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Yang Delong: Negative factors in the second quarter gradually eliminated A-shares or the second wave of rising opportunities

March 15, 2019 08:00
source: Yang Delong's Macro Strategy Research

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Summary
[Yang Delong: In the second quarter, the negative factors will gradually eliminate the A-share or the second-wave rising opportunity] To truly embrace the “Golden Decade” of A-shares, we must adhere to value investment. Value investing has also proven to be the most effective way to invest, and it allows you to get good returns in long-term investments. The author hopes that value investment can take root in the A-share market and carry forward, so that more investors can share the benefits of value investment, and can truly embrace the “Golden Decade” of A-shares. (Yang Delong Macro Strategy Research)

In the past two days, there has been some shock adjustment in the A-share market, especially the decline in the GEM. After a week of rapid growth, the market profit-taking pressure increased, forBrokerIt is strictly forbidden that the bad news of external fund-raising has triggered a panic in some funds, causing the GEM to plummet.

The rise in this round of the market has exceeded the expectations of many people, and many investors have been attracted by the market and started to allocate funds. Some of them are funded through on-site financing, while others are funded through off-market and gain higher leverage. In 2015, the A-share market broke out of the big bull market. At that time, there was a lot of over-the-counter fund-raising, which led to a sharp increase in market risk. After many investors have invested in the capital, they have bought some short-term stocks that have risen too much in the short term, causing a sharp increase in the market bubble. Now learn from the lessons of 2015. From the very beginning, the regulatory authorities require brokers to strictly check the off-site fund-raising, prohibiting some highly leveraged fund-raising, regulating the operation of the market and making the A-share market healthier. Only a slow cow will benefit more investors. In fact, there are very few investors who can really make money in the fast cows. Investors are over-leveraged and can cause huge losses once the market falls. Therefore, the strict supervision of the over-the-counter fundraising by the regulatory authorities is conducive to the steady rise of the market.

For the next ten years, the author believes that 2019 is the starting point for the long-term slow cattle in the next decade. The A-share market will usher in the "Golden Decade", and the biggest beneficiary is undoubtedly the brokerage stocks, because brokerage stocks can get more trading volume and other business income in the bull market. Therefore, in the bull market, the brokers should be more consistent. At present, brokerage stocks have already stepped out of the first wave of market, and investors who re-distribute brokerages have also obtained large profits. As long as the A-share market goes out of the slow-moving market, the brokerage stocks will have further performance, so it is recommended that you can smash the securities stocks to increase the allocation of such varieties.

Yesterday, brokerage stocks strengthened again, and many brokerage stocks rose more than 5%, which is also a proof that the market's funds are optimistic. Therefore, for the brokerage stocks, the author repeatedly emphasized that it can be used as a configuration of the bull market or as a weather vane for observing the market. The strength of brokerage stocks is undoubtedly the best representation of the market may go further and further expand the space. The "golden decade" of the A-share market will also become the "golden decade" for the development of China's securities companies. The possibility that a group of leading brokers will become international big brokers will exist, which will undoubtedly give investment to investment-related companies. Bring excess returns.

When foreign capital was the lowest in the market last year, it decisively flowed into the A-share market, and the annual inflow of A shares was close to 300 billion yuan. In the beginning of this year, foreign capital accelerated into A-shares, and the amount of inflows exceeded 100 billion yuan. The recent rapid rise in the market has indeed brought huge returns to foreign investment. In the short term, some foreign capital began to take profits and there was a net outflow. In fact, we don't have to pay too much attention to the short-term flow of these funds. Foreign capital is not a monolithic one. It is composed of many institutional investors and individual investors, so the inflow and outflow of funds are normal. We need to focus on the direction of foreign capital inflows and outflows in a medium to long term.

This year, foreign capital has flowed into some of the leading stocks of A-shares. There are two stocks:Han nationality laserHemei has been bought by foreign capital, commonly known as "buy explosion." This shows that foreign capital is optimistic about China's high-quality enterprises, especially some leading stocks in the industry, which are more likely to be sought after by foreign investors. Many of the stocks that foreign capital inflows are stocks that everyone thinks are not cheap. The firm inflow of foreign capital actually indicates that foreign investment is still firmly optimistic about the value of these stock investments.

Looking forward to the future market trend: In the second quarter, with the elimination of some negative factors, especially in the second quarter trade negotiations are expected to reach a framework agreement to further eliminate market concerns, the A-share market may have a second wave of opportunities.

When the market was the most fascinating in October last year, it is recommended that everyone pay attention to three directions, namely, technology + brokerage leader + consumption. Now brokerages and technology leading stocks have taken the lead in launching a fast-rising trend. The overall increase in consumer stocks is not large. butGuizhou MaotaiLeading consumer stocks have already started, close to the previous highs. Consumer stocks are also expected to see a sharp upward trend in the second quarter, suggesting that investors can actively configure.

Overall, the current A-share market has gradually moved away from the bottom zone and rebounded above 3,000 points. It is normal to have a certain shock in the market near 3000 points. At this time, we must overcome the hesitation of the mind, and firmly adjust to add high-quality stocks. Because the A-share market is not just a simple rebound, but a round of reversal. The A-share market will come out of a slow-moving long-term bull market.

To truly embrace the "Golden Decade" of A-shares, we must adhere to value investment. Value investing has also proven to be the most effective way to invest, and it allows you to get good returns in long-term investments. The author hopes that value investment can take root in the A-share market and carry forward, so that more investors can share the benefits of value investment, and can truly embrace the “Golden Decade” of A-shares.

(Article source: Yang Delong Macro Strategy Research)

                (Editor: DF078)

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