running steadily and is reflected in four aspects.

In Mao Shengyong's view, the "stable" economic operation in January-February is mainly reflected in four aspects.

Domestic demand has risen steadily. Look at investment, January-FebruaryFixed asset investmentThe growth rate was 6.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that of the previous year. It has shown a steady recovery since September last year. See consumption, January-FebruaryThe total retail sales of social consumer goodsIt grew by 8.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was the same as that of December last year. Looking at the leading indicators, the total investment for the newly started projects in January-February increased by 4.9% year-on-year, an increase of 22.6 percentage points over the previous year. "From these indicators, it can be expected that domestic demand is expected to continue to grow steadily and steadily." Mao Shengyong said.

Structural optimization continues. From the production side, from January to February, the added value of strategic emerging industries increased by 10.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate was faster than that of all industries above designated size by 4.8 percentage points; modern service industries such as information transmission, software and information technology maintained a high level of 26.5%. Growth. From the demand side, private investment increased by 7.5% year-on-year, and the proportion of private investment in total investment continued to increase compared with the same period of the previous year; the investment in the tertiary industry increased by 6.5%, and the growth rate was 0.4 percentage points higher than the total investment.

Employment prices are generally stable. The national urban survey unemployment rate in February was 5.3%, lower than the annual target. January-February consumer priceCPIThe average increase was 1.6%, continuing the trend of moderate increase. If the energy and food prices are excluded, the core CPI will basically stabilize at a reasonable level of 1.8%-1.9% for more than half a year.

The market is expecting a positive trend. In February,Consumer confidence indexIt is 2.3 points higher than in January.PMIThe new order index rose by 1.0 percentage points from January, and the RMB exchange rate remained stable overall.foreign exchange reservesIt has increased for four consecutive months. “These are all comprehensive reflections of market confidence.” Mao Shengyong said that from the current situation, the average daily power consumption in the first 10 days of March increased by double digits in the same period of last year, March 1st to 9th.import and exportThe growth rate is above 20%, and the trend is getting better.

  The employment situation is generally stable, and structural contradictions need attention.

Although the economic operation is generally stable, the slightly volatile unemployment rate has caused concern. In January and February this year, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.1% and 5.3%, respectively, lower than the expected target of 5.5%, up 0.1% and 0.3% respectively, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.

According to Li Xiru, director of the Population and Employment Statistics Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, the fluctuation of indicators was affected by the slowdown in external demand, and the employment of some export-oriented enterprises decreased. "More importantly, before and after the Spring Festival, during the peak period of replacement work, many people, especially migrant workers, resigned from work before the festival, and they re-find their jobs after the holidays. The increase in frictional unemployment led to an increase in unemployment."

Although the indicators have fluctuated, the employment situation is generally stable. Post-holiday enterprise employment special projects carried out by the National Bureau of Statistics in 22 provincesResearchIt shows that the company resumes normal work after the holiday, and the return rate of employees on time is high. About 80% of the companies return to the job rate is over 90%. According to the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, in the January-February this year, the number of new jobs in urban areas was 1.74 million, which was maintained at a relatively high level.

While the employment situation remains generally stable, the structural contradictions that are difficult to find employment and difficult to recruit are more prominent and need to be concerned. According to Li Xiru, some college graduates and some older and low-skilled laborers did not match the market demand, resulting in misplaced supply and demand and becoming a major group for employment difficulties. At the same time, the shortage of technical talents urgently needed by enterprises is serious. According to the data of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, in recent years, the rate of seeking labor for skilled workers has been above 1.5, and the rate of seeking for senior technicians has even exceeded 2.0.

"The Central Economic Work Conference will place steady employment at the head of 'Six Stability'. This year's government work report puts the employment priority policy at the macro policy level for the first time, and constantly strengthens the orientation of employment and support for employment in all aspects. Implementation, solidly do employment of key groups, strengthen employment difficulties, help reduce and reduce enterprisesSocial securityMeasures such as the burden of payment, strengthening support for flexible employment and new forms of employment, and implementing vocational skills upgrading will be fully implemented, and the employment situation will remain stable. Li Xiru said.

  Transformation and upgrading have become an important factor driving the growth of manufacturing investment

From January to February, the national fixed asset investment started smoothly. How is the investment stabilized? Wang Baobin, senior statistician of the Investment Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, analyzed that since the second half of 2018, the state has increased its support for short-board policy and accelerated the issuance of local special bonds. Especially since the beginning of the year, local special bonds have been issued at the end of February of 307.8 billion yuan. . "With the steady investment policy at the national level, the regions have also been actively promoting the relevant policies to promote the implementation of major investment projects." The above measures have effectively boosted investment in short-board areas such as infrastructure.

From January to February, infrastructure investment increased by 4.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.5 percentage points higher than that of the previous year. It continued the trend of stabilization and recovery since the fourth quarter of last year. Among them, the railway transportation industry investment increased by 22.5%, an increase of 27.6 percentage points over the whole of last year. In addition, due to the accelerated construction progress of the project and the rapid growth of land acquisition fees, from January to February,real estateDevelopment investment increased by 11.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 2.1 percentage points higher than that of last year.

While the investment scale has maintained a steady recovery, the investment structure has continued to optimize. Transformation and upgrading have become an important factor driving the growth of manufacturing investment. From January to February, manufacturing investment increased by 5.9% year-on-year. Although the growth rate dropped by 3.6 percentage points from the previous year, it was still 1.6 percentage points higher than the same period of last year. Among them, the technological innovation investment in manufacturing increased by 19.5%, the growth rate was 4.6 percentage points higher than that of the whole year of last year, and it was 13.6 percentage points higher than the total manufacturing investment.

Private investment continued to maintain steady growth. From January to February, private investment increased by 7.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.4 percentage points higher than the total investment, which was 2 percentage points higher than that of state-owned holding investment.

(Article source: People's Daily)

                (Editor: DF155)

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